Suwannee River Stakes – Race 5 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 1:54 PM Eastern
This is an awesome betting race with a field of 12 going a mile on turf and a 3/1 starting favorite in Shifty She, who is not entirely vulnerable but who can be beaten.
The horse I think can beat the favorite is Alms, with a four for eight career record, all on turf, including three straight stakes wins in the second through fourth starts of her career, including two grade 3 stakes like this one. She almost won the Grade 3 Appalachian Stakes in the summer of 2020, missing by a nose and a head on the wire, but something went amiss after that and Alms was away from the races for nearly 16 months after that, returning at the end of October of this year and in a sprint which was nothing more than a prep. Moving up considerably just three weeks ago second off the layoff, Alms missed by a neck in a non-graded stakes on the turf at Fair Grounds at a mile and one-sixteenth, which will turn out to be a KEY RACE. The winner in that 11 horse field was Breeze Rider, the ONLY horse to have run back, and that filly won the My Charmer Stakes one week ago and easily by almost five lengths. Alms is only the second horse to come back out of that race and is sure to improve markedly, and as she’s already a multiple grade three stakes winner and as she gets red hot Luis Saez for the first time, is the one to beat in my opinion.
Shifty She has won six of 10 including three of six this year. The first of those was at this mile trip at GP in the non-graded Powder Break Stakes then she won the statebred Ginger Punch Stakes before third and fourth place finishes. The wins came with Gonzalez in the saddle and although Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode her subsequently those were her two defeated but when Gonzalez got back on for the Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes in October, Shifty She returned to winning form. She appears to need the lead to win and may get pressure from Princess Causeway, and potentially others, but she has a better post and she did come from off the pace under Gonzalez to win the Powder Break so the pace scenario is not that big of a concern.
Keeper of Time and Princess Causeway have a bit less probability to win as compared to the top two listed contenders BUT their odds make them worth the risk for inclusion on exactas we play at the very least, and possibly for a small win bet in the case of Keeper of Time, who opens at 15/1. Keeper of Time won a Group 3 Stakes in April in a field of 15 and at 80 to 1 odds, getting up in the last jump to win by a head. Importing to the U.S. and moving to the strong Brendan Walsh barn, Keeper of Time ran well especially after four months off to be third of nine in the Riskaverse Stakes at Saratoga at this mile trip, her first ever two turn race. After a really poor effort one month later, perhaps coming back too quickly, she rebounded to third while wide from a very poor post in the Glen Cove Stakes at Belmont In October, where she was beaten a neck for second. With Gaffalione getting on and with a VERY strong half-mile turf workout (47.6, fourth best of 27) coming into the race, Keeper of Time could easily run a lot better than her double digit odds suggest. Princess Causeway has won six races in her career just like Shifty She, but in 19 starts (compared to 10). However, her three for 11 record on turf is what really matters, including a 1-1-1 record in four starts this year. The best of those came in a stakes quality classified allowance race in October at Keeneland where she led from start to finish and beat a couple of nice horses in Dominga and Our Bay B Ruth. Like Keeper of Time, Princess Causeway put in a very strong turf workout (58 flat and best of 23) coming into the race and must be respected.
Win bets: Alms to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more
A smaller win bet on Keeper of Time at 9 to 2 or more is called for as well.
As I have a much stronger opinion of Alms I want to be more to win on her, but with Keeper of Time likely to go to post at high odds we can bet much less to win the same amount. This is where proportioning our bets comes in very handy, and using the “Dutching Tool” at Amwager.com accomplishes our goal, and at no cost. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Alms and Shifty She over Alms, Shifty She, Keeper of Time and Princess Causeway
Box Alms, Shifty She, Keeper of Time and Princess Causeway
Alms and Shifty She over Alms, Shifty She, Keeper of Time, Princess Causeway, In a Hurry, Classic Lady, Summering and Sweet Melania