Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 14th, 2025
Delaware Derby - Race 8 at Delaware Park - Post Time 4:19 PM Eastern
Win contender: Academy
There are 11 entered in this decent race for three year olds with a $200K purse but note that three of them (Barbadian Runner, National Law and Kentucky Outlaw) are also entered in the similar Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth today, and Late Nite Call (a filly) is also entered in the Delaware Oaks (race 9).
Be that as it may, Academy is a standout on paper, even though he’s only run four times, once on dirt, and just broke his maiden. That last race was his first on dirt and he stayed in the race which was originally scheduled for turf, and dominated to draw off by four and one-half lengths after stalking the pacesetter in second for the opening half-mile. Trainer Graham Motion must be very happy he let the horse run last out because the 103 Equibase Speed Figure is by far the best (fastest) figure earned by any horse in the race and it should be improved upon off the experience of that previous dirt race. Irad Ortiz, Jr. is assigned to ride and that is a BIG sign of how well regarded Academy is.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Academy should be considered for a win bet at odds as low as 3 to 2.
Doubles:
Race 8: Academy
Race 9: Margie’s Intention, Paris Lily, Cassiar
Delaware Oaks - Race 9 at Delaware Park - Post Time 4:51 PM Eastern
Win contenders in preference order: Cassiar, Margie’s Intention, Paris Lily
Cassiar is likely to go to post at the highest odds of the three win contenders as she just won an allowance race whereas the other two finished first and second in the Black Eyed Susan Stakes on Preakness weekend. Cassiar did compete in a stakes race, the Gulfstream Park Oaks, in March, in only the second start of her career, first route, finishing third but never a threat to win. She dropped to the first allowance level on May 1 at Aqueduct and won with a very mature off the pace rally from third, improving to a career-best 85 Equibase Speed Figure. Although Margie’s Intention and Paris Lily earned 93 and 92 figures when finishing first and second, respectively, in the Black Eyed Susan, because Cassiar has three career starts compared to six for those other two, she has the upside to get to that level. Cassiar is out of the champion mare (Nellie Cashman) who produced Bendoog ($867K, second in the Suburban), who was second to Bishop’s Bay (who runs in the Salvator Mile today as the heavy favorite) in the American Pharoah Stakes this year, so there’s no doubt Cassiar can win at this mile and one-sixteenth trip.
Margie’s Intention and Paris Lily have no real knocks. Margie’s Intention won the Black Eyed Susan as the 5 to 2 favorite, with Paris Lily having gone to post at 5 to 1 and leading from the start until about one-sixteenth of a mile to run. Both fillies are holding their top form, with Paris Lily having earned 91 and 92 figures in her last two while Margie’s Intention has earned 93 figures in her last two. Paris Lily may try to go for the lead but Complexity Jane, who is drawn inside, and Late Night Call, are the two likely to battle early for the front, and Paris Lily has closed well from off the pace, so there is no concern she can run well.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Minimum odds for considering a win bet on the three contenders (Cassiar, Margie’s Intention, Paris Lily) are 5 to 2 and the best thing to do is bet the two at the highest odds of the three.
When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exacta: Box Cassiar, Margie’s Intention, Paris Lily
Salvator Mile Stakes - Race 10 at Monmouth - Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern
Top Win contender in preference order: Offaly Cool, Bishops Bay, Vitality
Early pace scenario:
As with most races, the way this race is likely to be run in the early stages is key to who should be in the top positions at the end. Tuscan Sky earned his best win, last year on this day in the Pegasus Stakes, leading from start to finish to earn a career best 106 Equibase Speed Figure, but he’s been unable to show that kind of early speed since then, mostly because there have been other horses are faster and more intent on having the early lead. For example, in his most recent race on May 3, the Fort Marcy Stakes, Deterministic was bent on having the lead from the start and led from start to finish. In this field Nelson Avenue is likely to play the role of early leader as he goes from one turn to two turns and has led early in both of those last two races. With it being likely Tuscan Sky and Nelson Avenue could battle for the early lead on faster than average fractions and be susceptible to being passed in the late stages, Offaly Cool, Bishops Bay and Vitality are the three horses mostly likely to take advantage and are the top contenders to win.
Top Contenders:
In addition to that pace battle, Bishops Bay may be up close, having been no farther back than third after a half-mile in any of his nine career starts. With the above pace scenario in mind, Offaly Cool gets top billing because he has the best chance to race in fourth or fifth early and close strongly. That’s just what he did in his most recent race on May 27 where, under jockey Abner Adorno Offaly Cool moved from fourth to take the lead in the stretch and edged away late, earning a very strong Equibase Speed Figure which is the second best last race figure in the field behind the 111 figure Bishops Bay earned in his most recent race. That was not the highest figure Offaly Cool has earned because among his seven career wins in 16 main track races, he earned a career-best 113 figure winning a two-turn race in the fall of 2023. Offaly Cool is very consistent, as he’s finished second six times in 18 races as well. Considering the way the race shapes up, and with jockey Adorno aboard as he’s been for the horse’s last two wins, Offaly Cool looks to be a very strong contender in this year’s Salvator Mile Stakes.
