Key Races & Bets for Saturday, August 2nd, 2025
Saratoga Derby Invitational - Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:28 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Hotazhell
Possible (slight) upset candidate: Final Gambit
For exactas: Juwelier, Test Score, World Beater
Hotazhell has been facing some of the best three year olds in Europe, including Henri Matisse, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year. After finishing second to that colt last August, Hotazhell won a group 2 stakes race in September then a group 1 stakes in October, beating a future group 1 winner in Delacroix. After being rested seven months, Hotazhell returned to finish third in the Group 1 English 2000 Guineas then he finished fifth behind Delacroix in the Group 1 Coral Eclipse, worth $1.3 million. NO horse in this field has those credentials and has been facing that level of company, and the colt who ended his 2024 campaign with a 113 Equibase Speed figure has grown even stronger as a three year old, with a 115 figure in May and 119 in his most recent race, which towers over the rest of this field as the highest figure among any is 108 by Test Score in the Belmont Derby last month. Shane Foley, the only rider Hotazhell has known in eight starts (four of them wins) comes over from Europe for the mount, and it may be very difficult to beat Hotazhell if he repeats any of his last three races.
Final Gambit is interesting and opens at decent enough odds of 6 to 1. He’s bred to adore the grass but only ran on it once prior to the Belmont Derby, where he finished fifth, two lengths behind Test Score. He won the Jeff Ruby Steaks in March on all-weather, but as most horses who run well and who are bred for turf and all-weather, he didn’t run as well on dirt, finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby and then in the Matt Winn steaks. Although well regarded at 5 to 2 in the Belmont Derby, Final Gambit didn’t have much kick, but he adds blinkers for this race and has put in two portentous workouts on the Saratoga turf training track, both showing he could run back to his smashing Jeff Ruby effort where he rallied from last of 12, still 11th with a quarter mile to run, to blow by the field. Prat rides for Cox and that’s significant, and per a Race Lens stat when Cox adds blinkers for a turf route, he gets a big change out of his horses, with 3 wins from seven races and two more finishing second in the past few years.
Except for Capitol Hill, Tiztastic and New Century, who appear a couple of cuts below the others, the rest of the field have chances to run well and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to use them on exacta tickets.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Hotazhell to win at odds as low as 3 to 2, a low odds overlay.
Final Gambit to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Hotazhell over Juwelier, Final Gambit, Test Score, World Beater (this may be a good bet particularly if Hotazhell is the prohibitive betting favorite to win as we can make a better profit than betting him to win).
Final Gambit over Juwelier, Test Score, Hotazhell, World Beater
I would play the first exacta for twice as many units as the second one, for example $4 for the first one and $2 for the second because we would want to win twice with the favorite in the win position.
Double and Pick 3:
Race 9: Hotazhell
Race 10: Ragtime, Kilwin, Echo Sound
Race 11: Sierra Leone, White Abarrio, Post Time, Fierceness
Race 9: Hotazhell, Final Gambit
Race 10: Ragtime, Kilwin, Echo Sound
Race 11: Sierra Leone
Race 9: Hotazhell, Final Gambit
Race 10: Echo Sound
Race 11: Sierra Leone, White Abarrio, Post Time, Fierceness
Test Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:04 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Echo Sound
Other win contenders: Kilwin, Ragtime
Echo Sound won the Victory Ride Stakes at Saratoga a little over four weeks ago, under a hand ride and for her second graded stakes win in a row. Saez rides back from a good outside post and no matter who wants the early lead (likely Me and Molly McGee) Echo Sound can stalk and run the same kind of race. She’s really improved since returning from a six month layoff in May, first earning a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, then improving to a field high 108 figure last month, making her the one to beat.
Kilwin won the Leslie’s Lady Stakes at Churchill Downs at this distance in her most recent race and is also in a definite pattern for improvement, from a 92 figure three back, to 95, then to 104. Jose Ortiz gets on and she’s trained by Rusty Arnold the same as Echo Sound, so must be respected.
Ragtime is a perfect two for two in her career, with both races at this seven furlong trip. Although the last was an allowance race, it was here at Saratoga and earned her a 101 figure which is pretty strong for an allowance race. She was eased up near the wire with a lot of gas left in the tank for this and Mott is usually cautious with his young horses, mostly entering them in stakes only when he thinks they are ready, so this filly rounds out the three main contenders who, combined, have the bulk of the probability to win this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: With about a 40% probability to win, Echo Sound has fair odds/minimum odds of 3 to 2 for considering a win bet and still may be a low odds overlay at around those odds.
Kilwin and Ragtime can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more.
If we do get better than fair odds on two of the three, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exactas: Box Echo Sound, Kilwin and Ragtime
Echo Sound over Kilwin and Ragtime (this may be a good bet particularly if Echo Sound is the prohibitive betting favorite to win as we can make a better profit than betting her to win).
