Friday, 05 June 2020 10:32

Belmont Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 6, 2020

Written by Ellis Starr

Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May 30, 2020

Westchester Stakes - Race 7 at Belmont Park - Post Time 4:32 PM Eastern

Chad Brown has been loaded waiting for racing to restart and it seems like he has more than one horse in every race he runs in. In this race he has a pair in Monongahela and Payne and both look very strong. Monongahela is one of many horses moving from suspended Servis. He’s not been seen since 2/15 but that was a huge effort when beaten a neck by multiple winner Alwaysmining. Two before that he won a 100K stakes strongly with a sweeping move. The 120 and 113 Equibase figures from those races are the best in the field this year and I have to think he’s going to run huge as a fresh horse with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. This one-turn mile and one-sixteenth trip should hit him right between the eyes as he’s already shown he loves this distance with 13 first or second place finishes in 17 tries. He opens at 4/1 and given the nature of the field that should hold up so he’s a nice low odds overlay.

Payne opens at 8/1, double the starting odds of his stablemate. After breaking his maiden in July, 2018, he had some issues both physically and mentally as he didn’t win in his next four races through last November, but he finished second three times. He’s won all three starts since, the last two one-turn miles so this one turn route is prefect and Carmouche, who is 3-for-3 when in the saddle, stays aboard. Payne earned a 113 figure in his 12/12/19 win so has the chops to get the win as well or to be right there at the finish for the exacta.

Senior Investment has earned $700K in his career to have the second highest bankroll in the field. Like Payne, Senior Investment has won three in a row, with 108, 111 and 106 figures. He fits on all counts and opens at 10/1.

Now, to the ridiculous morning line favorite, Code of Honor, opening at 6/5. Yes, the morning line is probably right given all the hype and the fact he won the Fountain of Youth last winter and the Travers last summer. BUT, he’s returning from seven months off for McGaughey, who doesn’t usually have his horses cranked up off long layoffs, evidenced by a 5 for 43 record the last five years. This is a grade 3 stakes and a comeback race for the horse, so there’s no real incentive to go all out, and it’s not like he’s meeting a weak group as might be the case in an allowance race which had conditions written for him. I have no interest.

Honorable mention goes to Wait for It, particularly where the exacta is concerned. He beat Senior Investment in January then finished second as the 7 to 5 favorite in February before a poor effort but returning to the form shown in either of those other two races he could run big at high odds.

Bets:
Win: Monongahela to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more, a true KEY BET on the day.
Payne and Senior Investment can be bet to win at 7 to 2 or higher, for a smaller amount then wagered on Monangahela.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Box Monongahela, Payne and Senior Investment
Then, for the minimum $1, play a box consisting of Monongahela, Payne, Senior Investment and Wait For It.

Double:
Race 7: Monongahela, Payne, Senior Investment, Wait for It
Race 8: Viadera, Eyeinthesky, Regal Glory, Getmotherarose, Rose Flower, Significant Form


Pick 3: The Pick 3 ticket I’d like to play is this one but the cost (if all horses run) is $144 because of the $1 minimum at Belmont which is too steep in my opinion.
Race 7: Monongahela, Payne, Senior Investment, Wait for It
Race 8
: Viadera, Eyeinthesky, Regal Glory, Getmotherarose, Rose Flower, Significant Form
Race 9: Majestic Dunhill, Network Effect, Vekoma, Mind Control, Firenze Fire, Performer

So, because of the cost the choices are to just play the double, or to cut down the cost of the ticket, certainly I have no problem singling Monangahela in the first leg like this:
Race 7: Monongahela
Race 8: Viadera, Eyeinthesky, Regal Glory, Getmotherarose, Rose Flower, Significant Form
Race 9: Majestic Dunhill, Network Effect, Vekoma, Mind Control, Firenze Fire, Performer
This is a $36 ticket. This ticket, plus the double, still makes a lot of sense for making a profit.

Intercontinental Stakes - Race 8 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:04 PM Eastern

Favorite Significant Form isn’t suspect and must be included on pick 3 and double tickets, exacta and trifecta tickets, there are enough question marks to look elsewhere for value. With that in mind, Eyeinthesky cannot possibly be ignored opening at 20/1.

She had a fine 2019 campaign as a three year old, with three wins and two runner-up finishes in 10 races, eight on turf. Nine of those 10 races were stakes and most carried the same purse, or higher, than this race so she’s not outclassed on any level. In preparation for this race, Eyeinthesky has worked SENSATIONALLY, with a best of 65 on 4/25, a best of 136 on May 2, a 2nd best of 40 on May 18 then at Belmont on 5/28 a best of 40. Castellano getting on gives me a lot of confidence, but most of all the race on 2/25 was significant not for her third place finish but for the tremendous trouble she had in the stretch. Bumped a number of times from the eighth pole to the sixteenth pole, when she finally had a path and stretched her legs she was flying. If she gets anything like a clean trip she can run big here at high odds.

