Demoiselle Stakes – Race 9 at Aqueduct – Post Time 3:43 PM Eastern
As noted from the pick 3 plays at the end of race eight, this race is wide open. The 2 to 1 morning line favorite is Nest based on a maiden win and third place finish in the Tempted Stakes, where she was moderately regarded at 7 to 2. Magic Circle, who beat Nest by a neck for second, was 11 to 1 in that race and opens at 7 to 2, with the likely reason Nest opens at lower odds being the Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr. combination. I’m not sold on either as having much of a higher probability to win as nearly every other horse in the field. I think six of the eight can win but for pick 3 purposes on tickets 1 and 3 above am using all eight because of the minimal difference in cost.
I like Nostalgic slightly over other horses with about the same probability to win such as Magic Circle, Nest, Tap the Faith and Venti Valentine. I also can’t ignore Full Count Felicia because her 30/1 starting odds are out of line if she repeats her last effort, which was run on turf, on dirt. Nostalgic dominated by almost eight lengths in her debut in October at Belmont, at a mile and one-sixteenth, run around one turn. She is the ONLY horse to have won at the distance and most of the others are stretching out from a mile. Her breeding is impeccable as she’s by Medaglia d’Oro out of a Tapit mare. The debut was slow based on figures but I will ignore that because Bill Mott is the trainer and historically when Mott thinks a last out maiden winner is ready for stakes, he’s right. Mott has won with 10 of 26 starters going maiden to stakes over the last five years, including four for eight at Aqueduct. One of those was in the 2019 Demoiselle with Lake Avenue, and Mott’s Millefeuille finished second last year in this race off a maiden win. With so many lightly raced fillies I’ll rely on the Hall of Fame trainer here.
As previous mentioned, I don’t understand why Magic Circle opens at higher odds (7/2) as compared to Nest, who she beat for second by a neck in the Tempted Stakes. Both fillies ran well and can run well here too. Tap the Faith won a one turn mile race in her only start under Rosario, who rides back. The 79 Equibase figure was lower than the 86 Magic Circle and Nest earned but they were making their third and second starts, respectively, so Tap the Faith could improve significantly in her second start. Venti Valentine won the Maid of the Mist Stakes at the end of October, in her second career start and also at the distance of a mile around one turn.
Then there’s Full Count Felicia, who is still a maiden, having run three times, all on turf. She finished last of 10 in her debut then improved BIG TIME to be third, beaten a nose for second, in her second start. Then last out at a mile, on turf she led from the start on solid fractions and battled head-and-head the entire length of the stretch before eventually beaten a head on the wire. The Equibase figure came up very strong, 98, and if you recall from the Remsen Mo Donegal earned a 97 figure breaking his maiden around the same time. I get why she’s 30 to 1 to start as a maiden and trying dirt but War Front is a fine dirt sire (for example War of Will in the 2019 Preakness at 1 3/16 miles), and the distance is no problem.
Nostalgic at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Full Count Felicia at odds of 6 to 1 or more.
When we consider wagers on two or more overlays from fair (minimum odds), we can and should adjust our bets accordingly in order to maximize our profit both in the short term and in the long term. That can be best accomplished by using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Nostalgic and Full Count Felicia over ALL
ALL over Nostalgic and Full Count Felicia
Optional Doubles (depending if the pick 3s played in race 8 are still live):
Race 9: ALL (8 horses)
Race 10: Following Sea, Ginobili, Olympiad
Race 9: Nostalgic
Race 10: ALL (8 horses)
Race 9: ALL (8 horses)
Race 10: Olympiad