Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 13th, 2022

Trillium Stakes – Race 7 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:20 PM Eastern

Last week the first race on the blog resulted in a 23/1 winner and a $289 exacta (for $2) and it just so happens we might have a similar outcome here because the top contenders are Hazelbrook and Kate’s Kingdom, opening at 15/1 and 12/1, respectively. The favorite is Lady Speightspeare, who enters the race off a win in the higher level Grade 2 Nassau Stakes, BUT that was on turf and she’s only run once on the main track at Woodbine in 10 races, that effort coming nine months ago and around one turn. Currently, Lady Speightspeare has a running style that demands she be first or second early, so with the nine post and with Dreaming of Drew and Lovely Ride also both wanting the lead from the start, she’s going to need a lot of luck to get close to the front while not going wide and not expending too much energy in the first part of the race.

Hazelbrook just posted the 26 to 1 upset in the Grade 3 Hendrie Stakes last month, a sprint but on the main track. She’s run six times, winning four including that stakes and she’s bred to handle two turns just fine on both sides of her pedigree. She’s on a pattern of sprint-route-route I like and she is mature and able to be positioned wherever jockey Hoyte likes, then rally strongly as she has done in her last two starts. Having earned a 92 Equibase figure in June after nine months off then 97, Hazelbrook appears very capable of taking another step forward and posting the upset here.

Kate’s Kingdom is also a last out stakes winner, having captured the Powder Break Stakes in Florida over the same Tapeta surface she’s running over at Woodbine, and around two turns. The 98 figure was solid and as good as the 97 figure Dreaming of Drew earned winning the Belle Mahone Stakes at this distance over the track in June, but that one opens at 4 to 1 while Kate’s Kingdom opens at 12/1 and that makes no sense whatsoever.

Handicapper Picks

Bets:

Win bets:  Absolutely make win bets on both Hazelbrook and on Kate’s Kingdom at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

When betting on two (or more) horses to win, particularly at high odds, we should “DUTCH” the bet, which means to prorate our total wagers among the two horses based on the odds. Amwager.com has a free and easy to use Dutching Tool available where you can set the amount you want to bet, or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you. This is just one of many tools, and perks, available to the bettor at Amwager.com 

With such high odds on two win contenders, the exotic bets below are strictly optional:

Exactas: Box Hazelbrook, Kate’s Kingdom and Lady Speightspeare

Trifectas: ($0.20 minimum so well worth the risk): Hazelbrook and Kate’s Kingdom over ALL over Hazelbrook and Kate’s Kingdom (in conjunction with the exacta we win if the top two contenders finish 1st & 2nd or 1st & 3rd

Doubles:

Race 7: Hazelbrook, Kate’s Kingdom

Race 8: ALL

Race 7: ALL

Race 8: Secret Reserve, Candy Overload, Mason’s Gamble

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Bold Venture Stakes – Race 8 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:54 PM Eastern

Just as in the Trillium, we have some exciting price opportunities in this race, in this case three horses – Candy Overload, Secret Reserve and Mason’s Gamble.

The starting favorites here are Tap It To Win (3/1) and Souper Stonehenge (4/1), and both are vulnerable. Tap It To Win has two second place finishes and a seventh place finish in three races this year and he has NEVER run this distance at Woodbine. Souper Stonehenge has finished third and sixth in his two races this year, with NO excuse in either and there’s no reason to suspect he can run a winning race here.

On the other hand, Mason’s Gamble, Candy Overload and Secret Reserve finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the Ontario Jockey Club Stakes at six furlongs over the track on June 19, with Candy Overload flattering the other two by winning strongly on July 22. That win, at seven furlongs, earned a 107 figure which is FASTER than ANY of the other horses in this race have run this year. He was second in three straight before that including two at this distance, and gets a nice pace to close into as long as Last American Exit and Clayton both go for the lead from the start as it appears they will. Secret Reserve was making his second start off the layoff in the Ontario Jockey Club with the same 102 figure the winner earned and he could easily improve to the same level based on how well Candy Overload ran out of that race. He also has won the seven furlong Elgin Stakes on the main track last summer and the Lake Superior Stakes at seven furlongs on turf last October so he fits on EVERY level and has put in two big workouts (best of 76 and second best of 40) since raced which SCREAM he’s in top form. Mason’s Gamble is ALSO making his third start off a long layoff and has won at seven furlongs at Woodbine, TWICE, so has every right to run as well or better and he could be the one making the first move into the tiring pacesetters based on how he relaxed off the pace last out before getting up to win.

For our exacta ticket we can use two other horses as the three contenders should go to post at high odds. The other two are Tap It to Win and Helium, the former second in two straight before a poor seventh place finish last out and the latter having finished second in all three starts this year.

Handicapper Picks

ALL three horses – Candy Overload, Secret Reserve and Mason’s Gamble­, should be considered for win bets at 4 to1 or more.

Absolutely use a Dutching tool in this situation where profit could be huge.  

Exactas: Candy Overload, Secret Reserve and Mason’s Gamble over Candy Overload, Secret Reserve , Mason’s Gamble, Tap It to Win and Helium.

Also, the opposite, which is Candy Overload, Secret Reserve , Mason’s Gamble, Tap It to Win and Helium over Candy Overload, Secret Reserve and Mason’s Gamble.

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Yellow Ribbon Handicap – Race 6 at Del Mar – Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern

Avenue de France posted the 6 to 1 upset in the opening week Osunitas Stakes at a mile on grass in a field of 11 and should run even better in her second start at the meeting. Hernandez is crushing the jockey colony so far at the meet and rode the mare for the first time, to perfection, finding a spot to run in the stretch when she finished with a flourish from sixth to win going away. The 103 Equibase figure is strong and likely to be improved upon.

Flippant is the only other win contender, having won the Indiana General Assembly Distaff last month, also with a flourish as she closed from fifth to win going away in the stretch. She was making her second start off a seven month layoff and is on the improve so should run as well or better.

The favorite is Going Global at 6 to 5, who finished a well-beaten third at 4 to 5 when last seen in the Gamely Stakes after winning the Royal Heroine Stakes in April off a four month layoff. She can win but doesn’t have to as her 103 best figures from winning the Goldikova and San Clemente last year aren’t better than the 103 figure Avenue de France earned last month nor the 106 figure Flippant earned winning the stakes last month.

Handicapper Picks

Win Bet: Avenue de France and Flippant at 2 to 1 or more.

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Ellis Starr

Ellis is a well respected handicapper and contributor of AmWager. He has been a public handicapper for more than twenty years, educating racing fans of all skill levels with detailed commentary few other handicappers provide.

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