Ellis Starr's Blog - AmWager

  • 18
    MAY

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, May 19

    Maryland Sprint Stakes – Race 10 at Pimlico - Post Time 4:05 PM Eastern

    Lewisfield has done little wrong in his career, with five victories in 7 races including a win in a restricted stakes when last seen in March. Bocachica has been the only pilot he's known and rides back and the horse has proven capable of winning when leading from the start or if he has to sit in 2nd or 3rd in the early stages. The 114 Equibase figure put forth in his last win was a career best and tops in the field and there's every reason to believe that effort can be repeated or bettered here.

    Heartwood can ALSO be bet if for no other reason than he opens at 15/1 and has a legitimate shot. He posted the 15/1 upset in a tough classified allowance field on a sloppy track one before last and he won at stakes race with a 200K purse last fall so there's no doubt he fits at the level. Geroux was up for the April upset and rides back as the colt cuts back from a mile to six furlongs, which helps his chances to be closing strongly in the final stages.

    Long Haul Bay has won 3 of 4 career starts and the one he didn't win led to a layoff so can be ignored. He returned from 10 months off last month to win nicely and was flattered when the runner-up came back to win. That win earned a 103 figure that should be improved upon 2nd off the layoff but still isn't in range of the 114 effort Lewisfield put forth but considering Brown's success this year (and before that) the colt could improve enough to win.

    Irish Colonel, like Heartwood, opens at double digit odds that warrant scrutiny. He missed by a neck when last seen at the end of March and won prior to that, the win earning a 111 figure similar to the 110 figure effort put forth last November at the distance. As a horse that's been 1st or 2nd in 15 of 30 career starts, he is an absolute must for inclusion on any exacta tickets we play at the very least. We should also add Fellowship to the bottom of exacta tickets played as he could run as he did in February on a sloppy track when finishing fast for second.

    Bets: Lewisfield to win at 2 to 1 or more.

    Heartwood to win at 7 to 2 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

    Irish Colonel to win at 4 to1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Lewisfield, Heartwood, Long Haul Bay and Irish Colonel over Lewisfield, Heartwood, Long Haul Bay, Irish Colonel and Fellowship.

     

    Preakness Stakes – Race 13 at Pimlico - Post Time 6:48 PM Eastern

    Bravazo will be my top choice to win the Preakness Stakes by repeating his effort when winning the Risen Star Stakes in February, posting the upset and returning $44 for $2. At the time, Bravazo was making his second start as a three year old and second following a layoff, coming off a 104 Equibase Speed Figure effort when winning one month earlier. In the Risen Star, Bravazo won gamely by a neck to earn a career best 110 figure when improving nicely in his second race off the rest. In the Louisiana Derby, I cannot say what went wrong when as the second betting choice (5 to 2) Bravazo faded badly to eighth after being up close in third in the early stages. However, his effort two weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby was pretty good as he rallied four to five paths wide while moving up from eleventh to fourth over the course of three furlongs until he flattened out in mid-stretch to end up sixth. In the Preakness Bravazo will have to deal with a lot less traffic and if jockey Luis Saez is able to get him into second or third with about a half-mile to go, as was the case in the Risen Star, this colt can post the upset because the 110 figure earned in that race is as good as the figure Justify earned winning the Kentucky Derby. Lukas is no stranger to posting the upset in this race, having done so with Oxbow a few years back, who like Bravazo was owned by Calumet Farm and was a son of Awesome Again .

    Justify is unbeaten in four starts and has improved his Equibase figure in each, going from 106 in his career debut to 110 winning the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, Justify was able to beat 18 other horses out of the gate to secure second position early, avoiding the mud and water flying everywhere over the very sloppy track and that had to have been a significant factor in his success as he held his two and one-half length margin over Good Magic the entire last eighth of a mile. With many less horses to be in front of at the start of the Preakness, Justify is as likely, or even more so, to be in front in the opening strides, but in the event Quip or Diamond King (who are drawn inside of Justify in the gate) get the lead that should not be an issue as he has raced in second or third in the early stages in two of his four victories. As such, it would come as no surprise that the Derby winner takes the Preakness, following in the footsteps of I'll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (2015).

    Good Magic ran his heart out in the Derby, chasing Justify for the final half-mile but making up no ground. After a poor effort in his 2018 return to the races when third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March, Good Magic redeemed himself nicely with victory in the Blue Grass Stakes, earning a 104 figure in the process. In spite of being no match for the Derby winner, Good Magic improved to a 106 figure in the race and is set to improve again back to the form shown when winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall with a 109 figure. Considering how close that effort would be to the one Justify put forth two weeks ago and considering Good Magic is making his fourth start of 2018 compared to Justify making his fifth start of the year, it is conceivable Good Magic may have enough improvement forthcoming to turn the tables on his nemesis in the Preakness.

     

    Lone Sailor is not a win contender in my opinion but can certainly be second or third at the end to complete any exacta or trifecta tickets played. Lone Sailor improved markedly in the Louisiana Derby with a career best 106 figure, that being his third start of the year. He then had a trip similar to Bravazo in the Kentucky Derby in which Lone Sailor moved up from 15th to sixth with an eighth of a mile to go before flattening out and ending up eighth. With less traffic in the Preakness, Lone Sailor may be passing many of these late and could earn a big chunk of the purse.

    Bets: Bravazo to win at 2 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

    Exacta: Bravazo, Justify and Good Magic over Lone Sailor, Bravazo, Justify and Good Magic.

    Trifecta: Bravazo, Justify and Good Magic over Lone Sailor, Bravazo, Justify and Good Magic over Lone Sailor, Bravazo, Justify and Good Magic.

    Doubles: Bravazo, Justify and Good Magic in Race 13 with Phil's Cocktail, Ugottahaveheart, Iredell and Appealing Future in Race 14.

    Race 14 at Pimlico – Post Time 7:35 Eastern

    Phil's Cocktail is a tough claiming pro, with 11 first or second place efforts in his last 21 races. He qualified for this 5K starter allowance race when he raced for 5K last December, likely something Brooks noticed when he claimed the horse for 7,500 out of a runner-up effort on 3/30. Winning two later, just SIX days ago, easily at the 15K level in the mud OVER THE TRACK, Phil's Cocktail has a big shot to win once again and make even more profit off the claim six weeks ago.

    Appealing Future is 5 for 15 in his career, not bad at all, including a win in a 50K allowance race in Pennsylvania one before last on 4/7. He finished 2nd over a sloppy track prior to that and 4th since then against open allowance company so this is a DROP in class as this 5K starter level is the equivalent of a 10K claiming race. With Javier Castellano staying around for the last race on a big card, for high percentage trainer Servis, there is every reason to believe Appealing Future is live and has the talent to win the nightcap.

