Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 15th, 2023
Prince George’s County Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel – Post Time 3:31 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Royal Patronage is a contender but NOT the horse to beat. He opens at 5 to 2 on the drop from the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes last month when fifth with no excuse at 2 to 1 and won an allowance race prior to that. On the other hand he’s one for five since importing to the U.S. and although a repeat of the 4/20 allowance race win would give him a short here he’s no standout. Similarly, Pao Alto is winless in five races since importing to the U.S. last September and really hasn’t threatened to win except perhaps in his U.S. debut in the Baltimore Washington Turf Cup on 9/10/22 when he rallied from fourth to lead in the stretch before settling for second.
The KEY to profit here is Camp Hope, opening at 6 to 1 as he too drops out of graded stakes after a fifth place finish in the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes on 7/1, a higher level race than the G3 stakes the aforementioned two come out of. Camp Hope won before that on June 1, rallying from seventh of 10 to win a classified allowance race at the stakes level at Churchill Downs with a 116 Equibase Speed Figure every bit as good as the 115 Royal Patronage earned winning on 4/20 and the 112 career-best figure Pao Alto earned in his U.S. debut last summer.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Camp Hope at 3 to 1 or more
Exactas: Box Camp Hope and Royal Patronage, Box Camp Hope and Pao Alto
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Blue Sparkler Stakes – Race 9 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:36 PM Eastern
Analysis and Contenders:
This is a fairly deep and well-matched field of three year old fillies with no likely heavy favorite. Beauty of the Sea opens at 5 to 1 and is the one to beat in my opinion as she goes for her third win in a row, with a win on turf one before last and a very sharp win on all-weather last time out versus older fillies and mares. She continues to improve and has a big kick evidenced by her last race when moving from fourth to first in a sixteenth of a mile before drawing off with a 90 figure which is the second best in the field behind Love Appeals (95), with that one possibly disadvantaged by the rail and also cross-entered in a race at Saratoga.
My Sweet Affair ships in from Saratoga for Weaver where she trained spectacularly well on 7/7 on the grass, her half-mile drill the best of 71 on the day. She finished second in the similar Stormy Blues Stakes on 6/18 when last seen, when Bosserati led from start to finish, an unlikely scenario today because Talk to the Judge, Lady Irvine and Caroline Krystyna ALL have the same need-the-lead style. With only slight improvement needed off her last race 84 figure effort, My Sweet Affair must be respected as a contender.
Plentitude is trained by Clement the same as Love Appeals but gets a much better cozy outside draw to avoid trouble. She won her debut in April (on dirt) when battling head and head for the entire race before drawing off then she showed a lot of maturity when relaxing in fourth for the first half-mile on the grass at Belmont before making a quick four wide move to lead and hang on. She’s making her third start and is on a pattern for more improvement so rounds out the main contenders.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Beauty of the Sea to win at 2 to 1 or more.
My Sweet Affair and Plentitude can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more.
As we may be considering win bets on more than one horse, and with the possibility of an odds disparity between the horses we wish to bet to win, this is a great race to take advantage of the mathematical edge provided by a “Dutching” tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Exactas: Beauty of the Sea over Love Appeals, My Sweet Affair, Plentitude
Box Beauty of the Sea, Love Appeals; Box Beauty of the Sea, My Sweet Affair; Box Beauty of the Sea, Plentitude
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Sanford Stakes – Race 10 at Saratoga – Post Time 6:19 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Gold Sweep opens as the prohibitive three to five favorite and may not be the stone cold lock those odds make him appear to be. Having a prohibitive favorite like that means other horses, which might normally be lower odds (say 4 to 1 or less) will offer value as win bets, and that’s what we should be concentrating on.
Although Gold Sweep has a stakes win under his belt I am going to start instead with Triple Trea as the top contender in this year’s Sanford Stakes. A Kentucky bred son of Bolt d’ Oro, Triple Trea won his only start on the all-weather track at Woodbine but I think he has what it takes to run good enough to win on the conventional dirt surface at Saratoga. That win on June 4 was impressive on two counts. First, Triple Trea ran in his debut as if he had run before, showing a lot of ability to relax and respond to his jockey by sitting in sixth of eight early then rolling by the field late after going five paths wide on the far turn. The effort earned a pretty decent 80 Equibase Speed Figure, which can be improved upon off the experience of a race. The second reason that June 4 race was indicative of a competitive effort in the Sanford is it has already turned out to be a productive “Key” race by virtue of the fact both the runner-up and fifth place finishers came back to win their next starts, and the third finisher finished second in his next outing. Getting top jockey Luis Saez, and with a number of horses in this race likely to want the lead from the start, perhaps running too fast early to have the staying power late to hold off a closer, I think Triple Trea can pass the tiring pacesetters late to win.
Gold Sweep lost in his May debut by a neck and showed enough ability that trainer Steve Asmussen entered him in the Tremont Stakes for his second career start on June 11. Gold Sweep did not disappoint in the Tremont as he rallied three paths wide on the turn before drawing off by nine lengths in handy fashion. His sire, Speightstown, is known for producing two year old stakes winners, such as Andiamo a Firenze, who was third in the 2022 Sanford and who won the Funny Cide Stakes later in the season at Saratoga. Demonstrating how two year olds can improve from one start to the next, Gold Sweep went from an 88 figure in his debut to a 94 figure in the Tremont and an even better effort could be forthcoming in this situation.
Ramming Speed may come in under the radar for most bettors because he’s been running at Presque Isle Downs and on an all-weather surface but based on his most recent race just 12 days ago he has the potential to post the slight upset. In his debut on June 14, Ramming Speed rallied four paths wide for second then just 19 days later he improved markedly to win by four lengths. In that race Ramming Speed showed good maturity because after breaking sharply jockey Gaddiel Martinez allowed the horse to drop back to third and relax, before going around horses on the turn to draw off to an easy win. The 65 figure was much lower than most of the rest of the Sanford field earned recently, but the effort was impressive. Furthermore, the turnaround in racing just 12 days after his most recent race seems not to be a problem as his win on July 3 came just 19 days after his debut.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Triple Trea at 3 to 1 or more AND Ramming Speed at odds of 6 to 1 or more.
This is also a race in which a dutching tool like the one at Amwager which is free and easy to use, to allocate our wagers based on the odds of the horses we are betting to win, will prove to be a big advantage.
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Century Mile Handicap – Race 6 at Century Mile – Post Time 8:15 PM Eastern
Glava is impossible to ignore opening at 12 to 1 as a horse with a record of 5 for 15 over the track and who is stretching out of a seven furlong sprint in which he battled head and head for the first six furlong before tiring. There’s NO speed in side of him for three or four stalls in the gate and so jockey Nelson can easily get him to the front, or just off the pace as the horse is not a need-the-lead types having earned his last two-turn win from third in the early stages. The last time Glava stretched out from a sprint to a route he won, last July, and he’s making only his fourth start after being off for seven months. Trainer Gonzalo is a high percentage trainer and jockey Nelson is the top jockey on the circuit in routes, having won better than 33% of his races in the past year (23 for 66).
At Attention has won six of his last eight and was second in the other two so his starting odds of 6 to 1 are impossible to ignore. If not first he should be second as he’s been first or second in 15 of 27 dirt races in his career, and he just won at Hastings last month following eight months off so he’s got room to improve, not to mention he won the 2022 Century Mile Handicap under Reyes, who rides today.
Most of the others in this race have some chance but with these two opening at such nice odds we can just bet one or both to win for a sweet profit.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Glava and At Attention at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