Bishops Bay likes to win, with six victories in nine career starts. He finished second in the other three so has never been out of the exacta in his career which began in the winter of 2023. In his third career start, Bishops Bay missed by a head to Arcangelo, who won the Belmont Stakes the following month. After being away from the races for 17 months until November of last year, Bishops Bay returned in top form to win three of his first four races, including the American Pharoah Stakes in March of this year. That was the fourth straight race in which Bishops Bay had earned a 108 figure, which he bettered to 111 last month when winning the Westchester Stakes. That was a one turn race, so returning to two turns we might expect another top effort with a 108 figure, which when compared to the 109 figure Offaly Cool earned last month and the 110 and 113 best two-turn figures Offaly Cool has earned, suggests these two horses will put on a show in this race as they battle down to the wire. The only concern regarding Bishops Bay is that he drew the rail for his last two races and gets the outside nine post position for this race, meaning it is likely he will be in third position early behind likely leaders Tuscan Sky and Nelson Avenue. Bishops Bay was in this position once previously, last November, racing in third for the first half mile before drawing off to win.
Vitality closed from last of six to win his most recent race on May 11, earning a 100 figure which is pretty far below the likely figures the top two contenders have earned, but one which can be improved upon as Vitality is making his second start following nearly five months off. Last September, Vitality won the Prince of Wales Stakes which was his first ever race on conventional dirt. Staying on dirt, Vitality earned 100 and 101 figures last fall before a sixth-place effort, which led to the layoff he returned from last month in fine fashion. Being a four-year-old, Vitality likely can improve and it must be noted the win last month came in the horse’s first start for Joe Orseno, so there are more reasons to expect Vitality to be competitive in this field.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Offaly Cool and Bishops Bay can be considered for win bets at 2 to 1, but it is likely only Offaly Cool will meet that threshold. Vitality can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.
If both Offaly Cool and Vitality are above fair odds, this is where the free “Dutching” tool at Amwager comes in handy, because the automatic calculation will ensure a fair profit when betting both to win.
Exactas:
Box Offaly Cool, Bishops Bay
Box Offaly Cool, Bishops Bay, Vitality
Daytona Stakes - Race 10 at Santa Anita - Post Time 8 PM Eastern (5 Pacific)
Top Win contender in preference order: Motorious, Bran, Air Force Red
The downhill turf course at Santa Anita is unique and horses who have proven over the course should often get preference. This being a grade 3 stakes race, horses with positive experience at the level, or higher, also get weighted more highly, and if those top efforts in races representative of today’s level also occurred down the hill, even better.
Motorious has won three of four downhill turf races, including the higher level Grade 2 Joe Hernandez Stakes when last seen on December 28. He won the Green Flash Handicap in September, 2023, following four months off and he gets the furthest outside post of the three win contenders, which is fine as well. Fresu has been up for his last three races, consisting of two wins and a neck defeat, that coming last November in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint where he was 12 to 1. He will likely be favored but is the one to beat as his Hernandez effort earned a 112 Equibase Speed Figure and he earned a 113 figure at the trip winning the Grade 3 San Simion Stakes in March 2023.
Bran returned from a lengthy 10 months layoff three weeks ago and ran huge to lead from the start, just beaten near the wire. He was “fresh” off the layoff and led from the start but is more likely to return to the tactics shown for his last two wins, particularly when rallying from seventh to win the Grade 2 Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs a couple of years back, or more recently when rallying from fifth to second in the Grade 2 Eddie D. Stakes. Bran has also won down the hillside course, winning the 2022 edition of the Daytona. Rispoli has been up just twice, on both sides of the July to May layoff, and rides back, and when nearly winning the Eddie D Stakes, Bran earned a 113 figure which, if repeated, puts him on the finish with the other two top contenders.
Air Force Red was a half length behind Bran in the Siren Lure and he too should love the return to the downhill course, where he won the San Simeon Stakes just prior to that with a 113 figure. He’s won FOUR times in nine races down the hill, and Ayuso, who has up for the San Simeon win as well as the third place effort last month, rides back. The rail might normally be an issue for this trip but not for Air Force Red, who won with a 108 figure earlier in his career from this post position.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Being as all three contenders are equally matched, I think 2 to 1 odds are fair, and so will bet one or two at the highest odds above that threshold.
Exactas: Box Motorious, Bran, Air Force Red