I am pretty sure Yogi Berra was talking baseball when he said “90% of this game is half mental.” I always understood Yogi and had a similar way of thinking. In racing 90% of this game is at least 50% knowing how to bet. Handicapping is unquestionably vital, but if you do not know how to bet and structure wagers effectively and efficiently, you will get swallowed as fast as a horse who goes 44 to the half in a mile and a quarter race. I have written about my philosophy, which I often call a kill-shot, many times. I have bet the way I do now for a long time, but it also took me a long time to develop both the strategy and discipline it requires. While it may not be the only way to beat the game today, I am certain it is as good as any.…
There are a lot of people, including some fine horsemen, who believe jockeys do not matter all that much. Allen Jerkens was as good as it gets and was known to give all riders a shot and felt anyone could win with the right horse. Theoretically, that is a true statement. However, my years of wagering professionally have taught me riders make a world of difference to a bettor looking to beat the game consistently. Sure, one can argue the better riders get the better mounts, thus they win a high percentage of races. Another true statement but talent earns them those mounts. Even if an agent or connections get them the mounts in the beginning, to keep them you have to be able to ride. Not all riders are created equal. They are pound for pound among the toughest athletes in the world, but they are athletes in a…
Allied Forces Stakes – Race 4 at Belmont Park - Post Time 3:04 PM Eastern Gidu is one of three to potentially get the pace scenario of his dreams, as Reed Kan (on the rail), Weather Report, Colonel Tom and World of Trouble have earned 12 of their 13 career wins combined LEADING FROM START TO FINISH. Reed Kan and Weather Report don't look as fast as the other two but drawn inside of World of Trouble and Colonel Tom, they will be sent hard, and it will only take two of the four to sizzle early to set up Gidu and the other two horses that can sit off the pace early. Gidu's last start is irrelevant as it was on dirt after seven races on grass so back on the grass and with a field high (BY FAR) 114 Equibase Figure to run back to, earned here at…
Saranac Stakes – Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:39 PM Eastern March to the Arch is one of three main win contenders, but as he opens at 10/1 compared to 7/2 and 2/1 for the other two we have to start with him. Winner of the Toronto Cup Stakes last out on 7/28, the gelding has now run three "A" races in a row, the last yielding a 102 Equibase figure which can be improved upon 2nd off a seven week layoff. That was a KEY race as the 2nd and 3rd finishers both came back to win stakes out of the race, one of the wins coming on the turf here at Saratoga and the other in Canada. With Jose Ortiz aboard this gelding has every right to add to his strong career record to date of 3 wins and two runner-up finishes in his six races…
Sword Dancer Stakes – Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:49 PM Eastern Glorious Empire finished in a dead heat with Channel Maker last month in the Bowling Green Stakes over the course. Yes, the course was soft but considering the gelding won on firm turf prior to that there isn't a concern about him repeating the effort on dry ground. Leparoux was up for the 2nd time in that win, the other also a win, last July and most importantly ALSO at SARATOGA on the turf. It's just silly that Channel Maker opens at 5/1 here while Glorious Empire opens at 10/1 and with the rail Leparoux can put the Glorious Empire on the lead, go slow, and kick home for his second graded stakes win in a row. Another horse at incorrect high odds is Highland Sky, who won a classified allowance race at Belmont in June…
Alabama Stakes – Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:40 PM Eastern Talk Veuve to Me finished second to Monomoy Girl by two lengths in the Acorn Stakes on 6/9, earning a 99 Equibase figure. Midnight Bisou finished second to Monomoy Girl by three lengths in the CCA Oaks on July 22 earning a figure five points lower (94). On that count, Talk Veuve to Me is the faster horse. Midnight Bisou has been off a month, which is fine, as Talk Veuve to Me has been, but one of the big differences between the two fillies is Talk Veuve to Me improved MARKEDLY off her Acorn effort to crush the field in the Indiana Oaks by nearly five lengths on 7/14, earning a field high 102 Equibase figure in the process. On that count, Talk Veuve to Me is the faster horse. Ridden out to that easy win…
So much has changed in the Thoroughbred industry in the past 25 years or so, the least of which is not training a race horse. Training race horses still has some basic fundamentals, and remains a crafty art, but it is very different than it was years ago. To people who have worked or spent time on the backside, and have been around the game awhile, the changes are obvious. To those who are newcomers, or who have spent their racetrack time on the frontside, the changes are less apparent. Race horses are athletes and have more in common with human athletes than meets the eye. While true they run naturally, when in the wild they normally run straight and in spurts. They have to be coached and taught to run in circles, and at different speeds and paces. Like a coach, some trainers are better than others. The good…
Flaming Page Stakes – Race 6 at Woodbine - Post Time 3:38 PM Eastern It always nice when the reason for a turnaround in a horse's form jumps off the page, and so it is with Giovannna Blues, who took blinkers off after six clunkers wearing them and who rallied from last of nine, into a horribly slow pace, to get 2nd at 20/1 last month in a turf marathon like this one. Pino was up for the first time and follows the mare up from Maryland for Dickinson. The mare earned the BEST last race Equibase figure in the field, 99, and should improve 2nd off a two month layoff as well so opening at 6 to 1 is the key to profit here. Bets: Giovanna Blues to win at 2 to 1 or higher. Exactas: Giovanna Blues over Daring Duchess, Creative Thinking, Lottie and Liberty Kitten. Also, play…
Note: With the potential for awful weather at Saratoga which may lead to off-turf or soft-turf races, I have decided to focus on some of the wide open races on West Virginia Derby day at Mountaineer, plus one race on the dirt at Saratoga. Check the very end for a couple of bonus races picks as well. Senator Robert C. Byrd Stakes – Race 6 at Mountaineer - Post Time 4:25 PM Eastern Heartwood, Awesome Gent and Colonel Sharp are the three win contenders in my opinion, based on a very fast and contested early pace courtesy of Sevier and Shadow Tracer, drawn next to each other on the outside in the gate. It makes no sense whatsoever Balandeen is the morning line favorite off one win this year, at Will Rogers Downs, and the 4/1 starting odds on Line Judge, although likely correct as Amoss trains, is good because…
If you missed the 70’s and 80’s in horse racing, you truly missed some glory years when the Sport of Kings was so much more than what it has been reduced to today. If you missed those years, it is hard to put in perspective. However, imagine almost every Saturday having a “huge card” and major day feel to it. The track was crowded, even during the week, and there was almost always a buzz in the air. Saratoga was the August place to be and the premier meet in the country. At 24 days, or 4 short weeks long, the racing was the most competitive in the world. It’s where everyone who was anyone in the game was, and where they wanted to win. Claiming races were few and far between and the optional claimer was not even on the racing secretaries’ radar yet. There was no need for…