Dania Beach Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:11 PM Eastern
Grand Sonata exits the Central Park Stakes on the turf at Aqueduct and not only was that his best effort (in his third career start) in spite of finishing fifth but he could have won the race without trouble at TWO different points. He was bumped and put in tight shortly after the start so had to drop back to last of eight early then he had all kinds of traffic issues in the last three-sixteenths of a mile, including when behind a wall of horses in the stretch. Although too late to win after he angled out for a clear path, the colt closed sensationally well and considering he gets a jockey change to Gaffalione, up for his only win right before that, he looks fairly likely to roll by the field late. That is, IF, there’s no trouble here which is always a possibility on turf.
Gingrich hasn’t been seen since October when, in an 11 horse field at Keeneland at this mile turf trip he was visually brilliant as he exploded late to go from sixth to third while three wide on the turn before drawing off by two and one-half lengths. He’s been working very well on the turf for his return, gets Paco Lopez, and offers superb value opening at 6 to 1.
Smokin T also enters the race off a win, last month on the Aqueduct turf. He ran as fast (95 Equibase figure) breaking his maiden as Grand Sonata did (91) when fifth in that stakes, but the latter could have run even better. Still, Smokin T put it all together in his fourth lifetime start, third on grass, and further improvement to handle the jump in class, means he is certainly a contender.
Win Bets: Grand Sonata to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
I would absolutely consider a win bet on Gingrich at 3 to 1 or more, and on Smokin T at 3 to 1 or more, whichever is the higher odds near post time.
This is another race where, when wagering on two horses for the best mathematical edge, a DUTCHING tool like the one at Amwager, really helps us maximize the value for our win bets.
Box Grand Sonata, Gingrich and Smokin T
Race 9: Grand Sonata, Gingrich and Smokin T
Race 10: Strike Hard, Graphic Detail