Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 28th, 2025
Tale of the Cat Stakes - Race 8 at Monmouth - Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern
Win contender: Tom’s Magic
Tom’s Magic appears to be the one to beat, by far, in this field, especially drawing the rail because he led from just after the start on December 22 of last year from the three post when breaking his maiden in a turf route in the second start of his career and he won from just off the pace in March when winning the nearly identical Black Gold Stakes from the two post. Getting the eight post in the Transylvania Stakes in April, he was wide throughout and ran out of gas after moving up too early, a race which can be ignored insofar as his effort is concerned, BUT a race which has turned out to be a KEY RACE because the eighth finisher won a stakes at Belmont, the fourth finisher won a stakes at Pimlico and the winner finished second in the Grade 1 American Stakes on Derby weekend. The 95 Equibase Speed Figure from his win in the Black Gold trounces these if repeated.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Tom’s Magic should be considered for a win bet at odds as low as 9 to 5.
Exactas:
Tom’s Magic over Golden Channel, Uncatalyzed, Soleil Volant
Highlander Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:06 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Playmeatune
Other win contenders: Patches O’Houlihan, My Boy Prince, Ms. Tart
There are some GREAT Stakes races at Woodbine and this is one of them, a Grade 2 Stakes with a nice field and a very probable overlay in Playmeatune, who opens at 9 to 2 odds that should be about 2 to 1 in my opinion. Playmeatune has run seven times but ONLY five races count when assessing his chances today. We ignore his one try on conventional dirt last December and his one try around two turns, so we’re left with a record of four wins and one runner-up finish in five races, including a win and a neck defeat in stakes. Last seen winning the Forego Stakes in February, Playmeatune put in a very strong second best of 52 workout at five furlongs last week for the red hot Carroll barn (10 for 39 at the meet, 26%). The 109, 103 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures from his last three similar races are all top notch and he has the right style to layoff off the heels of early leaders Patches O’ Houlihan and Its Time to Shine, perhaps Old Chestnut, Niagara Skyline and My Boy Prince as well, and get up to win.
Patches O’Houlihan opens at 6 to 5 because he’s won 12 of 15, BUT 10 of those came on all-weather and although he’s two for three on turf, he’s not a standout on grass as he would be on all-weather. He won the identical Nearctic Stakes last October before getting nailed in the Kennedy Road in the late stages to end his 2024 campaign. He won his comeback when leading from start to finish but there are at least three, possibly four, other horses, in this race with early speed who may take away his edge by pressing him. Nevertheless, the 107 figure he earned in the Nearctic is good enough to win if repeated, but not a standout figure by any means, and at such low odds I’ll use him on exacta and trifecta tickets but couldn’t possibly bet him to win.
My Boy Prince drops in class after a bang-up second in the Grade 1 Jaipur three weeks ago in New York. He won a non-graded stakes at this six-furlong grass trip before that, after stalking in second for the first quarter mile then taking over, and he’s won from as far back as third in the early stages. His best efforts earned 105 to 107 figures which are on par with the other top contenders as well. However, from the rail My Boy Prince may be forced to use early speed, and if he hooks up with Patches O’Houlihan in the early stages he could be vulnerable to being passed late. Just the same, the fact he’s finished first or second in 11 of 16 races suggests he must be used on exacta and trifecta tickets as well, because his opening odds of 5 to 2 are also too low for considering a win bet.
Ms. Tart is also entered in the Nassau Stakes (race 10) at one mile, but if she runs here she should be respected as she gets a little break in the weight as a filly against males, and as she opens at 20 to 1. She won the Grade 3 Royal North Stakes at a similar distance on this grass course on May 31 at odds of 70 to 1 and she won two of three prior to that. She shipped back down to trainer Rice’s base in Pennsylvania after the win and ships back up and there is no reason to think the 105 figure earned in that last race isn’t legitimate.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Playmeatune can be bet at odds of 9 to 5 or more and appears to be a strong low odds overlay.
I might consider a small win bet on Ms. Tart if she runs considering her 20 to 1 starting odds.
