Orchid Stakes – Race 13 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:55 PM Eastern
Morning Molly has been first or second in ALL SEVEN races since her debut in January, 2019, the first of the seven coming after she took nine months off following that debut. Moving into stakes company in January, she won the Jersey Lilly Stakes in Texas then led late before being out-finished by the more seasoned Michelin in the Grade 2 Hillsborough Stakes. Dropping to this grade 3 level and getting Jose Ortiz to ride, this gal bred to run all day should appreciate the added distance and could easily add to her resume as well as make us a nice profit because in spite of being in the thick of the action on the wire in her last seven races she opens at 8 to 1.
Sorrel is an Irish bred filly making her U.S. debut for the top Clement barn and she could be something special in these long races for fillies and mares on the turf. She won three in a row in England last summer and fall, at distances ranging from a mile and one-half to a mile and five-eighths, so this 11 furlong trip is no concern, nor is the layoff at this marathon trip, particularly for Clement and with her excellent series of five furlong drills over the past two months.
Enjoyitwhilewecan is the real profit making horse in this race, opening at 20/1. Although she’s just one for 14 in her career, she’s only run five times on grass, and the last two are the only two that matter. Both came after she moved to the Maker barn and she finished second both times, one at a mile and seven-sixteenths (one sixteenth farther than she’s running today). We know she can get the trip and considering Maker’s prowess with stakes runners on grass in the past year this gal is not to be taken lightly because if he feels she belongs, particularly with Gaffalione riding, we will not argue.
Always Shopping opens as the nine to five favorite and will get bet down as she won the La Prevoyante Stakes in January as the even money favorite. She won at a mile and three-sixteenths over the course prior to that and both wins were with authority, so she can win again, but she’s no standout owing to the quality of a horse like Sorrel, the consistency of a horse like Morning Molly and the prowess Enjoyitwhilewecan’s trainer (Mike Maker).
Note I also used Crystalle on the pick 3, pick 4 and double tickets above and below. This is because Crystalle beat Enjoyitwhilewecan in the mile and seven-sixteenths race and if I think Enjoyitwhilewecan can win, it would be a mistake to leave Crystalle off tickets.
Win: This is a race to bet two, possibly three horses, as they offer value against an overbet favorite.
Sorrel and Morning Molly should be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Enjoyitwhilewecan can be bet to win at odds of 6/1 or more.
Luckily, we don’t have to do the math figuring how much to bet on horses at various odds by using the Dutching tool at Amwager, which will proportion our wagers perfectly for the best edge.
Exacta: Just for the minimum $1 I would play Enjoyitwhilewecan over ALL then also (the opposite) ALL over Enjoyitwhilewecan.
Morning Molly, Sorrel and Always Shopping over Morning Molly, Sorrel, Always Shopping, Enjoyitwhilewecan and Crystalle over ALL.
Race 13: Enjoyitwhilewecan, Morning Molly, Sorrel, Crystalle, Always Shopping
Race 14: Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Spielberg