Friday, 12 June 2020 11:04

Woodbine, Belmont and Gulfstream Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 13, 2020

Written by Ellis Starr

Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For June 13, 2020

Woodstock Pick 3 starting in Race 7 at Woodbine Post Time 4:21 Eastern 

Before I get into the races for today, I want to let everyone know that race 7 at Woodbine, the Woodstock Stakes, is my race of the day at Woodbine. If you want that analysis head over there. That being said, because the Pick 3 at Woodbine has a $0.20 base cost, I’m playing a pick 3 starting in race 7 and including the two races on this week’s blog:

Pick 3 at Woodbine:
Race 7: Newstome, Clayton
Race 8: Take Charge Eh, Owlette, Curlin’s Voyage, Ima Beast, Cool Shadows, Two Sixty, New York Groove
Race 9: Occasional View, Walkabout Creek, Sure Would Forest, Call Me Wally, Sumerian Bell, Kitchen Fire
Cost $16.80 at the $0.20 minimum

You can also play additional tickets using only Curlin’s Voyage, Cool Shadows and New York Groove in race 8 but using the same horses in races seven and nine, AND using only Occasional View, Walkabout Creek and Call Me Wally in race 9 but using the same horses in races seven and eight. These are all inexpensive tickets at the $0.20 level.

Star Shoot Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:53 PM Eastern

New York Groove was out of her element in the G3 Fantasy Stakes on dirt last time out and also before that in the G3 Florida Oaks on turf. On all-weather she’s unbeaten in four races including a stakes at Presque Isle and a stakes at Woodbine last November. She has been working splendidly on the all-weather at Fair Hills for Trombetta, gets Hernandez and a great post to stalk the pace dueling pair of Owlette and Two Sixty so should keep her perfect record on the surface intact.

Curlin’s Voyage is three for six on the surface, but her lone stakes win came around two turns. Unlike New York Groove, who has run twice this year, Curlin’s Voyage is coming back from six months off and finished second in her career debut. It appears she is better around two turns but she’s bred to sprint and I wouldn’t count her out as she too should benefit from the pace scenario.

Cool Shadows has won sprinting (on turf) and routing (on all-weather), the win coming in a stakes last October over the track. She finished third in her career debut but the 58.8, best of 36 workout she put in last week was fabulous and she has the figures and style to run well enough to win as well.

Bets:
Win: New York Groove to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
For a smaller amount Curlin’s Voyage if she’s 7 to 2 or higher and Cool Shadows if she’s 5 to 1 or higher near post time.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta and Trifecta: New York Groove, Curlin’s Voyage and Cool Shadows over New York Groove, Curlin’s Voyage, Cool Shadows, Take Charge Eh, Owlette, Ima Beast and Two Sixty

Handicap Race - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:22 PM Eastern

Noble Drama is almost a complete standout in this $55K purse handicap race, with just one other horse I can see winning the race, but as he opens at 9/2 he’s a KEY BET. He rallied from last of seven and four wide on the turn to make the lead in the Big Drama Stakes over the track at seven furlongs last month and got passed by a very good horse in Network Effect, holding second easily by a couple of lengths. Two before that he won the nine furlong Sunshine Millions Classic and before that he won at this one-turn mile trip. Bravo rides him back and will time the late move perfectly after Letruska and Wentz set a fast pace battling for the lead to give the gelding his FOURTH career win at this mile trip in his fifth try at the distance.

Diamond Oops is the other horse that can win but he opens at 8 to 5 compared to 9 to 2 for Noble Drama. Accomplished on dirt and turf, Diamond Oops drops in class after seven straight graded stakes races, including a win in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes in December at seven furlongs. He must be used in the win position on exacta and trifecta tickets but I just can’t bet him to win at low odds.

I’ll toss in Eye of a Jedi for Trifecta value, opening at 15/1. He hit the board in eight of 10 last year and comes into the race off a third place finish in the Sunday Silence Stakes at nine furlongs, so should be strong on the cutback in distance although it’s questionable whether his best is good enough to win.

Bets:
Win: Noble Drama to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

Trifecta: (Note: There’s not a lot of value in the exacta unless Eye of the Jedi finishes second but the trifecta is worth the play particularly as I don’t like the chances of Math Wizard one bit off his comeback in February followed by a four month layoff):

Noble Drama and Diamond Oops over Eye of a Jedi, Noble Drama and Diamond Oops over ALL
Noble Drama and Diamond Oops over ALL over Eye of a Jedi, Noble Drama and Diamond Oops

Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:24 PM Eastern

This starter allowance race is pretty salty, with a number of horses having chances, but I’ve landed on three who fit the five and one-half furlong trip and have an edge over the rest. Of the trio, Walkabout Creek gets first mention as he opens at 10/1 in spite of going four for eight last year and having a career record of six for 14. He’s one of the few here who are specialists at this short trip, having won back to back in November and December over the track. Moran has been his regular pilot and aboard for all the wins and the works for the comeback are very strong for this level including a fourth best of 119 on May 20 for five furlongs. He doesn’t need the lead which is good as Marten River and Kitchen Fire cannot possibly avoid dueling for the early lead, so Walkabout Creek can post the upset or at least split the two other contenders, both lower odds, for exacta profit.

