Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 17th, 2025

Ellis Starr
May 15, 2025

Gallorette Stakes – Race 7 at Pimlico – Post Time 2:07 PM Eastern Top win contenders: Queen of the Mud, Dana’s Beauty, Three Havanas For exactas: Way to Be Marie, Sparkle Blue Queen of the Mud finished second last month in a turf sprint following nearly six months off and...

Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 17th, 2025

Gallorette Stakes - Race 7 at Pimlico - Post Time 2:07 PM Eastern

Top win contenders: Queen of the Mud, Dana’s Beauty, Three Havanas
For exactas: Way to Be Marie, Sparkle Blue

Queen of the Mud finished second last month in a turf sprint following nearly six months off and is ready to stretch out to two turns on turf and win, just like she did before the layoff when taking the Swingtime Stakes at Santa Anita. She’s been first or second in seven of nine and gets Prat to ride, who was aboard for Back-to-Back wins earlier in her career. Motion has a fantastic record going sprint to route on turf (22 for 82, better than 25%) over the last three years as well.

Dana’s Beauty just won a stakes at this distance on all-weather at Turfway Park and has won three turf routes in her career including a stakes last May. She’s finished first or second in eight of her last 11 races and Jose Ortiz was up for one of the wins as well as a head defeat the last two times he rode her so she should put in another “A” effort good enough to win.

Three Havanas imports from Europe for Clement and gets Rosario, who has accounted for three of the trainer’s last five wins with imports in stakes like this one. She won a Group 3 stakes last June, higher level than this grade 3 stakes, and she’s been working well in Florida and New York for her U.S. debut so must be respected.

Morning line second favorite Way to Be Marie is no standout but can be used on exacta tickets. Her record of 3-3-2 in 10 turf races speaks for itself in terms of she being as happy to hit the board as to win and the nine post does her no favors. Sparkle Blue finished second in a stakes at Laurel last month and is another who can be part of the exacta with her best effort, evidenced by her having finished first or second in 10 of 21 career turf races.

Handicapper Picks

Win:
Queen of the Mud is a key bet to win and low odds overlay at 2 to 1 or higher.
Dana’s Beauty should be considered for a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Three Havana’s starts as the 5 to 2 favorite and we can make money if she wins on exacta tickets.

When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.

Exactas:
Box Queen of the Mud, Dana’s Beauty and Three Havanas

Queen of the Mud, Dana’s Beauty and Three Havanas over Queen of the Mud, Dana’s Beauty and Three Havanas, Way to Be Marie and Sparkle Blue
(The exacta above can also be played as a $0.50 trifecta with the same five horses in third position as well).

Double:
Race 7: Queen of the Mud, Dana’s Beauty and Three Havanas
Race 8: Normandy Coast, Keep It Easy, Faster Gator

Chick Lang Stakes - Race 8 at Pimlico - Post Time 2:48 PM Eastern

Win contenders: Normandy Coast, Keep It Easy, Faster Gator
For exactas; One Nine Hundred

Normandy Coast starts at 12 to 1 odds which would be a gift if he wins. He just won the nearly identical Palisades Stakes at Keeneland on April 6, which carried a 300K purse, and he did so rather easily by three and one-half lengths. He showed a lot of maturity in that race when relaxing in third early then moving up to second and then taking over. Now three for three in dirt sprints following his fourth-place debut last June, and with Saez taking over for Curtis this colt has a big shot to win again and pay nicely.

Keep It Easy has won two of his last three sprints since finishing seventh in his debut last June. The one bad race sprinting came in the Saratoga Special last summer when well-regarded at 5 to 2 but he rebounded off that to win a stakes in November, the Ed Brown Stakes, with a 225K purse, similar to the Palisades which Normandy Coast won but more recently. He’s been off for a couple of months after an irrelevant try around two turns in the Fountain of Youth and he put in a sensational half-mile workout five days ago suggesting he will run his best race, which is good enough to win.

Faster Gator won the first two starts of his career, both dirt sprints, on this circuit last June and then in March following six months off. Like the other two previously mentioned contenders, Faster Gator ran in a similar dirt sprint stakes, the Bay Shore, at Aqueduct last month, missing by a head after battling head-and-head down the stretch. He has not run a bad race and another “A” effort should be forthcoming.

Honorable mention goes to One Nine Hundred, who missed by a head in his debut in January, finished second to Colloquial (like winning) in February then won by seven lengths in March. Unlike the other three contenders, One Nine Hundred is moving from maiden ranks to stakes and that difference in experience could be significant but he’s fast and he’s talented.

Handicapper Picks

Win: We should strongly consider win bets on both Normandy Coast and Keep It Easy at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Considering the potential odds disparity, as Normandy Coast opens at 12 to 1 and Keep it Easy opens at 4 to 1, using the “Dutching Tool” at Amwager to get the best mathematical edge possible is a REALLY good idea.

Faster Gator has minimum odds of 7 to 2 for a win bet so if one of the two above is below the 5 to 2 threshold, he can be substituted for a second win bet.

