Key Races & Bets for Friday, July 4th & Saturday, July 5th, 2025

Ellis Starr
July 2, 2025

Friday, July 4th Belmont Derby Invitational – Race 9 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern Top win contender: Luther Other contenders: Test Score, New Century As is usually […]

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Key Races & Bets for Friday, July 4th & Saturday, July 5th, 2025

Friday, July 4th

Belmont Derby Invitational - Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern

Top win contender: Luther
Other contenders: Test Score, New Century

As is usually the case with top turf races in North America, European imports have to be examined first, because in many cases they are farther along at this time of year than locally based horses and they have run against tougher horses. Such is the case with Luther, who has run in two straight Group 1 stakes in France, with purses of $730,000 and $1.7 million. Those group 1 races and the horses which ran in them are higher level than most grade 1 races in North America. His best effort of the two came in his second start of the year and second after six months off when he finished fourth of 16 in May on a firm course, a neck from third. That third-place finisher, Camille Pissarro, returned three weeks later to win the Prix du Jockey Club, with Luther finishing 15th of 18. Keiran Shoemark, who has ridden the colt to two of his wins, comes across the pond to ride, and the horse’s 120 and 113 Equibase Speed Figures from his last two races pretty much tower over these, with the next best figure belonging to New Century, when fourth of 12 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. As a son of Frankel, there’s no doubt Luther will love this nine furlong trip and just repeating either of his last two efforts in this field should be good enough to win.

Test Score ran well when rallying for second in the American Turf Stakes on Derby day, behind Zulu Kingdom, who should have won race eight (the Manila Stakes) just before this race as the odds-on favorite. Test Score won the Transylvania Stakes prior to that, and his 100 and 104 figures from those two races make him a contender, particularly if Luther doesn’t run well. New Century came over from Europe to win the Grade 1 Summer Stakes last September as a two-year-old, winning rather easily in a field of 10 and earning a 104 figure which he improved upon to 112 six weeks later when fourth, beaten two lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That race was won by Henri Matisse, who won the race on May 11 in which Luther was fourth and is one of the top turf stars in Europe this year. New Century ran poorly when fifth in his 2025 debut in April following five months off then shipped back to North America, rallying from 12th and further back in the American Stakes as compared to Test Score, to get third, only a nose behind Test Score at the end. Oisin Murphy, who rode New Century in EVERY ONE of his first seven races then did not ride in the American Turf, comes over from England to ride, and with just slight improvement off his last effort New Century may be able to finish in front of Test Score this time, and perhaps run well enough to win.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Luther should be considered for a win bet at odds as low as 8 to 5.
Test Score and New Century can be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas:
Luther over Test Score and New Century

Saturday, July 5th

Sanford Stakes - Race 3 at Saratoga - Post Time 1:40 PM Eastern

Win contender: Blinging It Back
Exacta contender: Obliteration

Considering Obliteration dominated in his one and only start to win by seven lengths, with a field high 91 Equibase Speed Figure, he should be the heavy favorite in this six-horse field of talented two-year-olds. Blinging It Back has finished third and second in his two races so may be disregarded a bit as a maiden in a stakes race, but he is likely to post the mild upset in a race with a first-time starter (Honey Dutch) and another maiden (Imagine John). Blinging It Black broke slowly then finished very strongly for third after being 10 lengths back in a four- and one-half furlong race in his May 1 debut. Well-regarded by top trainer Mark Casse (who also saddles Strategic Risk, the likely early leader), Blinging It Back entered the Tremont Stakes as a maiden on June 5 and was sent to post as the six to five favorite. However, in that five-horse field Mythical took control and lead all the way, with Blinging It Back having little chance to pass that lone front runner. Nevertheless, that race has already produced another stakes winner, because Romeo, who was almost eight lengths behind Blinging It Back in third, won the Bashford Manor Stakes last weekend at Churchill Downs, improving markedly. If Blinging It Back takes a similar step forward, he should win this race.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Blinging It Back can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more.

Exacta: Blinging It Back over Obliteration and Strategic Risk

Indiana General Assembly Stakes - Race 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis - Post Time 2:23 PM Eastern

Top Win contender in preference order: Nice as Pie, Dana’s Beauty. Mohawk Trail
For exactas: Storm Miami, Mucho Macho Girl, She’s Lookin Lucky

It’s Indiana Derby Day and there is a great card including a lot of tough stakes races at this Shelbyville, Indiana track. This race in particularly is very interesting, with a 10-horse field going one mile and one-sixteenth and with many ways to go. However, opening at 10 to 1 odds, Nice as Pie is the one we should look to for a profit on wagers made involving this race. She’s run 14 times, finishing first or second in eight, including four stakes. Most of her races, and all her wins, have come on all-weather, but that’s fine as those translate to turf just a nicely. She’s run in turf three times and one of those race is HIGHLY REPRESENTATIVE of what she can do in this race. That was the Pennsylvania Oaks last May (2024) where Nice As Pie was 10th for the first half mile and missed by a head at odds of 3 to 1. That race came on the stretch out from a sprint, which is just what she’s doing today. She returns from three months off following a fourth-place finish when beaten a neck for third in the Queen Stakes and she’s been working very well for her return to the races.

