Fourstardave S. (Grade 1) – Race 10 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Classic Q/Mi Bago, Zulu Kingdom, Deterministic

Mark Casse has Mi Bago and Classic Q and has said that only one will run in this race. Both are “early” horses who won stakes in their last two starts. Whichever horse Casse runs, I feel it is the horse to beat. Classic Q, a filly, recently won the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes at one mile on the inner turf at Saratoga, the same distance as the Fourstardave. She also won the Grade 1 Distaff Turf Mile before that. Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez rode her both times, and he fits her perfectly. She gets up to five pounds over the males in this race, and historically, females have a record of 2-2-1 in seven starts by four horses. One of those was Get Stormy, who won the Fourstardave in 2019 and 2021, and finished second in 2020. Casse trained her, and he also won this race in 2017 with World Approval. If Classic Q runs, she should get the lead early, and she can win again. Her odds start at 8 to 1.

If Mi Bago runs and Classic Q is scratched, he will be the horse the others will be chasing early. He just won the Grade 3 Kelso Stakes (a dead heat with Zulu Kingdom). The Kelso winners won the Fourstardave in 2023 (Case Creed) and 2024 (Carl Spackler). Consider that Mi Bago has won six of 14 turf stakes races. Mi Bago has a strong shot to win his third consecutive stakes at Saratoga. He opens at 12 to 1, while Zulu Kingdom starts at 7 to 2.

Zulu Kingdom is my second pick (behind whichever horse Casse starts). He has won six times (unofficially) in his seven races since March 2025. I said unofficially because he won the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes this week last year, but he was disqualified to fourth. His only poor effort came on June 7, when he led from the stretch in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes but was outfinished. Since then, he returned to stalking, recently rallied from fourth to a dead heat with Mi Bago in the Kelso Stakes. Flavien Prat has ridden him in all but one of his last 10 races, winning eight times.

Deterministic won this race in 2025, and he won both of his races this year. He also won the same two preps he did last year, the Grade 3 Fort Marcy and the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes. He has won five straight stakes and has a shot to win the 2026 Fourstardave. However, he is the favorite, and considering that any of Classic Q/Mi Bago, Zulu Kingdom, and Deterministic all have no better than a 25% chance, his fair odds are 3 to 1, but his starting odds are 2 to 1.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Classic Q or Mi Bago (whichever runs) at 3 to 1 or higher.

Zulu Kingdom can be bet at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Box Classic Q/Mi Bago, Zulu Kingdom, Deterministic

Double and Pick 3:

Race 10: Classic Q/Mi Bago, Zulu Kingdom, Deterministic

Race 11: Title Role, West End Kid, Remember Mamba

Race 12: Nitrogen, Magnitude

Saratoga Derby (Grade 1) – Race 11 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:52 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Title Role, West End Kid, Remember Mamba

The top three horses from the Belmont Derby are back in this year’s Saratoga Derby and all can win. Those are Title Role, West End Kid, and Remember Mamba. The other seven aren’t nearly as likely. All three are favorites but none will be heavy.

The winner of the Belmont Derby was Title Role, who won four of his five starts. His last race was the Belmont Derby, which was his first in the U.S. He stalked second from the start, then got a half-length away with an eighth to run, and he responded as West End Kid made up two lengths at the same point, holding by a nose.  Although Title Role earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, three points less than when winning the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas (107), it was a good effort, and he should improve in his second race in the U.S. With no other horse in the Saratoga Derby showing early speed, Title Role will assume the role of pacesetter. Even though he won the Belmont Derby, Title Role has the highest starting odds of the three, at 9 to 2.

West End Kid is taking blinkers off, so he will be second from the start. West End Kid has won three straight races, including the Grade Pennine Ridge Stakes, his next-to-last race. He improved from 99 to 104, and he should run well again. He starts at 7 to 2.