    Ugottahaveheart and Iredell are both proven at the level, hence open as the top two betting choices at 3/1 and 5/2, respectively. Ugottahaveheart won at this level twice in January and in his most recent start on 3/30 but has never raced over the Pimlico surface, a small knock, while Iredell moves back to dirt after a poor effort on turf and won by 6 lengths, over Ugottahaveheart, on 2/15 as well as won at Pimlico last May. He has more 2nd place finishes (10) than wins (8) so although a MUST to use on exacta tickets he doesn't have to win.

    Bets: Phil's Cocktail to win at 5 to 2 or more.

    Appealing Future to win at 3 to 1 or higher.

    Exactas: Phil's Cocktail and Appealing Future over Phil's Cocktail and Appealing Future, Ugottahaveheart and Iredell.

    Then also the reverse of the above, which is Phil's Cocktail and Appealing Future, Ugottahaveheart and Iredell over Phil's Cocktail and Appealing Future.

    Frans Valentine Stakes – Race 9 at Santa Anita – Post Time 8 Eastern (5 Pacific)

    Shy Carmelita has mostly run on dirt throughout her 14 race career, with 3 wins in 11 races on the main track. However, she won on the turf when last seen on 4/1 in her 3rd turf try and was 2nd in another last summer before taking seven months off. With a lot of improvement to show us 3rd off the layoff, this gal who is a full sister to multiple winner Grazenette and who moves from open (not restricted) 2nd level allowance company to this statebred stakes level (a lateral class move and possibly a drop in class) has a big shot to run as well as she did when last seen on the course, earning a field high last race 112 Equibase figure that beats these on the square if repeated, for the always dangerous D'Amato barn and with Talamo riding right back.

    Barbara Beatrice is another very competitive mare, with 9 first or 2nd place finishes in 18 races, a subset of which is a 7 for 10 record first or second on turf. She's won at this mile trip and she's won at Santa Anita and she was 2nd in a similar Cal-Bred stakes race (but on dirt) last November so she fits on all counts for a top effort.

    Cordiality won at this mile turf trip one race before her last, in March, at the same openNW2X allowance condition Shy Carmelita won at (but sprinting) last time out. The mare is7 for 20 in her career with another six runner-up efforts for good measure but oddly enough even though a Cal-Bred hasn't run in one of these restricted stakes races. Baze rode her to her last three wins, all when leading or 2nd in the early stages, and although her outside post may not be the best for her style there's no taking away from the fact her best effort may be good enough to win.

    Moonless Sky finished 2nd in an identical race last summer and was 2nd in last year's edition of this stakes. She won last fall at a mile on grass in an open NW2X level race similar to the other contenders and the only knock relative to those is she opens at the lowest odds, 7/2 on the morning line.

    Longshot consideration must be given to Speakers and Lynne's Legacy, the former with the ground saving rail and coming out of a very troubled effort, before that with a win at this mile trip over the course, and the latter running first off the O'Neill claim, out of the first time she was EVER eligible to be claimed, and a decent runner-up effort at that. She's a multiple turf route winner versus Cal-Breds and her 15/1 morning line is intriguing. O'Neill also saddles How About Zero, who stretches back out to a mile off a pair of sprints and who missed by a head in that mile turf race three back after leading in the stretch.

     

    Bets: Shy Carmelita to win at 5 to 2 or more.

    Barbara Beatrice to win at 3 to 1 or more.

    Cordiality to win at 7 to 2 or higher.

    When making or considering multiple horses for win bets, use a "Dutching" tool like that found at Amwager, which helps allocate your betting dollars for the best return.

    Exacta: Box Shy Carmelita, Barbara Beatrice, Cordiality and Moonless Sky.

    Exacta: Shy Carmelita, Barbara Beatrice, Cordiality and Moonless Sky over Shy Carmelita, Barbara Beatrice, Cordiality, Moonless Sky, Speakers, Lynne's Legacy and How About Zero.

    Read more...
  • 11
    MAY

    Key Bets & Races for Saturday, May 12th

    Vagrancy Handicap – Race 3 at Belmont Park - Post Time 2:34 PM Eastern

    Kirby's Penny is six for 11 in her career. Better still, she's 5 for 7 on dirt, all since last April. She finished second in the other two dirt starts. She's absolutely ready for grade 3 competition as she faces today with John Velazquez riding as for two big wins last summer at Saratoga and her most recent win, on April 8, came off a 6 month layoff and the effort should be improved upon 2nd off the rest. Opening at 6 to 1, she's exceptionally playable.

    Swing and Sway is another very playable horse, opening at 12 to 1, having just won the Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn and two before that the American Beauty Stakes. She's now 5 for 15 in her career and could also be very competitive here. There are no real knocks on any of the other four, but Holiday Disguise, who opens at 9/5, hasn't any more probability than the rest. Sure, she won the similar G3 Distaff Stakes last month at Aqueduct, but it wasn’t any better of an effort nor was the horse she beat, Sounds Delicious (who was disqualified from 2nd to 4th) anything really special in terms of this field.

    Win Bets: Kirby's Penny at odds of 2 to 1 or more and Swing and Sway at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Place bets may be warranted at 5 to 1 or higher.

    The most efficient way to bet multiple horses to win is to use a "Dutching" tool like the one available at Amwager, which helps allocated your betting dollars for the best return.

    Runhappy Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont Park- Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

    Always Sunshine is EVERY bit as likely to win as favorite's Skyler's Scramjet and Westwood, but opens at 12/1. He returns from a layoff since last July but won his 2017 debut by four lengths off a layoff since the previous October so that's not an issue. Winner of nearly $400,000 in his career and first or second in 10 of 18 dirt races, he will be ignored by many in this race compared to others. Back in 2016, Always Sunshine finished 2nd in the Grade 3 Tom Fool Stakes on the circuit, the same race Skyler's Scramjet won in March of this year. Later that spring he won the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint with a career best 118 Equibase Figure and in his last start of 2017 earned a 109 figure which stacks up favorably against the favorites here if repeated.

    King Kranz goes for his 3rd win in a row since moving to the Rodriguez barn and Iran Ortiz, Jr. rides back after being up for the first time last month in a strong win. The comeback win in March earned a 108 figure and opening at 9/2 we cannot rule him out as a contender to win.

    Skyler's Scramjet can't be labeled a vulnerable favorite as the drop from grade 1 company in the Carter Handicap last time out helps his chances to return to winning form, and Westwood is another with a shot although his first graded stakes attempt last month wasn't good as he faded to 5th in the stretch after leading.

