Saturday, 25 April 2020 00:46

What Works For You

Written by Jon Stettin

Last week I tried to illustrate why I do not bet to place and how I alternately structure my wagers to cover a horse I think can win, but also who might just hit the board. I liked Ollie’s Candy in the Apple Blossom. She ran great, almost too good to lose, but she was second beaten a long nose on the side. She was bet down to 9-1, still a nice price, and I would have done much better had she won, but no complaints.

Ollie’s Candy paid $7.60 for place. The $1 exacta was $35.90, the 50 cent triple was $128.05, the 10 cent superfecta came back $117.65. I think it is easy to see where the value or more lucrative wagers were. Ce Ce who was one of the favorites won, but the exotics were still a lot better than the place bet.

At the end of the day, we have to do what works for us. My style of “going for it” works and has worked for me.

The following day I singled a horse in the last leg of the Gulfstream Park mandatory payout Rainbow 6. The horse was 20-1 on the morning line and went off at 8-1 I think. A lot of people wouldn’t single a horse like that, especially following a tough beat on the win end the day before. Not me, I stick to what has worked for me as I recommend others stick to what works for them. If it is not working for you and you just can’t beat the games or take down the scores, then maybe you should consider a different approach.

One thing I personally never do is factor in anyone else’s opinion. Anyone! I never want to know who anybody else likes in a horse race. I don’t even want to let it affect me subconsciously. When I owned horses, I never asked my trainer what they thought. I told them what I thought. All they’d tell me was how the horse was training, and it was always good, or we wouldn’t run.

While there may be some good opinions out there, yours might just be the best one for any given race. I’ll share my opinions for those interested at Tracking Trips on occasion, but even there, I’ll advocate sticking to your guns, not mine.

This can be a tricky game. For those so inclined to consider the opinion of others, do it, but choose wisely and don’t discount your own thoughts.

I always talk about finding that elusive edge. While we have so few tracks running, I have a suggestion to try for those who like to hop around. Try stopping and just focusing 100% on one of the tracks running. I think there is a good chance you will fare better than when you jump around. If you do, and you can carry that forward to when racing resumes at tracks all over the place, you may have found an edge.

If you are devoting all your study and work to one venue, logically, you can expect to gain an edge over those playing multiple tracks. Edges are more and more difficult to find. We can’t limit where and how we look for them. Focusing on one track only should be easier to try in these times, and just maybe some low hanging fruit for the sharp player.

At Oaklawn Park tomorrow, I am looking for a big race off the lay-off from Eight Rings. It’s no walk in the park, but I suspect we may see his best effort yet.