Doubles:
Race 10: Ragtime, Kilwin, Echo Sound
Race 11: Sierra Leone, White Abarrio, Post Time, Fierceness
Race 10: Echo Sound
Race 11: Sierra Leone, White Abarrio, Post Time, Fierceness
Race 10: Ragtime, Kilwin, Echo Sound
Race 11: Sierra Leone
Whitney Stakes - Race 11 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:41 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Sierra Leone
Other win contenders: White Abarrio, Post Time, Fierceness
For some exacta tickets, in the second position: Skippylongstocking
Analysis & Contenders:
Before getting deep into the contender analysis, there are two very interesting things which almost jump off the page when first looking at this year’s Whitney field. The first regards Contrary Thinking, trained by Chad Brown, who also saddles Sierra Leone, and owned by Peter Brant, a part-owner of Sierra Leone. Contrary Thinking has run five times, never past a mile and never around two turns, and he won a first level allowance race in his most recent start. He won that race when leading from start to finish, and considering Sierra Leone runs best when the pace is fast early and no horse with early speed gets an easy lead, I must conclude Contrary Thinking is entered to ensure an honest pace for Sierra Leone to capitalize on. The second very interesting note is about Mindframe, who won the Churchill Downs Stakes in May and the Stepen Foster Stakes in June. Mindframe has jockey Jose Gomez named to ride, who has never ridden the horse previously, and trainer Todd Pletcher has stated it is likely Mindframe is likely to run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at the end of August and will only run in this race is something unforeseen where to happen to his other trainee, Fierceness, in which case it is logical to assume jockey John Velazquez will ride Mindframe.
With those two important factors in mind, I must start with Sierra Leone as the one to beat in this year’s Whitney, particularly if Mindframe withdraws. Sierra Leone rallied courageously in the Stephen Foster Stakes in his most recent race, missing by a length to Mindframe while a length clear of another quality runner in First Mission. That was his first start following three months off, yet Sierra Leone improved to a career-best 117 Equibase Speed Figure despite coming up one length short. That effort was one point higher than the 116 figure Sierra Leone earned winning the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic and which is likely to be even higher in the colt’s third start of the year, particularly with some strong early speed targets to run down in the form of stablemate Contrary Thinking as well as Mama’s Gold, who has led from the start in his last six races and who has earned all six career wins leading from start to finish.
White Abarrio has won 10 of 20 career starts run on a fast dirt track, which he will likely get in this year’s Whitney. In the 2023 running of this race, White Abarrio stalked the pacesetter in second for the first three quarters of a mile then won easily by six lengths, earning a career-best 122 Figure. Three years later at the age of six he’s still winning graded stakes, having captured the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January with a 110 figure. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has been aboard for the horse’s last five wins including the 2023 Whitney, and he (along with his agent) have chosen White Abarrio over Skippylongstocking, who he rode to victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup in May. It also should be noted Ortiz, Jr. has ridden Mindframe to three graded stakes victories this year.
Some readers may be surprised that Post Time is a horse I consider with a chance to post the upset in this year’s Whitney but others may agree, given the horse has never finished worse than third in 18 races, most importantly when a neck behind runner-up Crupi in last year’s Whitney at odds of 25 to 1. Post Time earned a 116 Figure in that effort, then proved he belongs in top company when second of 13 last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile with a 115 figure.
Fierceness has shown to be an accomplished equine athlete with five straight first or second place efforts in graded stakes. He began that streak a little over a year ago when winning the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga with a 108 Figure, finishing one length in front of Sierra Leone, before winning the Travers Stakes last August with a 111 figure and beating eventual Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna by a neck. Sierra Leone turned the tables on his foe when winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic by a length and one-half over Fierceness last November, with Fierceness holding form with a 114 figure. Making his four-year-old debut in May and following six months off, Fierceness won the Alysheba Stakes with a new career-best 117 figure. Shortening up to a mile for the Metropolitan Handicap last month, Fierceness could not pass wire-to-wire winner Raging Torrent. Stretching back out to this mile and one-eighth distance where he’s undefeated in two starts, Fierceness should be competitive once more.
One more horse I’ll mention is Skippylongstocking, who shows up nearly every time he runs and who has finished in the top three in nine of his last 12 races, including when winning the Hollywood Gold Cup with a 109 figure at the end of May. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was in the saddle for that race and is replaced by his brother Jose Ortiz for the Whitney, with Jose having guided Skippylongstocking to victory in the Charles Town Classic last August as well as when winning the Oaklawn Handicap last April, which earned the horse a 116 figure competitive with the top contenders in this field. The only question mark is surrounding the fact that in his last four tries at this Grade 1 stakes level, Skippylongstocking has finished third, fifth, sixth and third.
Handicapper Picks
Win: With about a 40% probability to win, Sierra Leone has fair odds/minimum odds of 3 to 2 for considering a win bet and still may be a low odds overlay at around those odds.
White Abarrio can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.
Post Time can be considered for a win bet at odds of 5 to 1 or more.
This is another race to use the “Dutching” tool at Amwager to prorate our win bets if we are betting two (or more) horses.
Exactas: (avoiding the lowest paying exacta of Sierra Leone over Fierceness)
Sierra Leone over White Abarrio, Post Time, Skippylongstocking (Play this for two units compared to the other exactas, for example $4 versus $2
Box Sierra Leone, White Abarrio, Post Time
White Abarrio, Post Time over Fierceness, Skippylongstocking
Fierceness over White Abarrio, Post Time, Skippylongstocking