Dana’s Beauty has won 12 of 46 races and like Nice as Pie most of his wins (29) have been on all-weather but she’s run well on grass too. She won the Latonia Stakes in March around the same time Nice as Pie was fourth in the Queen Stakes, then she shipped to Canada for the Belle Mahone Stakes on May 31, but faded to sixth after being a head off the leader for the first half mile. That isn’t the way she likes to be ridden as she either wants the lead early or, better still she likes to be third to sixth in the early stages. Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez is the only big name rider from out of town in for the races on Indiana Derby day and picks up the mount, so Dana’s Beauty has a solid shot to add to her fantastic record in this situation.

Mohawk Trail won a stakes race on grass three races back at the end of March, jockey Beschizza in the saddle as today. She was overmatched in the Grade 3 Beaugay after the win then in the Miss Liberty Stakes on May 25 (her most recent race) she finished third of seven while never rallying. Beschizza gets back on and the mare ran second the only time she ran on this turf course, in a stakes back in May of 2023, so she’s got a shot as well with her best effort.

She’s Lookin Lucky starts at the 3 to 1 favorite and has a high probability to finish first or second so must be included on exacta tickets but may not be a good win bet a low odds as she has led with an eighth of a mile to run in her last two races but settled for second. Storm Miami is eligible to run in a second level allowance race after a first level allowance win last month but trainer Walsh ships her in and she could be competitive. Mucho Macho Girl ships in from California where she finished third in a highly rated classified allowance (one level below stakes) last month and she won a little stakes in Arizona two races before that.

Handicapper Picks

Win: All three top win contenders – Nice as Pie, Dana’s Beauty and Mohawk Trail, can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more. Considering all three may be at those odds or higher, we should consider better the two of the three which are the highest odds.

When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.

Exactas:
Box Nice as Pie, Dana’s Beauty and Mohawk Trail

Nice as Pie, Dana’s Beauty and Mohawk Trail over Nice as Pie, Dana’s Beauty and Mohawk Trail, She’s Lookin Lucky, Storm Miami and Mucho Macho Girl
Optionally, we can play the opposite of that exacta as well.

Indiana Derby - Race 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis - Post Time 6:33 PM Eastern

Top Win contenders in preference order: Tip Top Thomas, Instant Replay
Exacta contender: Chunk of Gold
Trifecta contenders: Coal Battle, Big Truzz

Tip Top Thomas is the likely reason Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez is riding in Indiana today and foregoing some potentially winning mounts in stakes and other races in New York. Tip Top Thomas is a lightly raced three-year-old who has done little wrong in four races. He won at six furlongs in his debut last summer at Saratoga, then led late before finishing second in the very important Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last October. Something must have set him back as he did not run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile nor any of the Road to the Derby races this year. He returned in April, once again in a sprint, and finished fourth but then when stretched out to a mile for his last race, on May 25, Tip Top Thomas dominated in hand to win by three lengths and earned a stakes quality 101 Equibase Speed Figure. I say stakes quality because Instant Replay won the Texas Derby with a 102 figure effort and Big Truzz earned a 103 figure when third in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes last month while Coal Battle earned a 106 figure when third in the Matt Winn Stakes on June 8. Tip Top Thomas improved markedly in his second start off the layoff and is likely to take another step forward, so opening at 6 to 1 odds he gets top billing.

Instant Replay tried his hand on the Derby trail in March but trainer Cox didn’t think the third-place finish was good enough so he entered him four weeks later in the Bath House Row Stakes, not a Derby points race, in which Instant Replay rallied from fifth to win as the heavy favorite. Shipping to Lone Star, Instant Replay defeated nine other horses in the Texas Derby on May 26, earning a career best 102 figure. In 2021, Mr. Wireless finished second in the Texas Derby before winning the Indiana Derby and Instant Replay certainly can run similarly well, giving Brad Cox his third fourth winner in this race in the past five years, having won it in 2020, 2023 and last year.

Chunk of Gold is a MUST to use on any exacta tickets played owing to his hard trying style which has led to one win and four runner-up finishes in six races. He finished second in the Risen Star in February, in the Louisiana Derby in March and in the Ohio Derby a couple of weeks ago. His only bad race this year cam when ninth in the Kentucky Derby and even that wasn’t too bad as he clipped heels early, then moved up to sixth before trying hard to the end.

Coal Battle faded a bit to third in the Matt Winn four weeks ago after pressing in second and similarly lost a position when third in the Arkansas Derby after being second with an eighth of a mile to run. He may be just a cut below the top horses here but could get a piece. Big Truzz tries two turns for the first time off a third-place effort in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens Stakes four weeks ago. He continues to improve and is bred to the trip but it must be noted he is also entered to run in the Iowa Derby today.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Tip Top Thomas can be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1, and Instant Replay at 5 to 2.

Exactas: Tip Top Thomas and Instant Replay over Tip Top Thomas and Instant Replay and Chunk of Gold

Trifectas: Tip Top Thomas and Instant Replay over Tip Top Thomas and Instant Replay and Chunk of Gold over Tip Top Thomas, Instant Replay, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle and Big Truzz.

Ellis Starr

Ellis is available @Ubercapper and is a renowned Public handicapper, blogger, speaker, fan educator of horse racing. In 2025, Ellis finished 34th in the National Handicapping Contest (NHC) earning him $14,500 in prize money!

Ellis provides analysis on key stakes races so check back often and keep an eye on his value lines and his advice on dutching your picks. Value is important when deciding who to bet and how much to bet.