Ellis Starr’s Blog

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – April 17, 2021

Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern Final Jeopardy (8 to 1 starting odds) and Empty Tomb (5 to 1 starting odds) are the keys to profit here, particularly with morning line favorite South Bend absolutely false (very vulnerable) at 5 to 2. South Bend returns from six months off, running two turns (1 1/16 miles) with no prep, in an allowance race. Although he has run in all stakes races going back to the fall of 2019, the class drop is a big sign this is just a prep for [...]

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – April 3, 2021

Commonwealth Stakes - Race 7 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:24 PM Eastern Hidden Scroll is a standout in my opinion, in spite of opening as the second choice on the morning line at 5 to 2. I just don’t get the 8 to 5 morning line favoritism afforded Flagstaff, who has won just one of his last eight starts going back to the beginning of 2020, and he was only close to winning one of the other seven when beaten a head in September. Furthermore, trainer Sadler just doesn’t seem to know what [...]

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – March 27, 2021

Cutler Bay Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:43 PM EasternAnnex is a standout and a single (the only horse to use) on pick 3 and 4 tickets, which is why I started with this race in spite of the fact he will likely be the favorite. The colt has run twice and both were visually impressive efforts, first when rallying from eighth to first in the last 3/16 of a mile then last out when rallying from sixth early and 22 lengths behind, to win by a head on [...]

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – March 20, 2021

Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:16 PM Eastern This excellent allowance race kicks of a fine three race sequence including two stakes races. The top two win contenders here are Sambracer and Tiesto in a race which the morning line favorite is 4/1, which tells us how wide open the race is. Sambracer won his career debut back in January, 2019, in a two turn race on turf at Gulfstream Park just like this one, leading from start to finish. He stayed in an off-turf race the next month, ran fourth [...]

Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – March 13, 2021

Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes – Race 6 at Laurel - Post Time 3:03 PM EasternDixie Drawl, who was very well regarded last month in the John B. Campbell Stakes at 5/2, but who ran sixth, comes back three weeks later at the nine furlong distance of his stellar nine length win just before that and I think that’s the key to posting the mild upset opening at 6/1. Winner of five of his last nine before the Campbell, Dixie Drawl is two for three at this trip and has earned all six career [...]

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