Nearctic Stakes – Race 7 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:30 PM ET Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat and Lady Alexandra are the win contenders, the first two opening at superb double digit odds out of line with their probability to win (in my opinion) and Lady Alexandra very interesting if her connections choose this spot against males over the race at Belmont. Hemp Hemp Hooray has a record of 3-3-0 in seven races. I know he's run eight times but his race at Ascot doesn't count in my opinion. He adds blinkers worn for his first three races but not his next four and his three races in blinkers consisted of two wins and a neck loss last year in the G2 Summer Stakes here at Woodbine. He's been based here since coming back from England and has finished 2nd twice in stakes against three year olds only, both…
Nearctic Stakes – Race 7 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:30 PM ET Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat and Lady Alexandra are the win contenders, the first two opening at superb double digit odds out of line with their probability to win (in my opinion) and Lady Alexandra very interesting if her connections choose this spot against males over the race at Belmont. Hemp Hemp Hooray has a record of 3-3-0 in seven races. I know he's run eight times but his race at Ascot doesn't count in my opinion. He adds blinkers worn for his first three races but not his next four and his three races in blinkers consisted of two wins and a neck loss last year in the G2 Summer Stakes here at Woodbine. He's been based here since coming back from England and has finished 2nd twice in stakes against three year olds only, both…
The world is full of people who see the glass as half empty. Sometimes it is, and we all know the Sport of Kings has more than its share of issues and things to complain about. If you are a bettor, or racing fan, the Breeders’ Cup is not one of them. Over the past few weeks, as preps were being run, we saw announcements about horses retiring, missing the Breeders’ Cup, training up to the Breeders’ Cup and committing to the Breeders’ Cup. The first three categories prompted many complaints on social media implying this year’s event is subpar. I couldn’t disagree more, and I view the glass as half full. The main reason the masses seem to be complaining is the perceived lack of big-name stars running. The Breeders’ Cup makes stars, and we are sure to recognize some new ones after the two days of racing. Stars…
Hill Prince Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:00 PM Eastern Have At It and Prioritize just finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the Better Talk Now Stakes at Saratoga, separated by a neck at odds of 7/1 and 9/1. In spite of running very well in a similar stakes, they open at 8/1 and, even more out of line, 15/1, because of the nature of how heavily Chad Brown's Raging Bull will be bet, opening at 6/5. However, these are ALL three year olds and when comparing the 98 Equibase Figure Raging Bull earned winning the Saranac Stakes to the 102 and 100 figures Have At It and Prioritize earned just five days earlier, the keys to profit in this race are obvious. Add to the mix Ride a Comet, who finished third behind Raging Bull in the Hall of Fame Stakes on August 3…
All too often we see the term “freak” thrown around in horse racing. If we truly had as many freaks as horses the term is used to describe, this would be one heck of a game. People love to throw the label around off one sole performance, especially when it is a debut or easy victory. Often these winners are not only not “freaks”, but not even the best horse in the race. To go a step further, many times the winner is not the best horse in the race and wasn’t the one who ran the most impressively. The above is one of many reasons why I like to take a step back. By taking a step back, I will watch the replay a week or so after the race so all the hype, excitement, and wagering influences die down. I have found over the years, this gives you…
Pilgrim Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern Vineyard Sound is impossible to ignore, opening at 12/1. Sent to post at 15/1 in his debut last month at Saratoga in a turf sprint (7 furlongs), the race was moved to dirt. Sent to the front shortly after the start, Vineyard Sound led set fast fractions on the lead into the stretch before settling for 2nd in a big effort while earning an 81 Equibase figure in the process. To put that in perspective, favorite Opry made his career debut one week earlier in an off-turf 7 furlong dirt sprint, finishing a close-up third with a 75 figure before breaking his maiden in the With Anticipation Stakes by improving markedly to a 92 figure running in his first turf route. There is every reason to believe Vineyard Sound can repeat that same feat as Opry…
As a long time pick 6 player I’ve known for a while the bet is changing and is not what it once was. The wager has suffered shrinking pools for years, primarily due to the increase in 50 cent multi-race wagers and many more sharks and syndicates in the water. There was a time, not that long ago, when the NYRA pick 6 pool could reach over 100k on non-carryover days. That created daily opportunities to be the only winner and take down six figures. That made it a worthwhile bet on non-carryover days, as the majority of sharks surfaced when there was a carryover. Snaking the pool we’d hit it and it is a wonderful feeling. For $30-$40k not so much, considering how tough the pick 6 is to hit. California, especially Southern California, has been the exception when it came to the pick 6. Their pool has remained…
PA Derby Champion Stakes – Race 8 at Parx - Post Time 3:41 PM Eastern Collected opens as the 6/5 favorite and is a FALSE FAVORITE, on many counts, which makes the race exceptionally playable. "Never bet a Grade 1 winner making a comeback from a layoff in a non-graded race" is an old handicapping angle in play here. A non-graded race off a layoff for a previous grade 1 winner has to be considered a throwaway race, one which of course a horse can win, but on the other hand the trainer is telegraphing this isn't important one bit. Collected needs to get in at least one race before running in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, having finished 2nd in the race last year, and needs this kind of race but coming back from eight months off, in a decent enough field, although he can win on class, it's…
The House makes the rules, and if you play you are going to play by those rules, whether you like it or not. The house has bet on you playing regardless of what the rules are, or how they interpret them. History has proven them right. Though attendance at racetracks is scarce most of the year, handle holds. This is as much a sign of the times as it is poor management and weak retention of players. All gambling outlets deal with similar issues, and all have things stacked in their favor and against you. If you ask most serious gamblers if they would play poker against a stacked deck, you would get a resounding no. Shortly thereafter, they’ll log on to their ADW, go to the track or casino, or sit down at the poker table. Essentially, they are playing against a stacked deck. The house wins. Although, pari-mutual…
Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern Lord Glitters is a classy turf horse who ran big in three straight group 1 and group 2 stakes in England this spring and summer then won a group 3 stakes last month. He's on an IDENTICAL pattern to 2015 Ricoh Woodbine Mile winner Mondialiste and that should come as no surprise as Mondialiste was trained by David O'Meara as is Lord Glitters. He gets Lasix and Jamie Spencer is in from Europe, having ridden the horse to runner-up efforts in the Queen Ann Stakes at Royal Ascot (in a field of 15) and the Summer Mile Stakes, beating his stablemate Suedois by a nose for 2nd. It must be noted Suedois came in from Europe for O'Meara to win a grade 1 race, the Shadwell Turf Mile, last year. With two of his last four…