    Win Bets: Always Sunshine to win and to place at 2 to 1 or more.

    Exacta: Always Sunshine and King Kranz over Always Sunshine, King Kranz, Skyler's Scramjet and Westwood (as there's no point in using the two favorites with each other for 1st & 2nd), then ALSO the opposite, which is Always Sunshine, King Kranz, Skyler's Scramjet and Westwood over Always Sunshine and King Kranz.

    Peter Pan Stakes – Race 10 at Belmont Park – Post Time 6:18 Eastern

    Just Whistle earned the best last race Equibase figure, 106, when winning last month at Keeneland. That was his second start of the year and a big improvement off his runner-up effort one month prior which followed six months away from the races. As a son of Pioneer of the Nile there is little doubt Just Whistle can successfully negotiate the mile and one-eighth distance of the Peter Pan. As a horse on a pattern for significant improvement in his third start off a layoff, he appears to be the one to beat in this race.

    High North earned his first win last fall in his third career start, then tried stakes company and was not disgraced when fourth of 14 in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After taking the winter off, he was entered in the Risen Star Stakes without a prep first and ran poorly, then again in the Rebel Stakes. Adding blinkers for the Northern Spur Stakes next out, he returned to top form, earning a 105 figure when drawing off by two and one-half lengths in a field of eight. Trainer Brad Cox is still on a high from winning the Kentucky Oaks with Monomoy Girl last weekend and his 30% success rate with back-to-back winners in dirt routes over the past two years is another reason supporting High North potentially winning his second stakes race in a row.

    Blended Citizen needs a hot pace in front of him to succeed, as occurred in March when rallying to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks by a neck with a 109 figure. Following that effort, Blended Citizen tried to earn enough points for a Kentucky Derby start by running in the Blue Grass Stakes but could only manage a fifth place finish. In the Peter Pan, with the prospect for a hotly contested pace unlikely, Blended Citizen may be hard pressed to pass the field to win but it is not an impossible task and so he will round out the three horses with the best chance to win this year's Peter Pan Stakes.

    I'm completely taking a stand against Core Beliefs, shipping out from California and overbet off his 3rd place effort in the Santa Anita Derby behind Justify.

    Win Bets: Just Whistle at 2 to 1 or more, a TRUE KEY BET on the day.

    A win bet on High North is warranted at 3 to 1 or more.

    Exacta: Box Just Whistle, High North and Blended Citizen.

    Man O' War Stakes – Race 11 at Belmont Park – Post Time 6:50 Eastern

    Postulation can post the upset in this year's Man O'War, or even finish 2nd for a big profit. He SHOULD NOT be 20/1 on the morning line considering his record in similar races, including a head loss in the Kentucky Turf Cup last summer and a win in the American St. Leger prior to that. The jockey change to Vargas, mostly unknown to local betters, helps his odds but there is no concern because Vargas was aboard for BOTH the aforementioned stakes efforts. After the Kentucky Turf Cup, Postulation finished 8th of 10 in the Canadian International (run on a very soft course) then took time off. When returning last month off a six month layoff, he ran BIG by rallying from 4th to battle down the stretch before tiring just a bit to be beaten a pair of necks on the wire. With 8 first or second place finishes in 16 turf races and nearly $400K in earnings, and proven at marathon distances, and possibly more importantly much stronger 2nd off the layoff, Postulation gets a BIG push here.

    Almost as likely and certainly as playable is One Go All Go, upset winner of the similar Elkhorn Stakes last month at Keeneland. He's now run BIG in five of his last six races since Dickey took over his training. Even though in four of those he finished 2nd he was never far afield and in two of those he finished just behind Hi Happy and Sadler's Joy, who open at much lower odds than the 6/1 starting odds for One Go All Go. As with the Elkhorn, there is very little of any other early pace in the race so if Landeros gets One Go All Go to the lead easily and slows things down, he could win his 2nd graded stakes in a row.

    There are no real knocks on Sadler's Joy, Hi Happy or some of the rest, but the key for profit is getting either Postulation or One Go All Go home on top, or even second.

    Win Bets: Postulation to win and place at 3 to 1 or more. One Go All Go to win and place at 3 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Postulation and One Go All Go over ALL, then also the opposite, which is ALL over Postulation and One Go All Go.

    Read more...
  • 04
    MAY

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, May 5

    Sheepshead Bay Stakes – Race 6 at Belmont Park - Post Time 3:30 PM Eastern

    Santa Monica showed a ton of promise as a future stakes star in her U.S. debut last month at Keeneland. That was her 1st start after 4 1/2 months off and first on Lasix and she swept past the field from last of 8 to be in front by 2 lengths at the 8th pole, drawing off from there. This step up from 2nd level allowance to grade 2 stakes is no big deal because Santa Monica was a group 3 stakes winner in Ireland last June and European group 3 races are equivalent to grade 2 races in the states. Likely to improve markedly 2nd off the layoff, Brown wastes no time taking a shot at a nice purse and although Gaffalione has never ridden here I have no issues because the jockey is 6 for 18 riding for Brown in the last 18 months. Even opening at 5/2 odds, or a bit lower, Santa Monica is truly a KEY BET because the favorite, Holy Helena, is vulnerable on many counts in this field. She won the Grade 2 Very One Stakes in March at Gulfstream Park when last seen but only earned a 98 Equibase figure in doing so, and a 97 prior to that winning a classified allowance. Santa Monica earned a 102 figure in her allowance win and whereas Holy Helena has run the same race twice, Santa Monica has upside in her 2nd race off the layoff.

     

    For the exacta, I'll try to keep Holy Helena out entirely and use Estrechada and Summersault, both having won at 11 furlongs or father on the grass so having no issues with this 11 furlong trip. Estrechada won the Grade 3 Waya Stakes last summer at Saratoga and her fourth place finish in her only start of the year can be improved upon, while Summersault won the non-graded Soaring Softly Stakes in March at Gulfstream Park at this trip and the last time she got into top form she held that form for three straight races including the Grade 3 Orchid Stakes at this distance on turf.

    Win Bets: Bet Santa Monica to win at 6 to 5 or higher, a true low odds overlay.

    Consider small win bets on Estrechada and Summersault at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    Exacta: Box Santa Monica, Estrechada and Summersault.

    Then also play an exacta of Santa Monica over Estrechada and Summersault.

