Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets - October 23, 2021
Noble Damsel Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 3:47 PM
High Opinion, In a Hurry and Tamahere are the main contenders to win this race.
High Opinion ran the best race of her career when last seen at the end of August when rallying up the rail late to miss by a nose in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes. Moving down one notch for this Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes, Saez stays aboard after being up for the first time and that effort if repeated here wins, as well as she ran that last race without Lasix and many of these are going without Lasix after using it last out. Better still, High Opinion won at a similar one turn turf trip at Belmont last October and her strong half-mile turf drill six days ago screams she’s ready to run an “A” race.
In a Hurry has run the two best races of her career in her two most recent starts, first a nose defeat at Saratoga then a strong two and three-quarter length win. Castellano was up for the first time in victory and rides back and this filly has superb tactical speed so could take the lead from the start oR could sit second or third and come home strongly. The only slight question is she is taking lasix off for the first time since her maiden win in September, 2019 in the second start of her career.
Tamahere wired the field in the Violet Stakes at Monmouth last month and she won the 2020 Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes on this course last October. In between she lost five in a row but her best (besides the Violet) came when beaten just three-quarters of a length in the Ballston Spa where after leading from the start she was passed very late by three horses including High Opinion. She won the Sands Point after sitting back in seventh of eight early so she has the ability to come home strongly which may be the better tactic here if In a Hurry goes for the lead from her rail post.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: High Opinion at 2 to 1 or more.
I would consider In a Hurry for a win bet at 5 to 2 or more.
“IF” both fillies are above minimum odds for making a win bet near post time, they can be bet using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta:
Box High Opinion, In a Hurry and Tamahere
Doubles:
Race 8: High Opinion, In a Hurry, Tamahere
Race 9: Sifting Sands, Never Surprised, Soldier Rising
Race 8: High Opinion
Race 9: Sifting Sands, Never Surprised, Soldier Rising
Race 8: High Opinion, In a Hurry, Tamahere
Race 9: Soldier Rising
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Perryville Stakes – Race 7 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern
Pipeline, Pickin’ Time and Soup and Sandwich are the main win contenders in this race.
He’smyhoneybadger and Runway Magic can be considered for second on exacta tickets.
Pipeline gets preference among three win contenders in this seven furlong stakes for three year olds only. His first two starts, one on dirt and the other on turf, were just so-so but the light bulb went ON in career start #3 with the addition of blinkers as he missed by a head after leading late. Cutting back from nine furlongs to this seven furlong trip last out at Saratoga, Pipeline won convincingly by three lengths from just off the pace and if Chad Brown thinks he fits here I can’t argue, particularly as his last two Equibase Speed Figures of 104 and 99 are as good as any horse in the field. The runner-up from his last race came back to run a big second again and the third horse improved nicely to win its next start. John Velazquez rides back and the horse put in two works at Keeneland so everything looks right.
Pickin’ Time is tied with Boca Boy for four wins, most in the field, his coming in 11 starts and whereas Boca Boy, as well as Irish Unity and Cool Quest, all appear to be need-the-lead types, Pickin’ Time can stalk just as he did two back when coming from third to win a minor stakes at Monmouth and more importantly as he did when winning the Grade 3 Nashua stakes last November as a two year old. In his most recent start, in the tougher Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes, Pickin’ Time was not disgraced one bit when second to top sprinter Jackie’s Warrior, who is headed to the Breeders’ Cup.
Soup and Sandwich was talked about as a Derby horse when breaking his maiden in January sprinting by seven lengths then stretching out to two-turns and winning by almost three lengths in February. Even after a runner-up effort in the Florida Derby he was on the way to big things but after a 19th place Derby effort he was given five months off. With a solid set of morning drills including a best of 99 four furlong work last month, Soup and Sandwich fits perfectly here as his debut win came at six and one-half furlongs and Casse wins with an above average 20% of his starters off these types of layoffs.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Pipeline at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
I would consider a win bet on Pickin’ Time at odds of 3 to 1 or more as well.
This is another race where a Dutching tool, like the one which is free at Amwager, really helps. We are likely to have two horses go to post at higher than the minimum odds but not at the same odds so the tool really helps us gain an edge mathematically when wagering on more than one horse to win.
Exacta: Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline over He’smyhoneybadger, Runway Magic, Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline.
Trifecta: Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline over He’smyhoneybadger, Runway Magic, Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline over He’smyhoneybadger, Runway Magic, Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline.
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Hill Prince Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont – Post Time 4:21 PM Eastern
Soldier Rising, Never Surprised and Sifting Sands are the main win contenders.
War Bomber, Original and Public Sector can be used in second on some exacta tickets.
Soldier Rising is more likely to win then either of the other two other win contenders but this is a wide open race and the odds near post time may help decide if he is just a horse to key in the win position on exacta tickets if the odds are too low for a win bet, or if one of the other two may be bet to win with much bigger returns possible. Soldier Rising won two of four in France and finished second in the other two, before importing to the U.S. in August. He nearly won the $1 million Saratoga Derby in his U.S. debut when rallying from 10th with a quarter mile to go and coming up just a length short at the wire, then he came back in the similar Jockey Club Derby at Belmont last month and ended up second to a very good horse in Yabir. The first of the two efforts earned a 99 Equibase figure and the second a field high (by far) 110 figure that makes Soldier Rising the one to beat unless another horse really improves off their most recent effort and I like the jockey change to Rosario, who wins a lot of races for Clement on closers just like this horse.
Never Surprised possesses the same record now as Soldier Rising did when coming to the U.S. as he’s been first twice and second twice in four career starts. The last three have all been stakes races including when second to Public Sector in the Grade 3 Saranac Stakes last month but that came off an eight month layoff so I think he’s going to leap frog over the horse which beat him in terms of improvement. Whether that’s good enough to beat Soldier Rising is another matter.
Sifting Sands is one of three for Chad Brown and I think the best of that trio based on his two wins in a row since coming back from a three month layoff in July. First came a first level allowance win at Saratoga with a 96 figure then a career best effort with a 107 figure in the restricted Better Talk Now Stakes. Franco rode him beautifully both times and if he continues his pattern of improvement he could be right there with Soldier Rising at the finish.Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Soldier Rising to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
I would consider either Never Surprised or Sifting Sands (whichever has the highest odds near post time) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
This is another race where a Dutching tool, like the one which is free at Amwager, really helps. We are likely to have two horses go to post at higher than the minimum odds but not at the same odds so the tool really helps us gain an edge mathematically when wagering on more than one horse to win.
Exactas:
Soldier Rising over War Bomber, Original, Sifting Sands, Public Sector and Never Surprised
Soldier Rising, Never Surprised and Sifting Sands over War Bomber, Original, Sifting Sands, Public Sector and Never Surprised
Trifecta: Soldier Rising over War Bomber, Original, Sifting Sands, Public Sector and Never Surprised over War Bomber, Original, Sifting Sands, Public Sector and Never Surprised
