I’m not sure how we can have a better result than last week but we’ll give it a shot just the same.
The Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream Park brings together a competitive group of older horses and at least one upward-moving type, but this year’s edition feels less about proven résumé lines and more about who still has upside — and that’s where I land.
I’m looking squarely at the lightly raced three-year-old Poster, who makes plenty of sense in this spot and may be the one still on the way up while others are largely known quantities.
Poster is second off the layoff, often a key move-forward scenario, and perhaps more importantly he gets back to the dirt, where I think two excellent races have come. His dirt efforts stack up just fine against this group and suggest there’s more in the tank as he gains experience and fitness. This feels like a horse still learning, still developing, and still capable of improving when it matters. He has gone forward both times he was second off the layoff before.
The main concern — and it’s a legitimate one — is distance and pace. This race is contested at a mile and a sixteenth, while I’d much prefer to see Poster at a mile and an eighth with a bit more honest early tempo in front of him. He’s the type who figures to do his best work when the race stretches out and the pace helps soften things up.
That said, I’m willing to side with trajectory over comfort. Poster looks like a horse who is going forward, not backward, and when that’s the case, I’m inclined to lean in rather than overthink it. If he continues along that forward-moving pattern and the race doesn’t crawl early, he has the upside edge over this field.
It’s not a slam dunk, but few stake races are. For me, Poster is the horse I want — a developing three-year-old with room to grow, getting back to what just may prove to be his preferred surface, and sitting on a race that could be better than it looks on paper.
That’s where I land in the Harlan’s Holiday.