     

    Fort Marcy Stakes – Race 10 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern

    Robert Bruce was a perfect six-for-six in his native Chile, winning at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile and one-half. He won one of the biggest turf races in South America last fall, a group 1 with a purse of $160K U.S. and he's been training steadily in Florida this spring for Brown, who gave him a whirl on the Belmont training track last week. Gaffalione rides and if Santa Monica runs as expected in the Sheepshead Bay that could give Brown and Gaffalione two stakes wins on the day. Brown is exceptional with horses coming off layoffs so the return from six months off is no issue, nor is it being his first start in the U.S. because again that is something Brown is exceptional at, winning with 25% (8 for 34) of his foreign imports in the past couple of years. As such, Robert Bruce could keep his perfect record intact with a win in this year's Fort Marcy Stakes.

     

    That being said, Lucullan SHOULD NOT BE 12/1 as he is on the morning line. With three wins in six turf races to date, the colt has shown a lot of talent and he's not overmatched at this grade 3 level as in his only stakes start last year he missed by inches to Yoshida in the Hill Prince Stakes at this trip last October. Lucullan won his 2018 debut in February nicely in allowance company then ran on late but too late, from 11th to 6th, in the Muniz Stakes at the end of March. He's another that has put in some nice works in the morning coming into the race and to ignore this exceptionally well-bred and competitive McLaughlin runner at these odds may prove to be a mistake.

     

    Spring Quality is another tough horse, with a record nearly as good as that of Robert Bruce. Spring Quality has five wins in nine races. Only one of those was on turf BUT it was a graded stakes, the Red Smith, last November. Graham Motion, like Brown, is one of those trainers I have no qualms about when they bring a horse back from a layoff so the fact Spring Quality hasn't raced since the November win is of no concern and he may actually have a shot of picking up where he left off, with a stakes win on grass.

     

    For the exacta, I will add Markitoff, who opens at 15/1. I am taking a stand against Blacktype (9/2 morning line) because his comeback on 4/8 just didn't indicated he could bounce up to the form necessary to win. I am also taking a stand against morning line favorite Silverwave, because I believe Robert Bruce should be the favorite. Silverwave is also trained by Brown but Chad goes to Carmouche and no matter that Kendrick is a good jockey he's just 1 for 7 for Brown in the last 18 year compared to 6 for 18 for the Brown/Gaffalione combination. Silverwave was last seen running in the Arc de Triomphe and that's the reason for his low odds but he was 87/1 in the race and ran like it when last of 18. His body of work before that includes 3 stakes wins at 12 furlongs so there is NO reason to believe he can win at this 9 furlong trip.

     

    Win Bets: Robert Bruce at 9 to 5 or higher, other low odds overlay Key Bet.

    Make a win bet on Lucullan at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 8 to 1 or higher.
    Additionally, a win bet on Spring Quality may be warranted at 5 to 1 or higher, for a smaller amount than either Robert Bruce or Lucullan.

    Exacta: Box Robert Bruce, Lucullan, Spring Quality and Markitoff.

    Westchester Stakes - Race 11 at Belmont Park - Post Time 7:07 Eastern

    This race marks the comeback of Cloud Computing, who opens at even money. Although the odds are a complete joke compared to the horse's probability to win, they are right because the public will bet him solely because he won the Preakness last year. Let's not forget, Cloud Computing was 13/1 that day, and then he ran pitifully in the Jim Dandy (5th) and Travers (8th) before going on the bench for more than a short respite, in this case eight months. Cloud Computing won his debut at six furlongs on the now gone Inner Dirt at Aqueduct and that's about as irrelevant is it can get comparing that to a start in a graded stakes at a mile around one turn. His best Equibase figure where he was even competitive was 101 in the Preakness and although he's likely stronger as a four year old even adding points to that, Cloud Computing isn't even close to how fast three others in here can run.

     

    First, Moe Trouble opens at 30/1, the exact opposite as Cloud Computing in terms of how bad the line is compared to reality. The horse has FIVE wins and SIX runner-up finishes in 16 races and $220K in the bank. Sure, he's been beating up on Pennsylvania breds but he's still a son of top sire Uncle Moe and his trainer is TOP NOTCH. Gonzalez is 40 for 160 on the year and 10 for 33 in stakes the past two years. The trainer has shipped to New York seven times in the past five years, with two wins and three runner-up efforts. Trainer Gonzalez likely looked at who was likely to enter here and said to himself "I can win the winner's share of this 200K purse, or at least a big piece of it and that's more than my horse can earn at Parx." Carmouche takes the call and with an inside position on the only other horse that may want the lead, Conquest Big E, Moe Trouble can finish first or second here as the longest shot in the field because in his last start, a two-turn mile, he led until the top of the stretch and settled for 2nd with a field high 117 Equibase figure that is a grade 2 level figure in this grade 3 stakes. Additionally, if you look at the Hardacre Mile on 3/31 won by Conquest Big E, with Tommy Macho 3rd, or any of Tommy Macho's losses in the Kelso or Forego you have to note he was beaten by a horse who controlled the pace. The only reason Tommy Macho won the Hooper was Conquest Big E hopped at the start. Therefore I think Moe Trouble is going to do what Conquest Big E did last out and lead from start to finish at double digit odds.

     

    If I'm right about Conquest Big E being forced to yield the early lead to Moe Trouble, he'll likely be in the second sport early. Although he's earned his last three wins leading start to finish, he did prove he could close when he hopped at the start, rallying from 6th to be beaten just 3/4 of a length. Batista comes up from Florida to ride the hard knocking gelding and his best race, with a 111 Equibase figure, is good enough to win if repeated if he can relax off the early speed of Moe Trouble and go by that one late.

     

    If I'm wrong about the pace and Conquest Big E and Moe Trouble hook up, Tommy Macho repeats his Fred Hooper score with a 107 figure, or his 2017 Hal's Hope win at the same one turn mile trip with a 114 figure. He could offer low odds value as well anywhere near his 5/2 morning line considering how overbet Cloud Computing is likely to be.

     

    Bets: Moe Trouble to win and place at 3 to 1 or more.

    Also consider a win bet on Conquest Big E at 7 to 2 or higher

    Consider a win bet on Tommy Macho at 2 to 1 or more, especially if you believe Conquest Big E and Moe Trouble are going to battle each other on the front end.

     

    Exactas: Moe Trouble over ALL and (The opposite) ALL over Moe Trouble.

    Read more...
  • 27
    APR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, April 28

    Woodbine – Race 7 - Post Time 4:27 PM Eastern

    We can play two races here, making some win and exacta wagers in this race and then tying the race in doubles to the Whimsical Stakes (Race 8) for added value.

