Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 30th, 2023
Suwanee River Stakes – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:32 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Accomplished Girl, Sister Lou Ann, Fast as Flight
Fast as Flight appears to have just been in as a prep for this race last time out on 12/3 on the all-weather course, where she finished fourth of eight. That’s because she had been off for five months prior to that and there were likely no other opportunities for a horse like her, a previous stakes winner on turf. She got a lot out of that effort and should run back to her win in a similar stakes just before that in July with Saez aboard, who did not ride last time out but who gets back and has only ridden her twice – to the win and to a neck defeat prior to that. That win on July 2 earned a 107 Equibase Speed Figure which is the BEST by any horse in the field on turf this year.
Accomplished Girl also earned a 107 figure, when last seen on 9/18 winning the tougher Grade 2 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes. That was a sprint on the all-weather but she finished second on turf prior to that and won on the grass here at Gulfstream in March. I’m not concerned about the layoff since that last race three months ago since she put in a very strong five furlong workout coming into the race, and there’s little concern about her handling two turns on turf for the first time given her pedigree. The only real concern I have is whether she will run in this race as she’s also entered to run on 12/31.
Sister Lou Ann has a one for six record this year, BUT that one win, in the $400K One Dreamer Stakes on turf at Kentucky Downs in September, was a huge effort she could repeat here. She took lasix off for that race as she does here and Jose Ortiz rode her as today. She finished second in the same prep on all-weather that Fast as Flight was fourth in and she also won a stakes as a three year old in 2022 over the course at the distance so we can expect a big effort to add to her record of finishing in the exacta in more than 50% of her 13 races to date.
Handicapper Picks
Win: First, Fast as Flight should be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1 or higher. Then we should also consider win bets on Accomplished Girl and Sister Lou Ann at odds of 4 to 1 or more,
When considering win bets on more than one horse, an advantage lies in using a “Dutching” tool. There’s a free “Dutching” tool at Amwager, which allows us to set the total amount we want to bet, then prorates our wagers for the best mathematical edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, available for racing fans at Amwager.
Exactas:
Box Fast as Flight, Accomplished Girl, Sister Lou Ann
Box Fast as Flight, Accomplished Girl
Box Fast as Flight, Sister Lou Ann
Trifectas:
Fast as Flight over ALL over Accomplished Girl, Sister Lou Ann
(The trifecta above, when played in combination with the exactas above, covers Fast as Flight winning and then either Accomplished Girl or Sister Lou Ann finishing second OR third).
Doubles:
Race 8: Fast as Flight, Accomplished Girl, Sister Lou Ann
Race 9: Saratoga Flash, Conglomerate, Beuys, Skyro
Pick 3:
Race 8: Fast as Flight, Accomplished Girl, Sister Lou Ann
Race 9: Saratoga Flash, Conglomerate, Beuys, Skyro
Race 10: O’ Connor, Miles D, Steal Sunshine
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Handicap – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park -Post Time 4:02 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Saratoga Flash, Conglomerate, Beuys, Skyro
Conglomerate loves the all-weather surface, at both Gulfstream and at Woodbine, evidenced by a record of 8-5-3 in 18 races, with a subset at Gulfstream of 3-3-1 in seven races. He just won a Grade 3 stakes at Woodbine and this non-graded race is a slight drop in class, and he won at a mile and one-sixteenth one before last in October so this mile and one-sixteenth trip hit him between the eyes. He’s earned back-to-back 107 Equibase Speed Figures, just slightly better than the 105 figure Skyro earned winning a race identical to this one four weeks ago, and he is ready to add to his very consistent record today.
Skyro finished second in an identical race in January took nine months off, ran poorly on dirt and on turf, BUT woke up big time back on the all-weather with a win four weeks ago. He has never been worse than second on the surface and Joe Bravo, who rode him for the first time in victory earlier this month, rides back, so we can expect another “A” effort.
Saratoga Flash won one year and one week ago off a two and one-half month layoff and returns off a three month layoff in this race. He was last seen winning a half-million dollar handicap at a mile on turf and he won his only start on the all-weather previously, here at Gulfstream in February. He’s only run one bad race all year and that came in a very tough field at Saratoga so he must be strongly considered for all wagers we make involving this race.
