Key Races & Bets for Saturday, July 12th, 2025
Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:03 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Taraj, Then
Taraj is an exceptionally well-bred colt who cost more than $600,000 at auction in Europe last year. He won one of four races in Europe, finishing second or third in two others, excluding the 10th of 12 effort last June at Royal Ascot in which he likely had issues, necessitating him coming to run in the U.S. He’s been acclimating well for Mott and gets the barn’s leading jockey in Alvarado and his third place effort on grass in a group three stakes off a five month layoff last May (2024) tells me all I need to know about how well he can run in an allowance race here in which many have run at this NW1X level multiple times without winning. Mott and Alvarado won with a similar European import in February at 12 to 1, and ran second with another recently so it appears Taraj has enough class edge to run big in his U.S. debut.
Then started his career with Mott in the spring of 2024, finishing third and fourth, both in turf routes, then returned in December in the care of his current trainer, Phillip Antonacci, who doesn’t have a lot of horses in his care but does very well with those he has, with a record of 5 for 26 so far this year. Alvarado was up for all five of the horse’s races but rides Taraj for Mott and is replaced by Irad Ortiz, Jr, who has ridden for Antonacci just four times in the past couple of years, with two wins and one runner-up effort. When last seen, Then was finishing fast from 11th of 12 to get third on the wire under these conditions and with just slight improvement can run well enough to win, especially if Taraj doesn’t fire as expected.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Taraj should be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1, and Then should be considered at 3 to 1.
If both Taraj and Then have higher than the minimum odds listed, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exactas: Taraj and Then over ALL
Double and Pick 3:
Race 9: Taraj, Then
Race 10: Scotland, Illuminare
Race 11: Be Your Best, Lady Claypoole, She Feels Pretty
Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Scotland, Illuminare
Exacta contenders: Concrete Glory, General Partner, Little Ni, Twenty Four Mamba, Runninsonofagun
This is a seven-furlong classified allowance race with a low level stakes purse of $120,000 and many of these have run in stakes. Scotland gets slight preference as he won an IDENTICAL race last July (26) at the level here at Saratoga, Alvarado in the saddle then as now. He followed that up with a big second in the Vosburgh, then ran poorly but rebounded to win the $250K Cherokee Mile Stakes at Churchill downs in December. That was a one-turn mile race similar to this seven-furlong trip and Alvarado was aboard as well. Scotland is two for three at Saratoga and only worse than second once in five races at this trip and should fire a big shot fresh, as well as gets some pace to set up his late kick.
Illuminare is three for five in his career, and three for three when not running in stakes. He won fresh 13 months ago in his debut at Saratoga at this distance then followed that up one month later with another strong win at the trip. Two later when at the next allowance level he also won impressively. He’s fired to win fresh, has been working well, and is three-for-three in maiden or allowance races so fits perfectly here.
As to the five above listed as exacta contenders, they are all good sprinters who can run well, particularly Concrete Glory, who has enough early speed to clear the field. He’s won 15 races with his last win coming in January at this trip with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle as today.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Scotland and Illuminare should both be considered for win bets at 9 to 5 or greater.
If both Scotland and Illuminare are above 9 to 5, consider Dutching the bet using the free and easy tool at Amwager to do so.
Exacta: Scotland and Illuminare over Scotland, Illuminare, Concrete Glory General Partner, Little Ni, Twenty Four Mamba, Runninsonofagun
I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to also play the reverse of the exacta above, putting Scotland and Illuminare in second, and if they ran one-two we’d hit both bets.
Double:
Race 10: Scotland, Illuminare
Race 11: Be Your Best, Lady Claypoole, She Feels Pretty
Diana Stakes - Race 11 at Saratoga - Post Time 6:14 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Be Your Best, Lady Claypoole, She Feels Pretty
Although all six horses entered can win in this exceptional group, Be Your Best gets slight preference. Be Your Best is one of two millionairesses in the field, having earned $1.08 million to date while winning six of 20 races, all on turf. She Feels Pretty leads the field with $1.784 million earned while winning seven of 10 races, also all on grass. The rest of the field also have rock solid records, with 18 wins in 55 races and an average of $533,000 earned on grass.