     

    In this race, Singandcryindubai is one of two from the very high percentage McKnight barn, the other Abbaa. Although both can win, Singandcryindubai opens at 10/1 so that's where I'll start. The gelding is 3 for 6 at Woodbine, accounting for all but 1 of his career wins, and moves back to his favorite track after wintering at Oaklawn where he went 0 for 4. He's in for the optional claiming price ($60K) since he's already won at the level and the key to a BIG effort is Contreras getting on. Not only is Contreras off to a fast start with 5 wins from his first 16 races at the meeting but he was up for the horse's last two wins including one last October in which he rallied from eighth. The other was a race in which he led from start to finish so with that kind of versatility Singandcryindubai has a big shot to return to winning form.

     

    Abbaa missed by a neck last time out just three weeks ago at Oaklawn, first off the claim by McKnight, who as of a few days ago was 4 for 6 at the meeting so far. The veteran horse has won 10 times in his career but is trying all-weather for the first time. However, the 3 furlong drill just six days ago has him familiar with it so we can expect another "A" effort good enough to win.

     

    Circle of Friends makes his 2018 debut, for Tiller, who is pretty good with his comebackers at the start of the meeting. The horse won his 2017 debut by a head at this five furlong trip and as his last two start of 2017 were in blinkers and poor efforts, the blinkers come off for this race. With a very sharp half-mile drill on 4/9 following by a more moderate one, we can assume the horse is fit and can run as well today as he did last year at this time.

     

    Win Bets: Bet Singandcryindubai to win at 3 to 1 or more and add a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Box Singandincrydubai, Abbaa and Circle of Friends.

    Doubles: Singandcryindubai, Abbaa and Circle of Friends in Race 7 with Scotty's Model, Moonlit Promise and Sky Flower in Race 8. (You can also box those three horses in an exacta in race 8 as well).

     

    Santa Barbara Stakes – Race 4 at Santa Anita - Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern (1:30 Pacific)

    Causeforcommotion is the horse to beat here, and to bet, in spite of the 8/5 starting odds on Plein Air and the 2/1 starting odds on Pantsonfire. Causeforcommotion opens at 6/1 even though her last two efforts were the best of her short career (12 races) to date. She's never run this marathon 12 furlong trip but of the others, none has won at it except Plein Air anyway but Causeforcommotion is bred to run all day, as she's by Americain (a son of Dynaformer) and out of a mare by the late Giant's Causeway. She's just a four year old and has room to improve and jockey Franco (who replaces Roman) is underrated but has impressed with his prowess on the grass. The 107 last race Equibase figure is as good as Pantsonfire (who opens at one-third the odds) and MUCH better than the 94 figure Plein Air earned. Baltas saddled FOUR of the six here but no matter two of them (Space Cadet and Plein Air) both have the same "early" running style, those two should wear each other out mentally even on slow fractions while Causeforcommotion gets a great stalking trip for her 3rd win in a row, particularly as the race she won turned out to be strong with the runner-up coming back to win TWO in a row and the 3rd horse beaten a neck.

     

    Lucy De, Pantsonfire and Plein Air all have races in their recent past good enough to compete here and any can win but none offer value for win bets. We can use all three plus Causeforcommotion on any multi-race tickets played like the pick 3 and 4 and key them with Causeforcommotion on exacta tickets but the main play will be Causeforcommotion to win.

     

    Win Bets: Causeforcommotion to win at 2 to 1, a true KEY BET on the day.

    Exacta: Causeforcommotion over Lucy De, Pantsonfire and Plein Air, then also turn that around and play Lucy De, Pantsonfire and Plein Air over Causeforcommotion.

    Belmont - Race 8 – Post Time 5:18 Eastern

    Similar to what we did at Woodbine, the eighth at Belmont is very playable and we can tie it with the Elusive Quality Stakes, Race 9.

     

    Jewel Can Disco opens at 10/1 and is the one to catch, and beat, even though it looks like there is other early speed in the race. Davis, who rode him to a runner-up finish last out and to a win before that, jumps to Cerretalto (who is also a contender) but I love the jockey change to Rosario, who is as good as any jockey at nursing a horse on the lead. Jewel Can Disco was 5 to 1 at this level just 17 days ago but opens at 10/1 here which makes no sense at all as he was gamely second by a head after setting fast fractions and as he's won at this 7 furlong trip before, the stretch out from 6 furlongs is no issue.

     

    Cerretalto is two for two since adding blinkers and comes off a career best effort with a 101 Equibase figure in February in statebred allowance company. He won that race off a two month rest and is coming back from a similar layoff and he could get a great trip behind Jewel Can Disco to win again.

     

    Salute With Honor won his 4 year old debut in February at Gulfstream then missed by a half-length at this level in Florida as well with a much improved 106 figure, the 2nd best last figure in the field. He's put in a nice work over the track and fits on all counts, his only knock that he opens at 3/1 so isn't nearly as good a win bet as the other two.

     

    Favorite Polar Jet (6/5 morning line) has finished 2nd in three straight, all at low odds, losing ground in the last 8th of a mile in the last two. He can win but I'd rather believe that when push comes to shove he is lacking the spirit to put his head down and will settle for 2nd once again and will play exactas that way. I will also use Emancipation and Professor Snape in the second slot.

     

    Bets: Jewel Can Disco to win at 3 to 1 or more. Make a win bet on Cerretalto as well, at 3 to 1 or more. Use a "Dutching" tool like the one at Amwager when betting more than one horse to win to help allocate your bets.

    Exactas: Jewel Can Disco, Cerretalto and Salute With Honor over Jewel Can Disco, Cerretalto, Salute With Honor, Emancipation, Professor Snape and Polar Jet.

    Doubles: Jewel Can Disco, Cerretalto and Salute With Honor in Race 8 with Undrafted, Conquest Panthera, Commend and Commute in Race 9.

    Elusive Quality Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont – Post Time 5:50 Eastern

    Undrafted is an exceptional turf sprinter who comes back from nearly six months off, which is not an issue as he won last year in April following a similar layoff. That win in 2017 earned a strong 112 Equibase Speed Figure which he bettered when last seen in November, winning a turf sprint with a 115 effort. Joel Rosario gets the call and rode Undrafted in that 2017 comeback win so he knows how to get the horse to relax and makes his patented late run from far back. Although no races at the seven furlong distance of the Elusive Quality Stakes appear in his recent history, Undrafted has won a mile on the grass in his career so there are no questions about being capable of the distance. Trainer Wesley Ward is having an exceptional 2018 to date, wining more than one-quarter of his 125 races so far. With a pattern of very consistent workouts coming into the race at the trainer's home base in Kentucky, including the last two on the grass, Undrafted looks ready to earn the ninth win of his career in this year's Elusive Quality Stakes. Conquest Panthera may come in under the radar of many bettors, making his second start of 2018 and with a non-threatening fifth place finish in his comeback effort last month. However, Conquest Panthera was asked to run a mile following nearly five months off and ran very well in spite of the layoff as he moved up from eighth in a field of nine to get within a length and one-half in the stretch before tiring. Not only should he be more physically fit in his second start off the layoff, but the cut back in distance should help sharpen up his closing kick. Last summer, Conquest Panthera won the Play the King Stakes at the distance of the Elusive Quality and he earned a career best 121 Figure when third in the Turf Sprint Championship Stakes last fall so his best effort is certainly good enough to win.

