Friday, 06 December 2019 12:09

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, December 7

Written by Ellis Starr

Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website.

Winter Memories Stakes - Race 2 at Aqueduct - Post Time 12 Noon Eastern

Tuned showed her cards as being something special in her U.S. debut in October at Keeneland when she rallied from eighth of 11, still seventh with a quarter mile to go, then easily drove past six horses to draw off late. She had been off for six months prior to that but was well regarded at 5 to 2 in a stakes in France in March after breaking her maiden at first asking in a 15 horse field last October. Castellano rode her in her win and rides back and she beat older in that race so although stepping up to stakes she moves to three year olds only here so it's not really a hike in class. The 100 Equibase figure earned is not only the best last race figure in the field but the best figure in the field, so with logical improvement second off the layoff she should be tough to deny here.

Feel Glorious appears to be the main contender, particularly as she won the identical Memories of Silver Stakes in April in her second U.S. start (after winning an allowance race in her stateside debut the same as Tuned). That win came on this course and although she hasn't won in five starts since she enters this race off her best race since the win, a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Sands Point under Alvarado, up for the first time that day and back again. With the rail this gal has a big shot to save ground and make a bold rally to be right there at the wire.

For exotics we'll also use Atomic Blonde and Sorrentina Lemon, the latter the 3/1 morning line favorite. Atomic Blonde has done little wrong in three starts with two wins and a second place effort but the first two were at Monmouth for Pletcher meaning she's a second string horse in his opinion. She shipped to Belmont for a first level allowance win on 10/5, a few days earlier than Tuned won at Keeneland, and ran well to earn a 94 figure and she too moves from three year olds and upward to straight three year olds. Sorrentina Lemon is two-for-two, winning in January then in September. She's had layoffs after each win so that's a slight concern, but it must be noted the horse she beat last out in that first level allowance (Nay Lady Nay) has won two stakes since including the Mrs. Revere Stakes last weekend at Churchill Downs. For smaller tickets we'll toss in Jubuticaba, Shelter Island, Tass and On the Town.

Bets:
Win Bets: Tuned to win at 9 to 5 or higher, a low odds overlay win bet.
Feel Glorious to win at 5 to 2 or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
Tuned and Feel Glorious over Tuned, Feel Glorious, Atomic Blonde and Sorrentina Lemon
Tuned and Feel Glorious over Tuned, Feel Glorious, Atomic Blonde, Sorrentina Lemon, Jubuticaba, Shelter Island, Tass and On the Town

Trifecta: Tuned and Feel Glorious over Tuned, Feel Glorious, Atomic Blonde and Sorrentina Lemon over ALL

Go For Wand Handicap - Race 6 at Aqueduct - Post Time 2:09 PM Eastern

I was going to skip this six horse race with a 3 to 5 favorite in Spiced Perfection but upon closer examination I found it to be a VERY playable race because the favorite has no edge over a couple of other contenders. Spiced Perfection has never run a one turn mile and the only time she ran a mile or more was 18 months ago when second in a Cal-Bred stakes race. She's a late running sprinter with talent, having won the Grade 1 Madison in the spring and the Grade 2 TCA Stakes in the fall, BUT she was off five months after a dismal effort at 7 to 2 with no excuse in the Humana Distaff at seven furlongs in May and she had no excuse (at least for not finishing second) when fourth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint behind Covfefe particularly as she was second at the eighth pole. I'll look elsewhere particularly as she's never run at Aqueduct and has been training at Churchill Downs.

Saguaro Row won her only start over the track, four weeks ago in the Pumpkin Pie Stakes at seven furlongs, rallying from last of seven to win by four easy lengths and not as the favorite. Rosario rides back and has been up for ALL three wins since she moved to the Stidham barn and the 104 Equibase figure earned last out is just one point shy of the best figure by any horse in the field.

That belongs to Another Broad, the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win in my opinion. She ran poorly in the Beldame (Grade 2) in September after two and one-half months off but rallied for second in the similar Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm Stakes over the track five weeks ago. The cut back from nine to eight furlongs doesn't hurt as she's won at the trip and she won the $200K Top Flight Invitational in April over the track so this race, even though at Grade 3, which carries at $250K purse, is the same in my opinion. Her last race 105 figure is faster than the best (100) figure heavy morning line favorite Spiced Perfection has earned, so she's a definite to play here as well.

Bets:
Win Bets: Saguaro Row and Another Broad to win at odds of 2/1

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Box Saguaro Row and Another Broad

Trifecta: Box Saguaro Row, Another Broad and Spiced Perfection.

Remsen Stakes - Race 9 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:43 PM Eastern

Forza Di Oro appears to be a stone cold runner for Mott, who is usually conservative except when he knows he's got a horse which can make the leap from maiden to stakes. With young horses, Mott is superb at this kind of judgment, using Country House (second in last year's Risen Star) and Hofburg (second in last year's Florida Derby) as just two examples. Forza Di Oro ran second to Ajaweed in his debut in September then improved considerably at 8 1/2 furlongs (one turn) last month at Belmont, earning an 86 Equibase figure bound to be improved upon in his third career start. He put in a strong workout on 11/27 prepping for the races and gest a good post to save ground just like he did from the rail last out. The only other foal of the dam, Silver Dust, is a multiple stakes winner (over $600K banked) and this colt found a fairly weak field but shouldn't be pounded at the windows, opening as the luke warm 3 to 1 favorite.