Despite all that talent, Be Your Best appears to have as much probability of winning as She Feels Pretty but is very likely to go into the gate at higher odds and so she gets my top billing. Although showing losses in her last two races on the Saratoga turf course, Be Your Best won both the first and second starts of her career on the grass at Saratoga, including the P.G. Johnson Stakes in the summer of 2022. She didn’t win again until last November, two races after moving to the barn of Saffie Joseph, Jr. After winning the Long Island Stakes and Suwanee River Stakes in succession with 107 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures, respectively, Be Your Best won the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes this past January with a new career-best 108 figure.
Following three months off, Be Your Best ran poorly in the Jenny Wiley Stakes in April but then the mare rebounded in a big way when leading from start to finish in the Gamely Stakes at the same mile and one-eighth distance of the Diana, earning a new career-best 110 figure. Irad Ortiz, Jr., was aboard for the Gamely and rides back in this race. As no other horse in the field has shown any interest in being in front in the early stages of a race, the same tactics which led to victory in the Gamely will likely be used in this race, making it at least a bit difficult for any of the other five horses, all with strong late kicks, to go by Be Your Best in the late stages.
Lady Claypool is very likely to go into the gate at the highest odds in the group, and if things go her way she could rally into second for a nice exacta payoff and possibly post the upset win just as she did two races back when winning the Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes at odds of 11 to 1. The Santa Ana was her third straight winning effort, then two months later in the Gamely, Be Your Best coasted along on an uncontested lead while Lady Claypool sat sixth of seven for the first three quarters of a mile. Although accelerating exceptionally well in the final stages, making up three lengths on the leader and running the last eighth of a mile in 11.4 seconds, Lady Claypool had to settle for second, but earned a career-best 105 figure in the process. Trainer Richard Baltas is based in California and doesn’t ship his horses to run to New York that often but did so last month when winning the Jaipur Stakes with A G Bullet and wouldn’t be doing so here if he didn’t think Lady Claypool has a strong shot to earn at least a share of the half-million-dollar purse.
She Feels Pretty has won seven of 10, including the New York Stakes last month under John Velazquez, who has been in the saddle for six of the filly’s seven wins including her last four in graded stakes. This year, She Feels Pretty won the Modesty Stakes in May following four months off, before the New York, so she is likely to run as well, or better, in her third start off a layoff. She Feels Pretty earned 110 and 111 figures in those two races, and earned a career-best 113 figure winning the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last October before a 110 figure effort in her final start of 2024 when winning the American Oaks last December. Although those four efforts, and figures, are top rate, they are not superior in any way to the 110 figure Be Your Best earned in the Gamely, or the 109 figures Choisya and Excellent Truth earned when first and second, respectively, in the Jenny Wiley. She Feels Pretty can run the last eighth of a mile in 11.6 seconds, which is about the same as the 11.4 second final eighth Lady Claypool ran in the Gamely. As such, She Feels Pretty has every right to win, but is no standout.
The other three horses here all have strong merits as well and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who felt they had legitimate chances to win. Choisya fits at this level by virtue of winning the Jenny Wiley Stakes in April with a 109 figure. Although she ran poorly when seventh in the Just a Game, her recent four-furlong workout in 46.6 seconds on the Saratoga turf course, the third best of 67 on the day, could signal a return to top form. Excellent Truth and Dynamic Pricing are both trained by Chad Brown, who has won the Diana the last three years in a row and in five of six years prior to that. Excellent Truth could not out-finish Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game last month (with a 106 figure) and prior to that had traffic trouble when beaten a half-length by Choisya in the Jenny Wiley (with a 109 figure) so perhaps with a bit of luck could turn the tables on those two. Dynamic Pricing returned from seven months off to win the Beaugay Stakes in May with a 93 figure then really improved to 107 in the Just a Game. She’s a four-year-old, the same as She Feels Pretty, so could easily take another step forward in her speed figure in the Diana.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Be Your Best should be considered for a win bet at odds of 8 to 5 or more.
Lady Claypoole can be considered for a win bet at 6 to 1 or more.
Considering Lady Claypoole is likely to go to post at much higher odds than Be Your Best, and considering we would want to bet less on her to win than on Be Your Best, we do not have to do the math ourselves to figure out how much to wager on each as the Dutching tool at Amwager prorates our wagers for us to get the best edge possible.
Exactas:
Box Be Your Best, She Feels Pretty
Box Be Your Best, She Feels Pretty, Lady Claypoole