The Take The A Train Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont at the Big A – Post Time 4:45 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Pillar of Beauty, Cadenza

Pillar of Beauty will not be among the favorites, but this filly can win and make us a profit. She won a turf sprint in her debut last December, a rare first-time win for trainer Bill Mott. She showed maturity in that race, taking her time in third until the stretch, when she found a path and cleared by a length and a quarter. Junior Alvarado rode her in her debut, but another jockey has ridden her in her two races since then, where she finished fifth and second. In her last race, Pillar of Beauty was fifth on the turn, went three paths at the three-sixteenth pole, and finished second. The winner won by four lengths. That filly (Slay the Day) then won the Limestone Stakes in April and finished second in the Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill Downs last week. With Alvarado back aboard, Pillar of Beauty should run well, given the company she just finished second to.

Cadenza finished second in the Serena Song Stakes on March 28. She won her other race this year on February 21, and both races were on all-weather tracks. She won her only turf race, a sprint, in August at Saratoga, so she can return to the turf. The horse she finished second to, Hen Party, finished second in the Mamzelle Stakes. Cadenza beat Hen Party in a race on February 21. She is a quality filly and has a good chance to win.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Pillar of Beauty, Cadenza at odds of 9 to 5.

Exacta box: Pillar of Beauty, Cadenza

Doubles:

Race 8: Pillar of Beauty, Cadenza

Race 9: Growth Equity, Trendsetter

The Peter Pan Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont at the Big – Post Time 5:11 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Growth Equity, Trendsetter

In this year’s Peter Pan Stakes, three of the six horses want to lead from the start. Those three are Azam, Talk to Me Jimmy, and Gulfy. All three wear blinkers and have led from the start in all six of their wins. It will only take two of the three to set a faster-than-average pace to set up the closers. One of the three closers is Bull by the Horns, who earned his only win this year on the all-weather track. On his two routes on conventional dirt, he lacked any kick, finishing third and seventh.

That leaves only two horses to capitalize on the fast pace and finish second. The first is Growth Equity, who finished second in his two starts, both one-turn races. When he stretched to a route on March 20, he stalked second for the first half mile, then won easily by four lengths. Growth Equity is trained by Chad Brown, who has won this race three times in the previous 10 years, including last year, 2020, and 2017. The 2017 winner was Timeline, which won the Peter Pan off a one-turn mile in his maiden, the same way Growth Equity did in his last race. Growth Equity improved in his second and third races and appears capable of winning this race.

Trendsetter was 32 to 1 when he won the Lexington Stakes last month at Keeneland. That race was faster than average, and he rallied from fourth to the lead, three wide at the three-sixteenth pole, then drove past to win by two lengths. In his only two-turn race, in March, on the all-weather track at Turfway Park, he moved to within a head of the leaders in the stretch but didn’t sustain his kick. The Lexington was on conventional dirt, the same as at Aqueduct. This race should be made to order for Trendsetter again, but he won’t be a long shot today. Since his last race, Trendsetter put in an excellent workout, third best of 100, in four lengths (47.8), which tells us he is ready to run another “A” effort.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Growth Equity at 3 to 2 or higher.

Trendsetter at 5 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: Box Growth Equity, Trendsetter

Growth Equity over Trendsetter

Senorita Stakes – Race 9 at Santa Park – Post Time 8:07 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Majoram, Light Won Up

Also consider: Bella Lyra

Majoram went off as the 2-to-1 favorite in an allowance race last month, in which three horses in this race also competed. She finished fifth, but that race should be crossed off her past performances because she stumbled at the gate and was eighth, 13 lengths back at the first quarter. At that point, she had no shot. Her only other race was last November, when she started sixth, broke a bit slowly, quickly improved to fourth while five wide on the turn, and made the lead at the eighth, winning by three-quarters of a length. This filly has a first-class pedigree for the turf, and if not for the problem in her last race, she might have won both her races. Trainer McCarthy feels she fits, and her dam’s other foal (Spiced Up) won her first start in a turf sprint and the Mahony Stakes in her second start. Top jockey Juan Hernandez, who rode her last time, rides her again. She starts at 10 to 1 odds.

Light Won Up won this downhill turf course in February in the Sweet Life Stakes. That was her first turf race, and she surged from fourth at the quarter pole, passed the other three horses in front of her, and pulled away to win by nearly three lengths. She went to Kentucky in April and entered the Limestone Stakes, but finished fourth and lacked any kick. That was one furlong shorter than her last race, but she is back at the six-and-a-half-furlong distance, back in California, and has a chance to rebound.

Bella Lyra is a German-bred horse making her North American debut. She finished in the money in six of her seven races and finished second in both of her last two races. Her last race was on February 28, a stakes race, after a four-month layoff, and she could compete in this stakes field.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Majoram at 2 to 1 or higher.

Light Won Up at 2 to 1 or higher, but starting odds are 9 to 5, so we will use her in exactas instead.

Bella Lyra at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Majoram and Light Won Up

Box Majoram, Light Won Up, Bella Lyra

Majoram over all