The Honey Ryder – Race 6 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:15 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Barakah, Classic Move, Laigina
Barakah was entered in her first career race on March 28, but the race moved to the all-weather track, which was no problem as she rallied from sixth to win. She won with maturity, like a horse that had raced before. She earned an 88 Equibase Speed Figure, the second-best last-race figure in this field. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has won 27 of 132 (20%) in the last few years. Barakah should improve on the grass, where her pedigree is excellent.
Classic Move also won her last race off the turf. That was her third career start, in which she used different tactics, stalking in third at the quarter, leading at the half pole, and winning comfortably. In her second race back, she led from start to finish but tired to fourth, so the recent race tactics worked. She earned the top figure of 91 and is one of the main contenders for the win.
Laigina has won one, finished second in one, and finished third in five turf races. She has run in stakes in three turf races, finishing second, third, and fourth. Her best performance came in the Ginger Brew Stakes in January when she finished second and earned a 90 figure. She then won at this distance, by four lengths and earning an 86 figure. In her last race, she led from the start but failed to finish third. She earned an 88, so she has a shot to be in contention.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Barakah at 2 to 1 or higher.
Classic Move at 2 to 1 or higher.
Laigina at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
The English Stakes – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:28 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Zephyros
There is likely to be a fast pace in this race, as Redland Rebels has led at the first quarter and half-mile in all four of his two-turn races. However, two other horses, Bolero Bay and Vekomasan, are likely to battle for the lead. Vekomasan draws the outside post and will use his speed to avoid going wide on the first turn.
All three of those factors really help Zephyros. This colt finished fifth in his career debut, a sprint on turf. In his second start, his first route, he led at the half-mile but faded to third. In his third race, his latest, he stalked in third early, moved at the three-eighth pole, and won by a length and a half. Jockey Camacho rode him in his first win and is riding him again, so he should improve again with all the early speed behind Zephyros.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Zephyros at 9 to 5 or higher.
Charles Whittingham Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Park – Post Time 7 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Mondego
For exactas: Hiding in Honduras, Flashiest, Gold Phoenix
Mondego cuts back from a mile and a half to a mile and a quarter. His last race was the San Luis Rey Stakes at a mile and a half, where he rallied from fifth after a mile to be second at the one and a quarter mark of the longer race, but he lacked the kick and finished third. His second race back was the San Marcos at a mile and a quarter, where he was fourth for the entire race before rallying to win. That earned him a career-best Equibase Speed Figure, 113, the same as Hiding Honduras (who hasn’t raced this distance). Jockey Jaramillo rode Mondego for the first time when he won the San Marcos, and if the colt runs the same race he ran in February, he should win.
Hiding in Honduras won three of five races, earning a 113 figure on February 8. He shuffled at the start of his April 3 race and lacked his usual kick. He won the Grade 2 Mathis Mile Stakes in December, so he fits in class, is rebounding, and likes the mile-and-a-quarter distance. He could be first or second.
Flashiest finished second four times in recent races. One of those came in the San Marcos, where he was a head behind at the eighth pole but was finished by Mondego. In his last race, he led at the eighth pole at the San Luis Rey but was beaten by Gold Phoenix. His latest races earned competitive 112 and 115 figures, so he could at least be part of the exacta.
Gold Phoenix won three stakes races in five starts. He won the longer San Luis Rey, where he earned a strong 116 figure, and he won two stakes last summer and fall, including this distance in the John Henry Turf Championship Stakes. He put in three consecutive five-furlong workouts, so he is fit. However, he also entered the Turf Classic Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Mondego at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Exacta: Mondego over Hiding in Honduras, Flashiest, Gold Phoenix
I might play this exacta also: Hiding in Honduras over Mondego, Flashiest, Gold Phoenix.
Kentucky Derby – Race 12 at Churchill Downs – Post Time 6:57 PM Eastern
Note: AmWager does not carry Churchill Downs managed content, including the Kentucky Derby.
The top two horses are: Further Ado and Renegade.
Other horses with less probability to win and to finish first and third, The Puma, Commandment, Danon Bourbon, and So Happy
Three horses have a shot to finish second and third – Silent Tactic, Fulleffort, Potente.
Further Ado is on an improvement pattern, and I think he is the most likely to win this year’s Derby. He is making his third start of the year, having been away from November 29 to March 7. When Further Ado came into his first race of the year, the Tampa Derby on March 7, he may not have been 100% fit, but he battled head-and-head with four horses from the last quarter pole to the eighth pole, finishing beaten by three-quarters of a length. In the Blue Grass in his of the year, Further Ado made a “statement” by powering to win the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4 by 11 lengths. He earned a career-best 107 figure, tied with Renegade.
Although still a maiden, Renegade made his three-year-old debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 7, where he repeated the same rally, moving from sixth at the quarter pole, leading at the eighth pole, and powering to a win by just over four lengths. That earned Renegade a career-best 100 figure. In the Arkansas Derby on March 28, he made a big rally from seventh at the quarter mile while four-wide, getting third, half a length from the lead, and won powerfully by four lengths. He earned a new career-best 107 figure, the same as Further Ado. Irad Ortiz Jr., who has ridden both horses, chose Renegade.
Commandment and The Puma were a nose apart in the Florida Derby. They both ran hard for their wins, unlike Further Ado and Renegade, who won easily. Commandment’s recent Equibase Speed Figures were 97, 99, and 93. The Puma’s recent figures were 97, 95, and 90. It appears both horses need to improve to run as fast as either Further Ado or Renegade.
Danon Bourbon is the son of Maxfield, was bred in Kentucky, and has won all three of his races in Japan. All three races were two-turn races, and he won by big margins. His figures are 108, 105, and 103, as good as Further Ado and Renegade. In his race on March 28, Danon Bourbon was three paths at the quarter pole and won easily.
So Happy won the Santa Anita Derby by nearly three lengths and earned a 100 figure. Some people think his pedigree may be a problem at one mile and one-quarter. His sire, Runhappy, was a sprinter, and most of his progeny haven’t run this far. However, he has had horses run this distance, and the damsire is from Blame, who himself won top stakes at one mile and a quarter.
Silent Tactic is going to be a long shot, although he has never finished worse than second in five races. In the Arkansas Derby, he was no match for Renegade, yet he still earned a 101. Historically, horses that have finished second in their recent preps have much higher odds than they should, because there are so many good horses.
Fulleffort has won or finished second in five consecutive races. He won the Jeff Ruby Stakes on March 28, moving powerfully from ninth early to clear easily, earning a 99 figure. All of his races have been on turf or all-weather. The 2011 Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, had also never run on dirt and won the Jeff Ruby.
Potente, who finished behind So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby, has a chance to finish second or third. Although he led from the start in that race, he stalked in fifth when he won the San Felipe Stakes before the Santa Anita Derby.