Beuys is an interesting horse who will get some play because not only has he finished first or second in four of five races this year, he was privately purchased by Three Diamonds Farm sometime after his most recent start on October 6, and sent to Mike Maker, who does very well with new acquisitions like this one. He is trying all-weather for the first time but as he has a very solid 3-3-1 record in nine career starts on turf the transition should not be an issue. World class jockey Oisin Murphy is making a winter home in Florida and gets the call and as he’s ridden on all kinds of surfaces around the world there are no concerns.
Handicapper Picks
Win: First, consider Conglomerate for a win bet at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. Then we can and should also consider a win bet on two of the other three at the highest odds, at 3 to 1 or more – Skyro, Saratoga Flash, Beuys.
This is another race where the free (and easy to use) Dutching Tool at Amwager should come in very handy when making win bets on more than one horse.
Exactas:
Conglomerate over Saratoga Flash, Beuys, Skyro
Saratoga Flash, Beuys, Skyro over Conglomerate
Box Conglomerate, Saratoga Flash, Beuys, Skyro
Trifecta:
Box Conglomerate, Saratoga Flash, Beuys, Skyro
Doubles:
Race 9: Saratoga Flash, Conglomerate, Beuys, Skyro
Race 10: O’ Connor, Miles D, Steal Sunshine
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Harlan’s Holiday Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:34 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: O’Connor, Miles D, Steal Sunshine
O’Connor will likely go favored because his most recent effort, on October 28, resulted in a win in the higher level Grade 2 Fayette Stakes. He’s now run in seven straight graded stakes, which gives him a class edge over most of the rest, but on the other hand his only win in graded stakes came in that last race. He did, however, run his second best race of the year in April under identical conditions in the Ghostzapper Stakes here at Gulfstream, beaten just a half-length for the win. The Fayette win earned him a 104 Equibase Speed Figure and the Ghostzapper effort earned a 102 figure and those efforts are representative of what he’s capable of here and are good enough to win. However, he’s not a standout and there are two other horses particularly which have about the same probability to win and offer much better returns.
Steal Sunshine is one of those, with four of his five career wins (in 16 dirt races) coming at Gulfstream. He won a stakes at seven furlongs here as a three year old in 2022 then won the two-turn Ellis Park Derby that summer. Those were his second and third wins in a row after returning from poorer form, and considering he had lost eight in a row before winning when last seen, he could easily hold his form and win his second in a row. Lopez gets on and is winning 25% of his races at the meeting, and trainer Dibona is very skilled at keeping horses in form, evidenced by a strong 18 for 54 record (33%) of back-to-back wins the previous two years.
Miles D was in the hands of Chad Brown before his most recent race on November 3, a strong runner-up effort in a very similar $100 stakes race in Louisiana. He won the Discovery Stakes in the fall of 2021 and was third in the 2021 Travers behind Essential Quality so there are really no knocks on his class or form. He’s coming in under the radar based on not having won in over two years but he has finished second or third in four of five since then and the 111 last race Equibase Figure from the Delta Mile Stakes last month is the BEST in the field, which means Miles D has a big shot to outrun his double digit starting odds.
Handicapper Picks
Win: First, O’Connor should be considered for a win bet at 5 to 2 or higher. Then we absolutely should also consider win bets on Steal Sunshine and Miles D at odds of 4 to 1 or more, I would not hesitate to bet both of the latter two to win and then use the exacta and trifecta plays below to make a profit if O’Connor wins.
This is yet another race where the free (and easy to use) Dutching Tool at Amwager should come in very handy.
Exactas:
Box O’ Connor, Steal Sunshine
Box O’ Connor, Miles D
Box O’Connor, Steal Sunshine, Miles D
Trifectas:
O’Connor over ALL over Steal Sunshine, Miles D
(The trifecta above, when played in combination with the exactas above, covers O’Connor winning and then either Steal Sunshine or Miles D finishing second OR third).