    Commend has finished first or second in seven of 14 career races. 13 of those have been on the turf including a runner-up effort when beaten a half-length in the Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint last summer. Freshened two months since a poor sixth place finish in the Colonel Power Stakes, Commend is reunited with Jose Ortiz, who rode him to victory last May on the Belmont turf course then two races later last summer at Saratoga. The 110 figure Commend earned in the Turf Sprint was a career best and as the horse put in a very solid workout less than two weeks ago that was the best of 37 on the day, we might expect a top effort in this race. Commute makes his second start following nine months off, having rallied from eighth to fourth in the Shakertown Stakes last month. Commend appears to run much better in his second start off a layoff, as evidenced by winning last May with a strong 108 figure on the all-weather surface at Woodbine before a 108 figure effort when coming up a nose short of victory in the Connaught Cup Stakes at the distance of the Elusive Quality. Additionally, Commute possesses a win at this seven furlong distance at Belmont, which came in the spring of 2016 so if he improves second off the layoff as he has done previously, Commute should be considered a contender to win the Elusive Quality as well.

    Win Bets: Bet Undrafted to win at 2 to 1 or more. Consider a second win bet on Commend (as he opens at 12/1) at 4 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta & Trifecta: Box Undrafted, Conquest Panthera, Commend and Commute.

     

    Powder Break Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream – Post Time 6:13 Eastern

    As her name suggests Glory to Kitten is a daughter of Kitten's Joy, bred by Ken & Sarah Ramsey. Claimed away from the Ramsey's out of her fourth career start in February, 2017, she finished in-the-money in five of six races, all on turf, including some tough allowance races in new York. Dropped in for a claiming price this January, trainer Jorge Abreu claimed her for $25K and immediately earned owner Michael Dubb the price back with a win in a $60K stakes race. She ran poorly in a grade 3 stakes after that but these are much easier and the jockey change to Jaramillo is telling. Now with a 5 for 6 record on the Gulfstream turf and in the hands of a very sharp former assistant to Chad Brown, Glory to Kitten should take some beating here with a nice pace to run at courtesy of Conquest Hardcandy, Madame Uno and the newly blinkered Sylphide.

    King's Ghost is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win. She moves to the Gargan barn and noting how Gargan's other runner, Inside Out, improved markedly when beaten a nose after moving to his care, she should run back to the form shown last fall when winning a very similar turf stakes over the course. The jockey change to Juarez certainly helps the chances of King's Ghost while the jockey change for her stablemate Inside Out to Reyes does not help that one's chances although we will use her in the 2nd spot on exacta tickets. We will also use Madame Uno and Island Reward in the second position.

    Win Bets: Bet Glory to Kitten to win at 2 to 1 or more, a KEY BET to be sure. Consider a win bet on King's Ghost (who opens at 8/1) at 3 to 1 or more for a smaller amount.

    Exacta: Glory to Kitten and King's Ghost over Glory to Kitten, King's Ghost, Inside Out, Madame Uno and Island Reward.

    Read more...
  • 20
    APR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, April 21

    Primonetta Stakes – Race 6 at Laurel - Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern

    The words "PACE DUEL" do not do justice to what is likely to occur in this six furlong sprint with at least THREE and as many as SEVEN horses having an "EARLY" running style. When the smoke clears the four left standing should be Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn, with a slight chance favorite Chalon can hold on for second or third as she is one of the speedballs.

    Anna's Bandit just won the statebred Conniver Stakes, at 7 furlongs over the track and the cut back is very good for her late kick at the distance of two of her previous five wins. Perez has been up for three wins in a row on the filly and her 12/1 starting odds are begging us to take advantage. Limited View opened up by many lengths through the first seven furlongs in a one turn mile last month, settling for 2nd of 8 at the end. Cutting back makes her a presser just like she was one before that last race when taking a nearly identical stakes to this one, except restricted to three year olds only, rallying under Prado (who rides here) from fifth to get up then flattered when the 3rd horse came back to win. Short Kakes won the Xtra Heat Stakes at Aqueduct three weeks ago from off the pace, her 3rd win in her last four starts, and is another who should really love the early pace scenario. Cairenn rallied from 6th of 9 to win by three lengths two back then won even more easily by five lengths 19 days ago and still have improving to do.

    Win Bets: At 3 to 1 or better I will bet BOTH Anna's Bandit and Limited View to win, adding place bets at 6 to 1 or more. I would consider win bets on Short Kakes and Cairenn at 4 to 1 or more but that appears unlikely to happen. For playing multiple win bets use a "Dutching" tool like the one at Amwager to allocate your betting dollars for the bet profit potential.

    Exacta: Box Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn.

    Trifecta: Box Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes, Cairenn and Chalon.

    Double: Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes, Cairenn and Chalon in Race 6 with Hallie Belle in Race 7.

    Double: Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn in Race 6 with Hawksmoor in Race 7.

    (There is no value in using the two favorites with each other: Chalon in Race 6 with Hawksmoor in Race 7.)

     

    Dahlia Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern

    Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor can win but only Hallie Belle is playable to win, and Hawksmoor may not even hit the board unless Leparoux can get her to relax as Tanya's Gem and I'm Betty G battle for the early lead. Hallie Belle is an exceptionally well bred filly owned by Godolphin who nearly won four in a row between last September and December, winning the Pago Hop Stakes to end the streak. She ran miserably in her 2018 debut at Fair Grounds but may have needed the race and with a very strong workout at Fair Hills on 4/14 I'm counting on that last race being an aberration and the filly rebounding to stakes winning form, opening at 15/1. Hawksmoor appears to hold a class edge dropping out of 3 straight grade 1 stakes in the summer and fall into this non-graded level and can win by repeating either of her runner-up efforts in her last two starts but she is nearly always in front from the start and unless Leparoux can wrangle her back early off the speed duel she could be a bit vulnerable late as she was in her last three races when leading with an 8th of a mile to go, settling for 2nd in the two most recent of those efforts.

    Win Bets: Hallie Belle to win at 3 to 1 or more, a true KEY LONGSHOT BET. Add a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Box Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor.

