Perryville Stakes – Race 7 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern
Pipeline, Pickin’ Time and Soup and Sandwich are the main win contenders in this race.
He’smyhoneybadger and Runway Magic can be considered for second on exacta tickets.
Pipeline gets preference among three win contenders in this seven furlong stakes for three year olds only. His first two starts, one on dirt and the other on turf, were just so-so but the light bulb went ON in career start #3 with the addition of blinkers as he missed by a head after leading late. Cutting back from nine furlongs to this seven furlong trip last out at Saratoga, Pipeline won convincingly by three lengths from just off the pace and if Chad Brown thinks he fits here I can’t argue, particularly as his last two Equibase Speed Figures of 104 and 99 are as good as any horse in the field. The runner-up from his last race came back to run a big second again and the third horse improved nicely to win its next start. John Velazquez rides back and the horse put in two works at Keeneland so everything looks right.
Pickin’ Time is tied with Boca Boy for four wins, most in the field, his coming in 11 starts and whereas Boca Boy, as well as Irish Unity and Cool Quest, all appear to be need-the-lead types, Pickin’ Time can stalk just as he did two back when coming from third to win a minor stakes at Monmouth and more importantly as he did when winning the Grade 3 Nashua stakes last November as a two year old. In his most recent start, in the tougher Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes, Pickin’ Time was not disgraced one bit when second to top sprinter Jackie’s Warrior, who is headed to the Breeders’ Cup.
Soup and Sandwich was talked about as a Derby horse when breaking his maiden in January sprinting by seven lengths then stretching out to two-turns and winning by almost three lengths in February. Even after a runner-up effort in the Florida Derby he was on the way to big things but after a 19th place Derby effort he was given five months off. With a solid set of morning drills including a best of 99 four furlong work last month, Soup and Sandwich fits perfectly here as his debut win came at six and one-half furlongs and Casse wins with an above average 20% of his starters off these types of layoffs.
Win bets: Pipeline at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
I would consider a win bet on Pickin’ Time at odds of 3 to 1 or more as well.
This is another race where a Dutching tool, like the one which is free at Amwager, really helps. We are likely to have two horses go to post at higher than the minimum odds but not at the same odds so the tool really helps us gain an edge mathematically when wagering on more than one horse to win.
Exacta: Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline over He’smyhoneybadger, Runway Magic, Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline.
Trifecta: Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline over He’smyhoneybadger, Runway Magic, Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline over He’smyhoneybadger, Runway Magic, Soup and Sandwich, Pickin’ Time and Pipeline.