Significant Form won this race last year off a seven month layoff, and won her only other two-turn turf stakes races last summer including the similar Noble Damsel on the Belmont Turf. She proved she wasn’t a grade 1 type when seventh in the Matriarch in California in December, so she fits on all counts and has proven capable of winning fresh. The only knock is the extreme outside 12 post combined with her tactical speed style so she will need to use some speed to attain good position before the turn and not go too wide. As I wrote previously, she’s a must to be used for exotic bets but I just can’t recommend a win bet anywhere near her 5/2 starting odds.

A second win bet may come with Rose Flower, who opens at 8 to 1. She won a stakes in France last July and won her second start in the U.S. last fall, at this seven furlong trip over the course. In her next start after that, in December, she had the same kind of trouble Eyeinthesky had in her most recent start and might have won if not blocked for a good portion of the stretch run.

Regal Glory won or placed in the first seven races of her career, six of those stakes. One of those was the Grade 2 Lake Placid last summer at Saratoga. She can be forgiven for a poor effort in the QE II (a grade 1 race) at the end of a hard campaign and I expect her to be even stronger now as a four year old. She won in her debut and Brown’s runners fire off long layoffs so she has to be considered strongly for all wagers made involving this race.

Now, to the morning line favorite Newspaperofrecord. She’s not as vulnerable as Code of Honor in the previous race, but she’s got issues which make it difficult for her to win. Brown gets horses ready to win off long layoffs but he has THREE others in here and this one, particularly, has only showed a NEED-the-LEAD style. She found 10 furlongs too far in the Belmont Oaks last July after winning three of five to start her career, but she couldn’t win the G3 Edgewood off a November 2018 to May 2019 layoff and as a horse coming back from a layoff she’s going to be very “Fresh” and want the lead. Unfortunately for her, Jakarta, just outside of her in the gate, absolutely need the lead to win so that further compromises the chances of Newspaperofrecord. However, if Jakarta happens to scratch, Newspaperofrecord can be considered for pick 3 and double wagers.

Viadera and Getmotharose both have races which, if repeated, make them contenders as well.

Bets:
Win: Eyeinthesky and Rose Flower to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Eyeinthesky and Rose Flower over ALL.
This bet is the same as a win bet so it’s optional.

Another bet is the “Exacta as a place bet” which can be more profitable than a place bet:
ALL over Eyeinthesky and Rose Flower.

Trifecta:
Box Eyeinthesky, Rose Flower, Regal Glory and Significant Form.

Double:
Race 8: Viadera, Eyeinthesky, Regal Glory, Getmotherarose, Rose Flower, Significant Form
Race 9: Majestic Dunhill, Network Effect, Vekoma, Mind Control, Firenze Fire, Performer

Runhappy Carter Handicap - Race 9 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern

I liked Majestic Dunhill in a classified allowance race on April 25. It was his first start off a 10 month layoff but it was a seven furlong sprint so that was okay. He got bet down to 9 to 1 but he blew the start with a slight hop and was last early, many lengths behind the sixth horse in a field of seven. On the turn Majestic Dunhill was moving but instead of wheeling to the center of the track, the jockey tried to go between horses, found there no room, then pulled him outside for room. All being said and done, Majestic Dunhill flew home the last 50 yards and missed second by a nose. He opens at 20/1 here and has a legitimate chance to win even in this salty bunch. The horse has won nearly $300K and his best efforts have come at this trip. In the fall of 2018 he won the City of Laurel Stakes then missed by a length when 12th of 14 early in the General George Stakes last February (2019). That prep on 4/25 sets him up nicely here and the 112 Equibase figure he earned in the 2018 General George happens to be the same as the 112 figure likely favorite Firenze Fire earned winning the same race this year. Trained by George Weaver, the same as the third choice on the morning line, Vekoma, it appears the two horses worked in company on May 24 and 18 so I think he has much more probability to win then is suggested by those odds.

Network Effect opens at 8/1 and that’s too high to ignore as well. The ONLY Chad Brown trainee in the race, he gets red hot Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode him for the first time one month ago to win a minor stakes at Gulfstream Park at the trip. The colt has only run twice as a four year old, going from a 102 figure on 3/28 to a 111 figure five weeks later. Very likely to progress further, this colt has a big shot to win this grade 1 stakes.

Vekoma, Mind Control, Firenze Fire and Performer all can win but opening at 4/1, 7/2, 7/2 and 3/1 offer little value for win bets. None of the four are standouts, but the fact there are so many top sprinters means there will be no clear favorite either. Vekoma made a sensational comeback run on 3/28 with a 109 figure at the trip in a race similar to the one Network Effect won on 5/2 (with a better 111 figure) and can improve second off the layoff. Mind Control is a perfect two-for-two this year and the 112 figure earned last out in the Tom Fool Stakes was a career-best. Firenze Fire is nearing the $2 million mark in career earnings and makes his first start after leaving the Servis barn. He’s been working well but the 112 figure earned in the General George is competitive here but nothing more. Performer won the nine furlong Discovery Stakes when last seen at the end of November, with a 112 figure, winning all three races before that after a third place debut. He fits on all counts as well.

Bets:
Win: Majestic Dunhill and Network Effect to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta as a place bet: ALL over Majestic Dunhill.

Exacta: Majestic Dunhill and Network Effect over ALL, then also the opposite, which is All over Majestic Dunhill and Network Effect.