Occasional View won four races last year just like Walkabout Creek, including three in a row in August, September and October and one to end the year in December. Husbands, who was up for the last four wins, rides back and the horse has won at the trip and should be in a great spot off the leaders as the field turns for home.

Call Me Wally is a win contender but least preferred as a win bet as he opens at 5 to 2. He won easily in his final race last year in November and was claimed out of the race from one high percentage barn (McKnight) to another (Drexler). He only won that one start in nine races last year and was one for five in 2018 BUT the race he won and was claimed from was his ONLY claiming race in two years and it qualified him to run at the level, otherwise he’d be ineligible. As such, he must be respected for exacta and other tickets we play involving this race.

Bets:
Win: Both Walkabout Creek and Occasional View to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. If Occasional View is lower than 5 to 2 near post time, just bet Walkabout Creek.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
Walkabout Creek over ALL and then the opposite as well, which is ALL over Walkabout Creek.
Walkabout Creek, Occasional View and Call Me Wally over ALL.

Ogden Phipps Stakes - Race 9 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern

Blamed has done little wrong in her 14 race career, winning nine times, including five in a row following a runner-up effort in her debut in the summer of 2017. Included in those wins were a pair of Kentucky Oaks prep races in the Island Fashion Stakes and Sunland Park Oaks. After missing the Kentucky Oaks and taking seven months off, Blamed moved to the barn of Bill Mott for the fall of her three year old campaign and nearly picked up where she left off, finishing second in the Raven Run Stakes before winning the Comely Stakes. Since then, Blamed has won every other start including the Royal Delta Stakes and a pair of classified allowance races in February and April of this year. Most importantly, Blamed earned her last four wins leading from start to finish, the last three of those being one-turn races just like the Ogden Phipps. After wearing blinkers her entire career, Blamed took them off for that last race, on April 30, earning a strong 102 Equibase Speed Figure, just shy of the career best 106 figure earned in the Comely and the 104 figure earned in the Royal Delta. With a strong half-mile workout at Belmont leading to this race and with the speed to have the early lead all to herself, I think Blamed can successfully play “come catch me” in this field and opening at 10/1 is a great bet.

Golden Award, the other Bill Mott trainee, appears to be the one most likely to catch Blamed if any horse can do just that. Golden Award has won five of 12 races in her career, finishing second in four others. She did not finish the race in the Personal Ensign Stakes in August of last year but both races prior to that and both races since then have been superb. Starting last May, Golden Award missed by a nose in the DuPont Distaff Stakes with a 104 figure, then two months later won the Shuvee Stakes to earn a 106 figure. Following a two month break after the DuPont Distaff, Golden Award stalked the leader in third early before gamely winning the Turnback the Alarm Stakes with a 109 career-best figure. After another rest, she returned for her five year old season in February and rallied for second in the Royal Delta Stakes with a 108 figure effort. As she appears to be holding top form and comes back again off a layoff just like the one prior to the Turnback the Alarm, a race in which she was ridden by Junior Alvarado (who rides her today), Golden Award has a very strong shot to run well enough to win the Ogden Phipps Stakes.

Pink Sands has won two graded stakes in a row, first the Rampart Stakes in December with a 97 figure, then the Inside Information Stakes in January with a 102 figure. In both starts, Pink Sands rallied strongly – from last of 10 then from 11th of 12. Those were both one-turn races so this one-turn mile and one-sixteenth trip should be no problem. Jose Ortiz was aboard for both wins and rides today. Pink Sands is a horse who likes to come from far back so is likely to be last of the six in the early stages but in this small field there is little concern about traffic trouble. Although Blamed may have an easy early lead, She’s a Julie, Ollie’s Candy and Golden Award all have tactical speed and could be pressing the pacesetter such that the pace may be faster than average. If that is the case, Pink Sands has potential to be rolling past the field in impressive fashion to win just as she did in her last two races.

There’s no real knocks on She’s A Julie, Point of Honor or Ollie’s Candy, the latter the 8 to 5 morning line favorite, but all have slight knocks as compared to the three main contenders so I’m just going to go with those.

Bets:
Win: Blamed and Pink Sands to win at 5 to 2 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Minimum odds on Golden Award are 5 to 2 as well but she opens at 7 to 2 and doesn’t offer the same value as the other two. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to bet her to win.

Exacta: Box Blamed, Pink Sands and Golden Award.