Jim Dandy Stakes – Race 9 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:39 PM Eastern
Masqueparade, Essential Quality and Weyburn are the contenders to win.
Given Essential Quality opens as the 1 to 2 favorite, I have to start with Masqueparade, who opens at 4/1, as the horse to bet in this race in which the favorite no matter how tough, is NOT unbeatable. Masqueparade is a late bloomer who is a perfect two-for-two at nine furlongs, starting with an 11 length romp in May then a strong win in the Ohio Derby. The 108 and 105 Equibase figures tell me he can run just as well as Essential Quality, who has earned three straight 109 figures so isn’t really improving (nor is he declining). Masqueparade put in a very strong four furlong workout last week in preparation for the race, here at Saratoga and Mena, who was aboard for his last two wins, is riding back. He’s got a strong tactical speed style and in this race where it appears Keepmeinmind and Risk Taking will drop back, Masqueparade only needs to get past Dr Jack to lead from the start. However, if Weyburn, Dr Jack or even Essential Quality wants the early lead, Masqueparade can sit off the pace as he did in both previous nine furlong races and there’s no question in my mind he has the toughness to win.
Essential Quality needs no talking up. He won the Blue Grass Stakes at this trip, didn’t run as well as expected in the Derby then won the Belmont where his breeding certainly showed up. He also has tactical speed and can win, perhaps should win, but then again he’s no lock AND his odds make it so we should really hope Masqueparade or Weyburn gets the victory.
Weyburn ran the best race of his career last month in the Pegasus when coming up a neck short of Mandaloun and two and one-half lengths clear of the next horse (Dr Jack). Like, Masqueparade, Weyburn put in a strong workout at Saratoga for this race (59.4 for five furlongs and the best of 30 workouts at the distance on the day) and is bred to handle this trip just fine and make up for his poor fourth in the Wood Memorial at the distance in April. Irad Ortiz, Jr. replaces Davis and that may be worth more than the neck the colt was beaten last month.
Win bets: Masqueparade to win at 2 to 1
For a smaller amount, Weyburn to win at 3 to 1.
Considering Masqueparade opens at 4 to 1 and Weyburn at 6 to 1 we may get odds good enough to bet both and in that case, we should use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating our wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets us set the amount you want to bet or the amount we want to win, then based on the odds our bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Box Masqueparade and Essential Quality (the main exacta bet)
For smaller amounts Box Masqueparade and Weyburn, then also box Masqueparade and Dr Jack as well as Weyburn and Essential Quality
Race 9: Masqueparade
Race 10: Cross Border, Channel Maker, Moon Over Miami
Race 9: Masqueparade, Weyburn, Essential Quality, Dr Jack
Race 10: Cross Border, Moon Over Miami