Remember Mamba started sixth in the Belmont Derby and was fifth at the eighth pole. He ran very well into a slow pace (49.2, 113), and all the top three finished the same. Remember Mamba won his first three races, including the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes with a 100 figure. He then finished second in the American Turf Stakes, improving to a 104 figure, the same as he earned in the Belmont Derby. Even though he was third and the pace may not be to his advantage, he starts as the favorite at 3 to 1.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Title Role and West End Kid at 2 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Box Title Role, West End Kid, Remember Mamba

Double:

Race 11: Title Role, West End Kid, Remember Mamba

Race 12: Nitrogen, Magnitude

Whitney Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 12 at Saratoga – Post Time 6:33 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Nitrogen, Magnitude

In third: Antiquarian

On paper, this 2026 Whitney Stakes is a well-matched field. Six of the seven have won at least one Grade 1 stakes race, and two have won Grade 2 races. Combined, they have won 39 times and earned more than $31 million. However, some aren’t in top form or don’t have the class of some of the others.

The horses who, for one reason or another, are unlikely to win: Forged Steel and White Abarrio are both trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., who has won only three of 38 graded stakes on dirt in New York over the past five years. Forged Steel won his best race on May 25, the Grade 2 Gold Cup Stakes in California, in a five-horse field, and the second finisher was an allowance winner. White Abarrio won the Whitney in 2023, earning a sensational 122 Equibase Speed Figure, but he is now a seven-year-old horse, and his last Grade 1 stakes win was in January 2025 in Florida. In last year’s Whitney, he finished fourth. Tiztactic (an upcoupled entry with Magnitude) has only won two races in 2025 and 2026 from 10 starts. In his three races this year, he only won an allowance race and earned 103 and 105 figures for his recent efforts. He will need to do a lot to be competitive. 

Then we get two of the best horses of 2025 – Sovereignty and Baeza, but neither is having as good a year as they were last year. Although he was last year’s Horse of the Year, Sovereignty had a career-best year in 2025 when he won the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont, the Jim Dandy, and the Travers. He is now a four-year-old and isn’t as good as he was last year. Coming back from an eight-month layoff in April, Sovereignty finished second behind White Abarrio in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, which was a big effort. He should have trounced the field in the Stephen Foster, but he ran even for the first half and finished third. His two efforts this year earned figures of 109 and 108, and he has to improve to beat the top three contenders.

Baeza finished third behind Sovereignty in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, third in the Belmont Stakes, and second in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He did win the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby with a 114 figure, beating Magnitude, but he finished sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Then he took time off, coming back in May when he finished third in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes. In his only race of the year, Baeza was no match for Magnitude in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster on June 26, although he matched his best figure of 114.

Now to the top two contenders – Nitrogen, Magnitude

Nitrogen (a filly) gets three pounds lighter than males, which can help in this type of race. Historically, six fillies or mares have won the Whitney Stakes, and in recent history Serena’s Song finished second. Nitrogen won eight of 16 races, with five second-place finishes. Her career best came in her last race when she won the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes on June 5 by nearly 13 lengths and earned a career-best 117 figure. Only Magnitude has run that fast this year, when he earned a 116 figure in the Foster. Nitrogen can win from the start as she did in the Phipps or the 2025 Alabama Stakes last August at Saratoga. She’s won all three of her races at that track. Jose Ortiz has been aboard for her last 14 races and all eight wins. Ortiz is getting off Nitrogen to ride Magnitude. However, Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez is getting the ride, so that is no problem. Velazquez won five of 25 stakes races for Casse over the last year, including with Classic Q in the Saratoga Derby in race 11. Nitrogen has a good chance to win the Whitney Stakes this year.

Magnitude has won four straight stakes races, from the Grade 2 Clark Stakes in November through the Stephen Foster in June. He also traveled across half the world to win the Dubai World Cup in March, where he earned a career-best 127 figure. He gets the rail, so based on his win in the Foster with an 116 figure, when no other horse got within a length of him and winning that race in hand. He is going to be very tough to beat, but Nitrogen, with five pounds less, may be able to run just a bit better.

As for Antiquarian, he opens at 10 to 1 and I think he has a shot to finish second or third. We can ignore his last race, where he stumbled at the start of the Suburban Stakes on July 4 and had no shot after the winner (Phileas Fogg) ran off his feet at the start. Two races before that, in May, off a six-month layoff, Antiquarian won the Westchester Stakes by nearly six lengths, earning an 113 figure. He also won the 2025 Grade 2 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes in August, earning a 112 figure. If he gets a good break, he can run as well as he did in either of those two races.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Nitrogen, Magnitude at 2 to 1 or higher.

Exacta:  Box Nitrogen, Magnitude

Trifecta: Nitrogen, Magnitude over Nitrogen, Magnitude over Antiquarian