Key Races & Bets for Saturday, July 19th, 2025
Race 8 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:29 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Taraj
Taraj, who was entered last Saturday and scratched when the race (scheduled for grass) was moved to dirt, is an exceptionally well-bred colt who cost more than $600,000 at auction in Europe last year. He won one of four races in Europe, finishing second or third in two others, excluding the 10th of 12 effort last June at Royal Ascot in which he likely had issues, necessitating him coming to run in the U.S. He’s been acclimating well for Mott and gets the barn’s leading jockey in Alvarado and his third place effort on grass in a group three stakes off a five month layoff last May (2024) tells me all I need to know about how well he can run in an allowance race here in which many have run at this NW1X level multiple times without winning. Mott and Alvarado won with a similar European import in February at 12 to 1, and another ran second recently so it appears Taraj has enough class edge to run big in his U.S. debut.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Taraj should be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1.
Caress Stakes - Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:04 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Zeitlos, Future Is Now, Pipsy
For the second position on exacta tickets and third position on trifecta tickets: Pandora’s Gift, Kairyu
Zeitlos won six of nine races last year and earned nearly 800K in doing so. ALL but one of those were on dirt, including when winning the Grade 2 TCA Stakes in October. She was entered to run on grass last May and won that race, run on dirt, with a visually impressive rally from last of six. She then ran in the 2024 edition of this race, the Caress, and rallied from last of 10 to be in a FIVE horse blanket finish for the win, beaten two necks and two heads for the win. She took six months off from November until May and won her comeback nicely at six furlongs then finished third at seven furlongs in a tougher grade 2 stakes last month. The cut back in distance suits her well, as does the slight drop in class. The only other horse in this field to have run in last year’s Caress is Future Is Now, who will go to post at lower odds than Zeitlos, and considering Zeitlos got within a half-length of Future Is Now in last year’s race and is just as capable of winning, she gets slight preference.
Future Is Now also had a big 2024 campaign, winning five of nine and over a half-million dollars. She was off for four months until this April and like Zeitlos won her 2025 debut effort, in the identical Giant’s Causeway Stakes, a grade 3 stakes race. Last month in the higher-level grade 2 Intercontinental Stakes Future Is Now finished only a half-length behind Pipsy, after a little traffic issue with a half-mile to run. This filly has no knocks and would be no surprise if winning.
Pipsy is a perfect two-for-two this year, having won in April following six months off then winning the Intercontinental last month over this grass course at this distance. She won her U.S. debut in April of last year, also in a grade 3 stakes like this, then lost three straight before the time off and her nice wins this year. As such, Pipsy rounds out the trio which have the bulk of the probability to win.
Pandora’s Gift and Kairyu have both finished behind either Pipsy, Future Is Now, or both, in similar stakes, but could complete the exacta or trifecta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: All three top contenders – Zeitlos, Future Is Now and Pipsy, have about the same 30% probability to win because if this race were run as-is, I think the three of them (combined) would win 90 times in 100. Therefore, fair odds are 5/2 on all three and I would not hesitate to bet the two, of the trio, who are at 5 to 2 or higher near post time.
All three must be considered contenders for double, pick 3 and similar multi-race wagers we make involving this race .
If we do get better than fair odds on two of the three, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exactas: Zeitlos, Future Is Now, Pipsy over Zeitlos, Future Is Now, Pipsy, Pandora’s Gift, Kairyu
Box Zeitlos, Future Is Now, Pipsy
Coaching Club American Oaks Invitational - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:38 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Immersive, Take Charge Milady, La Cara
Immersive missed by a neck to Take Charge Milady in the Monomoy Girl Stakes last month, with Immersive likely to improve enough to beat her foe this time around as she was coming back from seven and one-half months away from the races in that race. Immersive was a perfect four for four in 2024, culminating with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and she won at Saratoga last August in the Spinaway Stakes, so is proven over the track, giving her a slight edge.
Take Charge Milady may have not run at Saratoga previously compared to Immersive and La Cara, BUT she put in a spectacular half-mile drill coming into this race suggesting she will run another “A” race following her win last month. That workout on July 12 was 47 flat and the best of 60 on the day. Earlier this year Take Charge Milady won the Martha Washington Stakes and finished second behind La Cara in the Ashland Stakes but finished 12th of 13 in the Kentucky Oaks. She rebounded big time in the Monomoy Girl and must be respected.
La Cara is two for three at Saratoga including a win last month at this distance in the similar Grade 1 Acorn Stakes, where she led from start to finish, the same way she earned her two other wins this year. Dylan Davis was up for all three and rides again. In the Oaks, La Cara set the pace for a mile then tired badly but the rebound last month shows she can be very tough in the three year old filly division and so she rounds out the trio who can win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Similar to the Caress Stakes (race 9) in this race the three contenders stick out and would win probably 90+ times in 100, so their fair odds are 2 to 1 and we can bet one or two to win at or above those odds, using the others on any double, pick 3 or similar multi-race bets we make.
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap - Race 11 at Saratoga - Post Time 6:13 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Nakatomi, Book’em Danno, Skelly
For the second position on exacta tickets: Mullikin
Nakatomi won the 2024 Vanderbilt Handicap at odds of 3 to 1, over Skelly and it appears both will run similarly well today. Nakatomi won the race last year off a third-place finish in the 2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen Stakes at the end of March and this year he ran even better in that race, missing by a neck on the wire. This year Nakatomi has run once since, but that race CAN BE IGNORED completely as he tossed his head in the air when the gate opened, giving his opponents a five-length head start after a few yards. Jockey Jaramillo rode Nakatomi for the first time when traveling to Dubai with him and gets back on after Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode last out. I suspect Ortiz, Jr. would be aboard today but he’s at Monmouth for Haskell day, and Jaramillo is certainly capable of getting the best from this talented sprinter, which may be good enough to win this for this race for the second year in a row.
Book’em Danno just won the slightly lower Grade 2 True North Stakes at Saratoga last month, and he also won the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes on the same weekend as the True North last year, as a three-year-old. Lopez has been aboard for his last two wins, and the horse returns to the distance where he’s a perfect three-for-three in his career.
Skelly is a speed horse on the rail but that shouldn’t be a problem as the two horses outside of him in the gate are not speed horses. He led from start to finish in April following five months off then dominated in a stakes race at this distance in May at Oaklawn. In his only start since then, at the end of May at Churchill Downs, Skelly had to duel for the lead for the first quarter mile and that cost him dearly as he faded to last of six. He could get loose today, and if so could earn his 13th career win, with all 12 to date having come at this six-furlong trip, in addition to his big effort when second in last year’s Vanderbilt as the 6 to 5 favorite.
Mullikin is another contender, very probable to finish second and nearly so to win, given his career record of 5-5-1 in 13 races including a runner-up effort behind Book’em Danno last month in the True North Stakes.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I’ll start with Nakatomi, who I will consider for a win bet at odds of 9 to 5 or more, followed by Book’em Danno at 2 to 1 and Skelly at 5 to 2.
All three contenders, plus Mullikin, must be considered contenders for double, pick 3 and similar multi-race wagers we make involving this race.
Exactas:
Nakatomi, Book’em Danno and Skelly over Nakatomi, Book’em Danno, Skelly and Mullikin
Nakatomi, Book’em Danno, Skelly and Mullikin over Nakatomi, Book’em Danno and Skelly