    Double: Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor in Race 7 with Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor in Race 8.

    Weber City Miss Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel – Post Time 4:40 Eastern

    Blue Union Rags went right through the first allowance condition last out on 3/3 following a strong maiden win, both routes over the track and both since Vargas took over riding. She's still improving, is in the top John Servis barn and can continue her winning ways to earn her first stakes win here in her current form and with a very mature off the pace running style. Layla Noor has only one knock compared to Blue Union Rags and that is she is coming back from nearly five months off whereas Blue Union Rags was last seen seven weeks ago. Layla Noor ran in a dirt route just twice before, winning powerfully at Laurel in November then finishing a decent third in the Demoiselle Stakes in December. Training well for Delacour, who has won with 4 of his last 8 starters coming back from 4 months or more in a dirt route, she is also reunited with Lynch, up for the win but not the defeat, and if she is ready to run as she did last fall at Laurel, she has every right to win.

    Bets: Blue Union Rags to win at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more. Also bet Layla Noor if she goes to post at 3 to 1 or higher.

    Exactas: Box Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor.

    Doubles: Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor in Race 8 with Murad Khan, Ring Weekend, Celebration and Doctor Mounty in Race 9.

    Henry S. Clark Stakes – Race 9 at Laurel – Post Time 5:10 Eastern

    Murad Khan can post the upset although this is a fairly deep field. He opens at 10/1, gets the rail and makes his 3rd start in the U.S. and 3rd off a layoff, so the cycle suggests improvement. He posted the 22 to 1 upset in a tough 2nd level allowance field at Gulfstream Park last month and in Europe won at this mile turf trip three times so now that he's back in winning form he has every right to come right back with another victory. Celebration makes his U.S. debut today, last seen in October in Ireland winning at 7 furlongs on grass in a field of 13. He's never raced a mile but is training forwardly for a very good, underrated trainer in Abbott, and with Leparoux signed on if he's anywhere near his 12/1 odds at post time you can be sure I will be betting him, perhaps heavily. Doctor Mounty is another who opens at double digit odds which make him very playable. He fell on the turn in the Tampa Bay Stakes in February so that race can be ignored but before that he won a classified allowance race with a strong effort. Considering he's trained by Shug McGaughey and Boyce rode him to two of his last three wins, one at Laurel in a race scheduled for turf but moved to the main track, we don’t want to be kicking ourselves after the race for not wagering at least a few bucks on this horse with a decent 5 for 15 career record. Ring Weekend rounds out a quartet of contenders but opens at the lowest odds by far of the group, 7 to 2. He's earned over $1.5 million and has won multiple graded stakes but he is 7 now and although the last time he didn't run in a graded stakes he won prior to that he lost two non-graded stakes attempts with no excuse. He was very wide from a poor 11 post last out so will get a better trip today and could return to top form.

    Win Bets: Any of the three win contenders who might go to post at high odds – Murad Khan, Celebration and Doctor Mounty, at 4 to 1 or more, adding place bets at 8 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Box Murad Khan, Celebration, Doctor Mounty and Ring Weekend.

     

    Doubles: Murad Khan, Celebration, Doctor Mounty and in Race 9 with ALL 11 horses in Race 10.

    Doubles: Ring Weekend in Race 9 with American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code in race 10.

     

    Federico Tesio Stakes – Race 10 at Laurel – Post Time 5:40 Eastern

    American Lincoln decimated a field, albeit only of five horses, but 18 lengths last month at Aqueduct, at this nine furlong trip. That was his 2nd start as a 3 year old and a huge improvement off his previous when 3rd behind Holland Park. Shipping down from New York for Linda Rice, American Lincoln brings Junior Alvarado to ride, up for the win and giving up a whole day of races at Aqueduct. The colt by Street Sense out of a Smart Strike mare is bred to be a good one and any improvement off that last race can get him the win and add to Rice's very high 33% win rate with starters back-to-back in the past year. Holland Park has been off since his sharp win in February before being flattered nicely by American Lincoln. He is bred to be ANY KIND by Tapit out of champion Round Pond, who has already produced a multiple stakes winner in Long River. With an exceptional 2nd best of 75 half-mile drill before leaving McLaughlin's base at Belmont and with local jockey Vargas aboard, Holland Park has every right to improve as markedly today off his last race as American Lincoln did off that same race. Split Verdict improved nicely 2nd time out last month to win at a mile around one turn at Aqueduct and is another shipper, this from the fine Violette barn and bringing New York rider Carmouche along. The colt showed good tactical speed in that win and could be close to the likely hot pace set by possible dueling leaders Not Fake News and Navy Commander so could make the lead in the stretch before the closers get into high gear and he could hang on from there. V.I.P Code is the local runner I'll consider a contender, having just won the Private Terms Stakes, only the 2nd two-turn try of his career and first of the year. The 101 Equibase figure is the BEST last race figure in the field and as Quinones rides back we must respect the colt's chances to run two "A" races in a row.

    Morning line favorite Still Having Fun finished 4th at 3 to 5 with an excuse in the Private Terms so can be used on exacta tickets as he can rebound but he's no standout. Noble Commander tries two turns for the first time but is undefeated in two starts. Diamond King lost the jockey the only previous time he tried two turns but he's won 3 of the other four races in his career. Takedown rallied from far back to win an allowance race over the track and has a shot to get a piece.

    Win Bets: Bet American Lincoln and Holland Park at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher. Consider a win bet on Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code at 4 to 1 or more.

    Exacta: American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code over American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict, V.I.P. Code, Still Having Fun, Noble Commander, Diamond King and Takedown.

    For a smaller amount, play the reverse of the exacta above as well.

    Read more...
  • 13
    APR

    Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 14

    Bridgetown Stakes – Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 5:17 PM Eastern

    Nootka Sound ships in from Kentucky for Wesley Ward and as most people know Ward is one of the sharpest turf trainers in North America if not the world, having shipped some of his runners from the U.S. across the pond to win prestigious stakes. Nootka Sound did ship to England last spring for the Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and although highly regarded in a field of 22, sent off at 9 to 2, she finished 17th. Honestly, the absence of Lasix which she used for her 5 length win two months earlier in her career debut may have been a factor, or just shipping to Europe, but in any event when brought back in January at Gulfstream Park in a 7 1/2 furlong turf race (and with Lasix) she again ran a huge race to win in a field of 8, then was flattered when the third horse won and the runner-up finished 2nd in her subsequent start. Ward has no problem racing a filly against males, particularly on turf where finesse matters more than size, and with two exceptional recent workouts since leaving Ward's home base in Kentucky and with veteran Pino in the saddle, the filly who can win on the lead or from off the pace may take some beating here, with coming from off-the-pace the better way to win this from her outside post with three or four others bound to want the lead from the start and possibly at any cost.