Informative and Amends interest me a lot more than lower odds horses like Ajaweed, who bombed with no excuse in the Breeders' Futurity off his maiden win and who hasn't been seen in two months, or like Chase Tracker, who won powerfully first out then had no excuse for finishing third in the Nashua, and who now adds blinkers. Alpha Sixty Six shows the same pattern, having broken his maiden in September but with a lackluster fifth in the Champagne after that, now taking blinkers off. The latter two are trained by Pletcher and when a top trainer is "trying" to change a horse's form in a stakes, I am very wary. On the other hand, Informative missed by a nose in the James F. Lewis Stakes at Laurel last month and earned the best last race figure in the field (97). He's going to be a big price here. Amends won as he pleased at the same trip at Belmont at Forza Di Oro won at, and with a decent 84 figure. For a horse with tremendous breeding to run farther (Uncle Mo out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare) and trained by McGaughey, I can't imagine why he (like Informative) opens at 12/1.

Bets:
Win Bets: Forza Di Oro at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Small win bets can be considered on Informative and on Amends at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
Box Forza Di Oro, Informative and Amends
Forza Di Oro over Informative and Amends.

Trifectas:
Forza Di Oro over Informative and Amends over ALL
Forza Di Oro over ALL over Informative and Amends

Doubles: Forza Di Oro in race 9 with Spun to Run in race 10 (personally, this will be a very large bet for me)

Forza Di Oro in race 9 with Spun to Run, Maximum Security, Pat On the Back, Network Effect, Looking at Bikinis and Tale of Silence in race 10.

ALL in race 9 with Spun to Run, Maximum Security, Pat On the Back, Network Effect, Looking at Bikinis and Tale of Silence in race 10.


Cigar Mile Stakes - Race 10 at Aqueduct - Post Time 4:16 PM Eastern

Spun to Run possesses a double advantage in the speed figure category, historically a very significant marker for success. Two races back in October, Spun to Run won the M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile Stakes powerfully by six and three-quarter lengths in hand and earned a career-best 119 Equibase Figure. Returning three weeks later, Spun to Run proved that effort to be no fluke when controlling the pace in front and easily winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile by two and three-quarter lengths, earning a similar 117 figure. The double advantage comes from the fact those two figures of 119 and 117 are higher than the last two figures of any other horse in the Cigar Mile field, because it would be very difficult for another horse to jump up to that level or for Spun to Run to regress significantly. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., who leads all jockeys in North America in earnings in 2019, takes the return engagement on Spun to Run after being in the saddle for the first time in the Dirt Mile. With two very strong workouts since the Breeders' Cup, Spun to Run is showing all signs of holding his top form and as the Cigar Mile is at the same distance of his last two wins, he will be very tough to beat in this race.

Pat On the Back and Maximum Security both warrant strong consideration as contenders as well, with Pat On the Back likely to be higher odds near post time. Pat On the Back has won nine of 26 dirt races in his career and perhaps more importantly has won the last two times he's raced at this one-turn mile trip. Pat On the Back won the Commentator Stakes in May with a 110 figure then after a layoff and sprint prep stretched out to the mile for the Kelso Handicap, winning with a 106 figure. Following the Kelso, Pat On the Back finished third at the distance of nine furlongs, also with a 106 figure, so the cut back to a mile may suit him nicely to run very competitively in the Cigar Mile.

Maximum Security needs no talking up, with six wins in eight races. One of the losses came in this year's Kentucky Derby when he crossed the finish line in front but was disqualified. Following a defeat as the prohibitive favorite in the Pegasus Stakes in June, Maximum Security nearly duplicated the 111 figure earned in the Derby with a 109 figure, then improved back to the 111 level winning the Bold Ruler Handicap at the end of October. Considering the Cigar Mile will be his second start following three months off, Maximum Security could run even better, but so too can Spun to Run. If both do improve as I expect they will, we could be watching a race to remember.

Network Effect and Looking at Bikinis are an uncoupled entry from the Brown barn, both three year olds facing older, thought the former just beat older on 11/10 following 11 months off. That was just an allowance race but the effort earned a 106 figure just a few points what I believe the top three are capable of. Network Effect finished second in the Remsen on this day last year in his third career start and won the comeback last month at this one turn mile trip so may be worth using on exotic tickets, as may Looking at Bikinis, who is three for three in one turn races. Tale of Silence finished okay from fifth to second behind Maximum Security in the Bold Ruler and might be good for a piece as well.

Bets:
Win Bets: Spun to Run to win at 9 to 5 or higher, a very solid low odds overlay win bet.
A smaller win bet on Pat On the Back at odds of 3/1 may be called for too.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
Spun to Run over Maximum Security and Pat On the Back

Spun to Run over Maximum Security, Pat On the Back, Network Effect, Looking at Bikinis and Tale of Silence

Spun to Run, Maximum Security and Pat On the Back over Spun to Run, Maximum Security, Pat On the Back, Network Effect, Looking at Bikinis and Tale of Silence

Trifecta:
Spun to Run over Maximum Security, Pat On the Back, Network Effect, Looking at Bikinis and Tale of Silence over Maximum Security, Pat On the Back, Network Effect, Looking at Bikinis and Tale of Silence