Exacta:
Playmeatune over Patches O’Houlihan, My Boy Prince, Ms. Tart
Box Playmeatune, Patches O’Houlihan
Box Playmeatune, My Boy Prince
Box Playmeatune, Ms. Tart
Nassau Stakes - Race 10 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:11 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Sweet Rebecca
Other win contenders: Crevalle d’Oro / Ready to Jam (uncoupled entry), Ms. Tart, Caitlinhergrtness
Sweet Rebecca ships from Chad Brown’s New York based to Woodbine in spite of the fact there will be multiple opportunities for the filly to run in stakes at Saratoga, which is big sign of intent by one of North America’s top trainers. Dylan Davis takes off an entire day in New York to accompany the filly, who won a stakes race last April (2024) in only the second start of her career. Rested from July to April of this year, Sweet Rebecca returned to win at a mile without a prep as if she had never been away, opening up by a length and one-half and holding on by a neck. She’s going to be much stronger in her second start off the layoff and should win again.
Top trainer Mark Casse has a pair in this race in Crevalle d’Oro and Ready to Jam, who because they open at odds of 15 to 1 and 20 to 1, respectively, CANNOT be ignored. Crevalle d’Oro has finished first or second in half of her 12 turf races, including the Grade 3 Selene Stakes last June around two turns but on all-weather. She won a one-turn turf race before that and these one mile races on the E.P. Taylor course at Woodbine are also one-turn races. She won at one mile on the inner turf around two turns when last seen in May, and with Husbands aboard as today. Husbands has been in the saddle on this filly three times, accounting for two wins and one second, which are more reasons to think she can complete the exacta or possibly post the upset win. Ready to Jam nearly won the Royal North Stakes four weeks ago, at 12 to 1, making the lead with an eighth of a mile to go and beaten a half-length on the wire. She had returned from seven months off prior to that and finished third and should improve again in her third start off the layoff. Her 104 last race Equibase Speed Figure is rock solid as well and as stated previously the sprint she ran in over this course last month was one turn, the same as this mile distance.
Ms. Tart won the Royal North at 70 to 1 and as mentioned in the analysis of the Highlander is also entered in that race against Males. If she opts for this race she also has a big shot as the 105 figure earned in the Royal North appears to be legitimate. She has won three of five since Rice claimed her in January and, just as before the Royal North, Ms. Tart ships up from Pennsylvania, with a rock solid half-mile drill to show she’s still in excellent form.
Caitlinhergrtness starts as the 2 to 1 favorite and that is the reason so many of the others may be overlays, because in spite of her four for 12 record and the fact she just won the Grade 3 Belle Mahone Stakes four weeks ago, she is no standout here. She won an allowance race on the inner turf at Woodbine last summer and finished third in the Grade 1 QE II Stakes at Keeneland last fall in her only other try on grass. The 104 figure she earned in that race was equaled when winning the Belle Mahone, but it is no better than the 105 and 104 figures Ms. Tart and Ready to Jam earned on the same day in the Royal North. She can win, but doesn’t have to.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Sweet Rebecca should be considered for a win bet at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Crevalle d’Oro, Ready to Jam and Ms. Tart should be considered for win bets at 4 to 1 or more.
This is a race in which we are likely to bet more than one horse to win, and we should, considering Caitlinhergrtness is no standout. That best way to do this is to use a “dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers for the best mathematical edge. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager, where all you have to do is enter the total amount you want to bet to win and then select two or three horses and all the math is done for you. That’s just one of many nice tools and perks for racing fans at Amwager.com
Exacta:
Sweet Rebecca over Crevalle d’Oro, Ready to Jam, Ms. Tart, Caitlinhergrtness
Crevalle d’Oro, Ready to Jam, Ms. Tart, Caitlinhergrtness over Sweet Rebecca
Box Sweet Rebecca, Crevalle d’Oro, Ready to Jam, Ms. Tart
Box Crevalle d’Oro, Ready to Jam, Ms. Tart, Caitlinhergrtness
We are avoiding the exacta box between Sweet Rebecca and Caitlinhergrtness as that is the lowest paying combination.