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Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) – Race 9 at Del Mar – Post Time 9 PM Eastern (6 pm Pacific)

Top Win Contender(s): Kensington Lane

Kensington Lane won her first U.S. start, the Belmont Oaks on July 4. She was purchased after winning the Group 3 Athasi Stakes on May 4 in England, then she went into the Group 1 1000 Guineas Stakes, one of the most prestigious races for three-year-olds. She finished fifth of 11, and the winner of the race, Precise, subsequently won the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Kensington Lane earned her career-best Equibase Speed Figure (110) in the 1000 Guineas, even though she finished fifth. In the Belmont Oaks, she started in 10th, was fourth after the first half, led after the quarter pole, and won handily. Joel Rosario was in the saddle for the win, and he rides her again, and even though she earned a 94 figure, she is right to improve in her U.S. start. She is the only horse in the field that has won even a graded stakes, and she is the only horse that I think can win this race in a 10-horse field.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Kensington Lane at 2 to 1 or higher.

Pacific Classic Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 10 at Del Mar – Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern (6:30 Pacific)

Top Win Contender(s): Navajo Warrior, Hit Show

For exactas: Forged Steel, Finger, Malarchuk, Knightsbridge

Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. has two horses in this Pacific Classic Stakes: Navajo Warrior and Forged Steel. Both horses have won graded stakes at around this distance. Forged Steel won the Gold Cup Stakes on May 26 at Santa Anita, and Navajo Warrior won the Pimlico Special on May 15, then won the Cornhusker Stakes on July 11. On paper, it appears both horses have an “early” style, as both of their last two races were won leading from the start.

However, Forged Steel has never been second early before, and Navajo Warrior has won many races from a stalking position. Also, Forged Steel has the two-post draw, so he will go to the lead. There are two other “early” horses, Full Serrano, who gets the 10 post, and Finger, a Japanese import who won his recent race, the Tokyo Derby, leading from the start. It is possible that Forged Steel can get the lead alone, and the other “early” horses will have to stalk, which doesn’t help their chances.

Navajo Warrior gets jockey Micah Husbands, who won Navajo Warrior on the Cornhusker. Navajo Warrior earned a 107 Equibase Speed Figure, the same he earned in the Pimlico Special. Given the likelihood of a very fiery pace, Navajo Warrior is the horse I am betting to win, particularly as he starts at 8 to 1.

Hit Show earned his best win in April 2025 when he won the Dubai World Cup, beating Forever Young and nine other horses. Forever Young subsequently won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Hit Show earned a career-best 127 figure. He has run three times since, in nine tries. His last win came in February when he came off a three-month layoff in the Mineshaft Stakes; then he entered this year’s Dubai World Cup, where he only finished fifth. In his two races since, he finished third in the Blame Stakes on May 30, then finished second to this distance in the Suburban Stakes. Hit Show had no shot in that race as the lone frontrunner, Phileas Fogg, slowed up the pace and won by 10 lengths. Still, Hit Show rallied to finish and earned a 107 figure. With this race having no clear frontrunner and likely three horses, Hit Show’s 107 figure in his last race was the same as Navajo Warrior’s. He is also a good bet, with his starting odds at 6 to 1.

Forged Steel, Finger, Malarchuk, and Knightsbridge also have a shot at finishing in the money. Malarchuk finished second from start to finish behind Forged Steel. Knightsbridge is likely to be the favorite, as he won seven of 11 starts, and his recent race was a 109 figure when he won the Monmouth Cup Stakes. However, that was his first race beyond nine furlongs, and he has been running at 10 furlongs this time. His chance isn’t as good as his odds suggest (5 to 2) because he has the 11 post and has never been worse than third at the half in his last eight races.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Navajo Warrior, Hit Show at 2 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Navajo Warrior, Hit Show over Navajo Warrior, Hit Show, Forged Steel, Finger, Malarchuk, Knightsbridge

Del Mar Mile Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 11 at Del Mar – Post Time 10 PM Eastern (7 Pacific)

Top Win Contender(s): Detain

Other contenders: King of Gosford, El Potente

Must use in trifectas: Cabo Spirit

Detain was imported from England after September and took a few months to get ready. In his first U.S. start on June 7, he ran pretty well considering the nine-month layoff, finishing sixth to third. In his second race, on July 17 at Del Mar, Detain ran a big race, rallying from eighth to win by over one length. His European form was good, with three wins in eight races, including third-place finishes in the Group 1 Prix Du Jockey Club and the Group 2 Joel Stakes. Both of those races are tougher than the Del Mar Mile, and he is making his third race off the layoff, when he should peak. Also, if both Cabo Spirit and Flyover are going to have a blistering early pace, then the first quarter will be under 23 and the first half under 46, which really helps Detain’s kick.

King of Gosford was 2-to-1 odds in the 2025 Del Mar Stakes after winning the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile in May. But he had no kick and finished sixth of six. He was kept on the sidelines until April, and he finished fourth and third before winning the Wickerr Stakes at Del Mar on July 26. He is back in form, and this veteran has won eight times in 21 races, so he has another horse with a shot to finish fast.

El Potente, in most of his races, has raced first, second, or third early, so with the 12 post that gives me pause about his chances. However, he showed new tactics in his last race, where he was fourth and seven lengths back early; then he put in a big kick to get within a head in the stretch, and he was only beaten a half-length.

Cabo Spirit, even though he should be through the torrid pace, still has a shot to finish third (or second), as he did in the 2025 Del Mar, where he finished third.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Detain at 3 to 1 or higher.

King of Gosford, El Potente at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

Exacta:

Detain over King Gosford and El Potente

Box: Detain, King Gosford, El Potente

Trifecta box: Detain, King Gosford, El Potente, Cabo Spirit