Ellis Starr’s Blog

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – July 24, 2021

Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:39 PM Eastern Glass Ceiling, Firing Carol, Amendment Nineteen, Caramel Swirl and Flash Magic are the contenders. Glass Ceiling has three career wins and seven of the other eight have just one. She actually won at this first allowance level in May of last year in Florida and since coming to New York after that has a record of 0-4-4 in 13 starts so it’s not as if she’s been running badly. The key is her now being in the Baker barn, which claimed her one before [...]

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – July 17, 2021

Osunitas Stakes - Race 9 at Del Mar - Post Time 9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific Tapwater, Nasty and Sedamar are the win contenders. Brooke should be used in second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets played. Tapwater might have won the Grade 3 Santa Barbara Stakes when last seen in May if not for nearly falling on her face when the gate opened. She moved up quickly, perhaps too quickly, to the lead and led for one mile and three eighths but the race was a mile and one half [...]

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – July 10, 2021

Belmont Oaks Invitational - Race 7 at Belmont - Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern Santa Barbara is a legitimate favorite coming off a tremendous effort beaten a neck in a head bob in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the end of June. That being said, the two other European invaders, Cirona and Nazuna, open at 12/1 and 20/1 and based on the fact people like to bet U.S. based horses over obviously more classy Europeans much of the time, the potential for profit even in exactas, plus doubles and pick 3’s, from [...]

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – July 3, 2021

Kent Stakes - Race 7 at Delaware Park - Post Time 4:15 PM Eastern Among the three win contenders, who between them have about 90% of the probability to win this race combined, Gershwin is likely to offer the best return for the risk, opening at 8/1. Never worse than third in five races, Gershwin has yet to run on grass because in all three races where he was entered for a turf race, all three were run on dirt. I don’t necessarily think trainer Stidham was praying for rain each time as the [...]

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – June 26, 2021

Lady Jacqueline Stakes - Race 8 at Thistledown - Post Time 4:14 PM Eastern Contenders: Gran Baby is the “X Factor” in this field as she’s making her U.S. debut. She has a strong record of 5-2-3 in 13 races in her native Chile, the last two of those against males where she won one and finished second in the other. Since importing to the U.S. and into the Ken McPeek barn she’s been in fairly steady training and gets Lanerie. The nine furlong trip is of no concern as the mare has won [...]

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