    Ambassador Jim has never been worse than 3rd in four races including a win when last seen in October and returning more mature as a three year old adds Lasix for the first time. With Rosario out of town, Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call for excellent trainer Clement and the colt's 90 Equibase figure when last seen in the fall matches up perfectly with the 90 best figure Nootka Sound has earned so these two have just about the same chance to win in my opinion.

    Barbarossa is the third horse that is not a need-the-lead type, having rallied from 5th to miss by a neck at the same 7 1/2 furlong trip Nootka Sound ran so well at in her last start. Before that, Barbarossa won by eight at 7 furlongs on turf and after that he finished 3rd in a 75K stakes race at 5 furlongs. This six furlong trip should suit him nicely and so he rounds out the trio we can wager on to win and/or in exactas for a profit.

    Win Bets: Nootka Sound and Ambassador Jim to win at 2 to 1 or more. Depending on their odds near post time use a "Dutching" tool like the free one at Amwager to help allocate your wagering dollars for the best profit.

    Exacta: Box Nootka Sound, Ambassador Jim and Barbarossa.

     

    Stonestreet Lexington Stakes – Race 9 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:34 PM Eastern

    In addition to the condition of the track being a factor, with rain predicted, there's likely to be very hot early pace as Battle At Sea, Telekinesis, Seven Trumpets, Magicalmeister and the newly blinkered Gracida may all want the lead from the start and if not the ones that don't get the lead will press the pace and are likely to force fast early fractions.

    My Boy Jack is likely to get the sloppy or muddy track of his dreams in the Lexington Stakes as rain is predicted and considering how easily he prevailed (by four and one-half lengths) in the Southwest Stakes in February in the mud he should run as well. He earned a 106 Equibase figure in that win then followed it up with a 105 figure when beaten just under a length in the Louisiana Derby after making a visually impressive rally EIGHT paths wide on the turn while going from 10th to second before losing some of his steam and that same late kick timed better in this race which ends at the first finish line gets him the win.

    Zanesville may be worth considering for many reasons, not the least of which is he opens at 20/1. His only previous try on a sloppy track came last December and he really showed a liking for the surface with a strong win. He returned to win an allowance race in February and last month in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Zanesville was flying late, ending up fourth and beaten just two lengths at the end with a career best 105 figure on par with My Boy Jack.

    Pony Up finished fast from ninth to end up second in the Jeff Ruby, his best race to date with a 108 figure. John Velazquez gets on for the Pletcher barn which is dominating many of the Derby prep races and the colt has many dirt route stakes winners he calls siblings on the dam's side of his pedigree so could certainly be a factor.

    Although I don't think they can win, both Honor Up and Greyvitos both could be a factor and should be considered for second and third positions on exacta and trifecta tickets.

    Win Bets: My Boy Jack at 2 to 1 or more.

    Also definitely consider a win bet on Zanesville at 7 to 2 or more and a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher, as well as a win bet on Pony Up at 7 to 2 or higher.

    Exactas: My Boy Jack, Zanesville and Pony Up over My Boy Jack, Zanesville, Pony Up, Honor Up and Greyvitos.

    Trifecta: My Boy Jack over Zanesville, Pony Up, Honor Up and Greyvitos over ALL.

    Thors Echo Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6 pm Eastern, 3 PM Pacific

    Make It a Triple opens at 15/1 and is the perfect horse to either post the upset or to split the two logical favorites, Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday. Make It a Triple was a claimer for his entire career until trainer Craigmyle claimed him for 16K in December out of a strong three length wining effort at this basic six furlong trip on dirt. Trying turf for the first time off the claim, and moving up significantly to allowance company, but against California breds only, Make It a Triple finished third, beaten only a length for the win. Improving once more next time out when moved back to six furlongs on dirt on March 17, the horse ran the best race of his career with a 110 figure. Putting that effort in perspective, when Tough Sunday won the similar Sensational Star Stakes one week earlier, he earned a 111 figure and when Edwards Going Left won the similar California Cup Sprint in January, he earned a 113 figure so it is very likely Make It a Triple fits here although his starting odds are 6 to 10 times those of the other two contenders.

    Bets: Make It a Triple to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Box Make It a Triple and Edwards Going Left. Box Make It a Triple and Tough Sunday.

    Trifecta: Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Make It a Triple over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday.

    Also Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Make It a Triple.

    Also Make It a Triple over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday.

    Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes – Race 10 at Keeneland – Post Time 6:12 Eastern

    In an incredibly deep edition of this grade 1 stakes on turf for fillies and mares, likely to be run on a turf course other than firm, Cambodia gets slight preference here as a mare that really likes to win, with a 6 for 12 career mark on the grass including back-to-back grade 2 stakes wins last summer. Following that she wasn't disgraced a bit when 3rd of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf then a fourth of 11 finish in the grade 1 Matriarch Stakes before taking the four and one-half months off she comes back from today. From her rail draw Leparoux will use her tactical speed to be anywhere from 3rd to 6th in his 12 horse field in the early stages and from there it's just a matter of showing the kind of kick she showed starting with a win in the Gallorette Stakes on Preakness Day last year to get the job done here.

    Off Limits also put together three straight stakes wins last summer and fall, culminating with a huge effort to win the Grade 1 Matriarch in November. She wasn't 100% tight when returning last month in the Hillsborough Stakes, rallying from 9th of 10 early to be beaten a length and one-half at the end, but in her 2nd start back and with Rosario aboard today as he was for those three straight wins last season, Off Limits is another expected to be rolling in the lane to be in the picture at the end.

    Dona Bruja was a multiple group stakes winner in her native Argentina and won in her U.S. debut last June in the Grade 3 Mint Julep Handicap before two more excellent efforts for a win and a half-length defeat, the latter coming in the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes. Not disgraced when 4th in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II here at Keeneland last fall, she was given four months off and came back with a roar when wiring the field in February to win the Endeavour Stakes under Jose Ortiz, who was riding her for the 1st time. Now having won off the pace and on the lead and with Ortiz riding back, Dona Bruja rounds out a trio that in my opinion has a slight edge on the rest here any of which can finish 2nd or 3rd.

    Win Bets: Any of the three win contenders – Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja, can be bet to win at 5 to 2 or more, with slight preference in that order.

    Trifecta: Instead of an exacta, I think a pair of trifectas are in order because I think at least two of the above mares will finish 1st and 2nd or 1st and 3rd.

    Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over ALL.

    Then also Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over ALL over Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja.

    Read more...