What If You Like The ChalkWritten by Jon Stettin
The Belmont Stakes is here. It’s been a crazy year so far, and we are only halfway through it. The 2020 Belmont is being run as the first race in the Triple Crown, at an abbreviated distance of a mile and an eighth. The race also has a short-priced favorite who is highly likely to win.
If you’re betting against Tiz the Law, and for the record I’m undecided, you have no problem. You’ll back into value no matter how you play it as long as you’re right. If you like him, however, enough to bet him, then how you play things will be far more important as far as getting value is concerned.
Tiz the Law is probably going to go off in the area of 3-5. That’s real short for a 10 horse Grade 1. He looks faster and at least to date classier than any of his rivals. Three year olds do improve in leaps and bounds this time of year, so I am not ready to call him a lock. I do see a highly likely winner, at a short number.
Most players or at least many players simply won’t play a horse this short, and will stab if they have to trying to beat it. That’s just preference, but I always say there is NO value in a losing bet.
If you like Tiz the Law, you’ll have to make him a single in any multi-race wagers you make. If you don’t, you are putting yourself in a bad position to make any money if he wins. I’d go so far as to say you will need at least one other single to go along with him. Two would be better, but you need at least one more. You will have to bring you’re a game to the sequence and not be afraid to back your opinion.
Hopefully, the multiple singles will afford you the opportunity to play the ticket for more than any 50 cent or $1 minimum. There is a $1 two day pick 5 anchored by the Belmont.
As far as the race itself, you are going to have to take a stand there also. Forget boxing, wheeling, part wheeling, or using multiple horses in different slots. If you’re backing Tiz the Law, this won’t be the day for betting that way. In my opinion, it rarely is, but you give yourself no shot betting that way in this case.
You need to find the horse you think runs second. It is as important to you as finding the winner. One horse in the second slot, just one and you can’t reverse or put him anywhere but second. That’s right, a true and proper ice-cold exacta. Tiz the Law over who you think runs second. That’s it. You can’t be afraid to be wrong or lose. Just back your opinion. You’ll be doing it with a heavy favorite on top, so you should feel pretty confident. I bet this way with 20-1’s on top, so I wholeheartedly believe in it. With 3-5 on top, I think you have no choice.
The triple and super should have the same ice-cold 1-2 first and second slot horses. Tiz the Law over your second horse with a few third, and a few fourth in triples and supers. Leave the reverses, and part wheels with different orders to the TV analysts who either don’t play, play and lose, or play with Monopoly money. You can’t win in a race like this using Tiz the Law any way but ice-cold, and I mean a proper ice cold.
As I have said before, you have to be willing to cash less tickets to win more money. If you are playing Tiz the Law it’s time to put that in practice.
As for me, I am undecided. I see all the indicators that Tiz the Law should win. I also see horses who are likely to improve, and I am more likely to take a shot on someone stepping up at a price. The Belmont track has been very kind to speed this week, and there is not a ton of it in the shortened Belmont. I may look for a horse with speed to steal it.
Whatever I decide, I’ll also take my stand and back my opinion. We all are wrong more than right in this game. When we are right, we have to make it count.