Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes – Race 10 at Pimlico – Post Time 4:05 PM Eastern
Turf sprints are always interesting and often there are a few horses which excel at these types of races, some running fast in front from start to finish. However, in this case, there are FIVE horses (Grab the Gold, The Critical Way, Hollis, Push to Start and Firecrow) who have the same style and it’s only going to take a couple of them to sizzle early and fizzle late while the ones that end up in a pressing role may not know what to do and give up as they really have never passed horses late.
Completed Pass benefits tremendously from that hot early pace scenario. He missed by a neck in last year’s Turf Sprint (run in September) when Hollis lead from start to finish (which is highly unlikely today) and he won last month on the course at the distance in his first start after five months off. Likely to be even more fit second off the layoff, and with a good post to allow him to get mid-pack position before the far turn, Completed Pass appears very capable of notching his 10th career win today. By the way, he won this race in 2019.
Dubini returns from a layoff since last August when fifth in a similar stakes. Just prior to that he finished fastest of all to win, and he put three “A” races in a row together in similar turf sprints, including two stakes, in the summer and fall of 2019. Having finished first or second in half of his 24 career races, Dubini has a shot to be passing most if not all of these late to be part of the exacta and trifecta at the very least.
Boldor gets the rail and that’s my only concern, because in spite of being a stalker and closer if all five “early pace” types go he will be sixth in the early stages and jockey Santana will have to find a way through in the stretch to win. He finished second to turf star Maven last month in a highly rated race and won a stakes on the turf in the summer of 2019, with nearly every one of his races between then and last month on dirt. Santana getting on for Asmussen is a positive factor and I expect this horse who has been first or second in half of his 16 races to date to give a good account of himself.
Win bets: Completed Pass at 8 to 5 or higher.
Consider a second, smaller (about half that on Completed Pass) win bet on Dubini or Bolder (whichever has the higher odds near post time) at 3 to 1 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Trifecta (this is preferred over the exacta because of the 13 horse field):
Completed Pass, Boldor and Dubini over Completed Pass, Boldor and Dubini over ALL.
Optionally play Completed Pass, Boldor and Dubini in first and third, with ALL in second. This way we win if any two of the three finish first and third, and if the three finish first, second and third we win twice if we make both bets.
Double: (Optional if you played the pick 3 in race 9 and French Empire won)
Race 10: Boldor, Completed Pass, Dubini
Race 11: Laki, Mucho, Seven Nation Army, Special Reserve