The Travers, Is it a One-Horse Race?

Magnitude (2-1, rail) – Speed from the rail; returning from injury with an Iowa Derby win.

Bracket Buster (20-1) Some pace but overmatched.

Strategic Focus (6-1) – Chad Brown’s late-developing colt, now with blinkers.

Sovereignty (2-5) – Dominant Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner, plus Jim Dandy victor.

McAfee (20-1) Maybe picks up some pieces and a big check.

Sovereignty is the standout—having already captured the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. He followed that with a gritty win in the Jim Dandy, despite a closer than usual trip, finishing in a sharp 1:49.52 over 1⅛ miles. While being the prep winner boosts his credentials, historically that doesn’t guarantee Travers success as only 13 Jim Dandy victors have also won the Travers. Recent exceptions include Essential Quality (2021), Epicenter (2022), and Fierceness (2024).

If Sovereignty falls just shy of flawless this time with say a miscue at the start or some fatigue from his demanding 2025 schedule that could make things interesting. He also comes off a career best on Thorograph and that can lead to the dreaded bounce or regression. I never like betting a horse who I believe may regress or bounce even if they can bounce and win. Sovereignty does have the numbers to bounce and still take The Travers.

From the inside post, Magnitude brings early speed. He bounced back from a layoff (ankle chip) with a dominant Iowa Derby performance and seems to be rounding into form. Speed from the rail doesn’t always translate to enough stamina or late kick, especially against a field with strong closers like Sovereignty and Strategic Focus. I think early efforts to try and clear this field will leave him vulnerable late.

Chad Brown’s Strategic Focus is still lightly raced and has shown steady improvement. After breaking his maiden at Aqueduct and then posting a less-than clean allowance win (disqualified), he took a big step forward in the restricted Curlin Stakes, although beaten. That was his introduction to the big leagues. Blinkers were added thereafter and encouraged connections with his recent work at Saratoga. This colt may be peaking at the right time, and as a lightly raced three-year-old, he’s still ascending. If Sovereignty doesn’t fire or regresses Strategic Focus could be a nice alternative at 6-1, especially if Magnitude who is getting his share of hype takes more money than I think he deserves.

Strategic Focus made the winning move in the Curlin but couldn’t close the deal. Chad forges ahead adding those blinkers and I doubt he is running for just a check. I’ll go for the upset at the Graveyard of Champions. I hear there have been some upsets at Saratoga before.