Race at Del Mar – Post Time 7 PM Eastern (4 Pacific)
This is a very deep first level allowance/optional claiming field and a great race to pack between two stakes. With Took Charge a need-the-lead type it’s only going to take one other horse to go with him through a 44 second half mile and set up the stalkers and closers and I think Sumo (on the outside) is that horse as he’s been first or second early in all three career starts, plus wears blinkers like Took Charge. Of the stalkers and closers, and there’s a bunch, the main group which can win consists of Escape Route, Next Revolt, California Street and Letsgetlucky.
Escape Route gets slight preference because he must missed by a neck at this allowance condition last time out on 10/16, at seven furlongs, after stalking in fourth-fifth early. The cut back from seven to six and one-half furlongs, plus the jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr., plus having one of the best last race Equibase Speed Figures (100) in the field, give him a big shot to be first or second.
That being said, Next Revolt may be a better win bet as he is likely to go to post at higher odds. Even though he won very nicely by almost four lengths at the distance in his most recent start on 11/3 that win came in a claiming race so he may get less respect as compared to others. He rallied from fourth to win and earned 101 figure which tells me he fits and two before that, at a mile, he also rallied from fourth to win, but was disqualified. His other win this year came in March at seven furlongs so this trip, this track and the pace give him a solid shot.
California Street rallied from last of five to win last time out on 10/23 and from last of six to win before that three weeks earlier, drawing off by eight lengths. That win came in a claiming race so it shows Next Revolt can make the jump because the second of California Street’s wins came in a starter allowance. Rispoli was up for both wins and rides back and the 104 and 96 figures earned strongly state this horse fits as a win contender here.
Letsgetlucky rounds out the quartet of main contenders, never off the board in six races, five of them dirt sprints. He powered away to win by three lengths on 10/30 in a Cal-Bred allowance race under Van Dyke, who rides back, and he gets a good outside post to watch the speed duel unfold and stay out of traffic trouble before rallying. The 101 figure lines up here and could be improved upon in the horse’s second start off a layoff.
Win bets: We need to let the tote board help us decide here and the strategy should be to bet TWO of the four below, those at the highest odds, near post time.
Escape Route at 2 to 1 or more.
Next Revolt at 3 to 1 or more.
California Street at 7 to 2 or more.
Letsgetlucky at 7 to 2 or more.
When we consider wagers on two or more overlays from fair (minimum odds), we can and should adjust our bets accordingly in order to maximize our profit both in the short term and in the long term. That can be best accomplished by using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Box Escape Route, Next Revolt, California Street and Letsgetlucky
Optionally, also play Escape Route, Next Revolt, California Street and Letsgetlucky over Escape Route, Next Revolt, California Street, Letsgetlucky, Took Charge and Sumo (the early leaders who can hang on for second).