Exacta:
Box Normandy Coast, Keep It Easy, Faster Gator
Normandy Coast, Keep It Easy, Faster Gator over Normandy Coast, Keep It Easy, Faster Gator, One Nine Hundred

Sir Barton Stakes - Race 10 at Pimlico - Post Time 4:11 PM Eastern

Top Win contenders: Bestfriend Rocket, Authentic Gallop
Other contenders: Just a Fair Shake, Crudo, Invictus

“IF” the public follows suit with the morning line, where Crudo is 2 to 1 and Invictus is 9 to 5, this could be a very profitable race because even though they can win, three other horses, all likely to be higher odds, have about the same chance to win.

We’ll start with Bestfriend Rocket, opening at 15 to 1. He started his career with Bill Mott last summer but finished ninth and sixth, in a turf route then a dirt sprint. Moved to the Brittay Russell barn, he won by EIGHT lengths at this distance at Laurel last October and two later by five lengths, showing a lot of talent. Between December 28 and March 15, he moved to the barn of D Wayne Lukas and won on March 2 at Oaklawn at this distance in a big effort when he had to work hard to go by the leader, making up a length and one-half in the final stages to win by a nose. After being completely overmatched in the Arkansas Derby, he fits PERFECTLY here and put in a strong five-furlong workout at Churchill Downs eight days ago. Juarez rode him to the win in March and stays aboard off the irrelevant Arkansas Derby effort. The colt is three for four at the distance and can absolutely post the upset here.

Authentic Gallop also offers excellent value for all kinds of wagers, opening at 8 to 1. Like Bestfriend Rocket, he tried turf routing last summer, but in this case he ran big when leading all the way to near the wire and ending up a neck short of victory. He ran really badly in his next two but reversed form in December with a two-length win at the trip. Taking blinkers off two races later, in February, Authentic Gallop proved very game when rallying from fourth to get up by a head on the wire. That win on February 7 at Oaklawn, at this distance, was nearly identical to Bestfriend Rocket’s win in March at the same NW1X allowance level and just like Bestfriend Rocket, Authentic Gallop was overmatched in his only race since then when put in the Virginia Derby. Moving back a notch in class, if he repeats his effort one before last, he could be right there at the wire with Bestfriend Rocket for a very nice exacta.

Just a Fair Shake has only run in dirt route races in his four race career, winning twice, finishing second once and third once. His last effort on April 19 was his best yet when finishing second to Pay Billy in the Federico Tesio Stakes at the longer distance of nine furlongs. Pay Billy is running in the Preakness today and the fact Just a Fair Shake was within a head of the lead with an eighth of a mile to go, and won at this distance prior to that, indicates he fits here on all counts.

Back to the two favorites, both who can win but don’t have to, and are not standouts here, certainly not offering any sort of value for win bets. Crudo runs in a two turn race for the first time and moves up from the maiden ranks to stakes. It’s very tough to bet a horse to win at low odds trying not one, but two things, for the first time, so no matter how impressive his seven-length romp was last out, it’s very tough to consider a win bet. Invictus is the same as Crudo, having only run in sprints and having just broken his maiden at seven furlongs last month. Whereas Bestfriend Rocket, Authentic Gallop and Just a Fair Shake ALL have run against winners, that can’t be said for either of these two colts. I’d love to take a stand against them entirely and will for win bets but don’t have to on exacta tickets because of the value offered by both Bestfriend Rocket and Authentic Gallop.

Handicapper Picks

Win:
We should consider win bets on both Bestfriend Rocket and on Authentic Gallop at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
Just a Fair Shake also has fair odds of 4 to 1 and can be considered at those odds, or substituted for one of the two above in the off chance one of them are below those odds.

If the odds are high enough that two of the three are above the minimum, and that should be the case, this is another good race to use the “Dutching Tool” at Amwager to get the best mathematical edge possible.

Exacta:
Box Bestfriend Rocket, Authentic Gallop and Just a Fair Shake

Bestfriend Rocket, Authentic Gallop and Just a Fair Shake over Bestfriend Rocket, Authentic Gallop, Just a Fair Shake, Crudo and Invictus

Bestfriend Rocket, Authentic Gallop, Just a Fair Shake, Crudo and Invictus over Bestfriend Rocket, Authentic Gallop and Just a Fair Shake.
Note: In playing both of the exactas just above, we can pass on playing the first bet (the three horse exacta box, because the three horse exacta box is included in both of the other two exacta bets and if any two of the top three contenders finish first and second, we win both bets.

Ellis Starr

Ellis is available @Ubercapper and is a renowned Public handicapper, blogger, speaker, fan educator of horse racing. In 2025, Ellis finished 34th in the National Handicapping Contest (NHC) earning him $14,500 in prize money!

Ellis provides analysis on key stakes races so check back often and keep an eye on his value lines and his advice on dutching your picks. Value is important when deciding who to bet and how much to bet.