Bryan Station Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Camp Hope, Yes This Time and Point Me By are the main win contenders.
Camp Hope comes back for the second time at the Keeneland meeting and there is every reason to have faith trainer Ken McPeek knows the colt is the type to be able to do it as many horses have done over the years successfully. He won on 10/8 at a mile and one-eighth on grass powerfully by five lengths after opening up by six with an eighth of a mile to go and was TOTALLY WRAPPED up by his jockey Hernandez (who rides back) at the end. That was his second “A” race in a row as he missed by a neck after leading late in a very tough race at Kentucky Downs on the turf at a mile and five sixteenths. Not only is the cut back to a mile going to hit him right between the eyes, his last two Equibase Speed Figures of 102 and 103 are the best in the field, with only Point Me By and Yes This Time having broken the 100 threshold recently. He won that last race leading all the way but before that he rallied from fourth and about six lengths back early so no matter the pace scenario Camp Hope should be very tough in this situation. Additionally, those two races came against three year olds and upward and he’s facing only three year olds today.
Yes This Time finished second in a career-best effort in the Dueling Grounds Derby last time out. Gaffalione was up for the first time and rides back and the 104 figure is as strong as the 103 Camp Hope earned last out. Like Camp Hope, Yes This Time cuts back in distance, from 1 5/16 miles to this one mile trip, which helps sharpen his late kick and gives him a strong shot to earn his seventh career win in his 11th career start.
Point Me By offers value for the exacta, and for a win bet, not offered by the other two, as he opens at 10/1. He won a turf sprint in his debut in June then in spite of finishing fourth ran huge second time out as he was ninth with an eighth of a mile to go and was fourth and beaten just a length at the end. At a mile in his next start, on 8/14, Point Me By won the Grade 1 Bruce D Stakes (formerly the Secretariat) for three year olds only which is identical to this race. Then he shortened up to six and one-half furlongs for the very tough Franklin Simpson Stakes and had no kick. He will appreciate the stretch out to a mile and rounds out the top contenders here as his Bruce D effort earned a 103 figure.
Win bets: Camp Hope to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Point Me By to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
This is another race where a Dutching tool, like the one which is free at Amwager, really helps. We are likely to have two horses have much different odds near post time so the tool really helps us gain an edge mathematically when wagering on more than one horse to win.
Note: Yes This Time can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more but that is his morning line and I doubt he will reach that threshold so we can try to profit from his winning by using him on exacta and trifecta tickets as below.
Box Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope
Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope over Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope, Charles Chrome, Like the King, Scarlett Sky and Dreamer’s Disease.
Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope over ALL over Point Me By, Yes This Time and Camp Hope, Charles Chrome, Like the King, Scarlett Sky and Dreamer’s Disease. (Played in conjunction with the exactas above covers most of the combinations such that we win if any two of the three main contenders finish first and second, or first and third, for us to win. If they happen to finish first, second and third we win both bets).