Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship – Race 8 at Aqueduct – Post time 3:20 PM Eastern Time High percentage trainer Jason Servis saddles a pair of very tough runners in Rainbow Heir and Summation Time, opening at 10/1 and 12/1, respectfully, and I'll play them as if they were a coupled entry and bet them both. Rainbow Heir is 12 for 29 in his career but has run on turf just eight times. Seven of those came since Servis took over his training in July of last year. Since then, Rainbow Heir has won five of 10 races, missing by inches in three others. He comes back off a short layoff and won a stakes on turf like this one the last time he took a bit of time off. It's a BIG sign Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call because Ortiz rode the horse just one before, when he was…
Gio Ponti Stakes – Race 8 at Aqueduct – Post time 3:20 PM Eastern Time On the heels of a nice profit last week on the turf at Aqueduct on this blog with Fire Away winning and Monster Bea finishing second, this stakes caught my attention because Fuel the Bern opens at 12/1. Racing for the tough Clement stable to start his career, he finished fast while green from 10th to 3rd in his career debut in October 2016, on the turf, then ran on dirt in November and went on the bench. Returning in September, Fuel the Bern ran poorly on dirt when nearly not finishing so was dropped into a 40K maiden claimer on turf. He won that race with authority by three and one-half lengths in a field of 11 and was immediately snatched up by solid trainer Gargan, perhaps with this turf stakes restricted to just…
Artie Schiller Stakes – Race 8 at Aqueduct – Post time 3:47 PM Eastern Time Monster Bea ran big last time out on 10/13 at Belmont, better than his 4th place finish makes it appear. He had to wait for room at a critical stage and when clear was closing fast but it was too late. His race before that was a graded stakes in California at a distance (1 3/8 miles) way too far but he’s running at a mile for the 2nd time in a row and three before last at Belmont he missed by a neck in an allowance race with a stakes quality 109 Equibase figure he bettered last out to 112. Last summer, Monster Bea posted the 12/1 upset in the Oceanside Stakes at Del Mar and I think he’s sitting on the same kind of effort here. Fire Away finished in front of Monster…
Smart Halo Stakes – Race 5 at Laurel – Post time 2 PM Eastern Time We start a sequence of some very good betting races with a sprint for 2 year old fillies. The win contenders are Jehozacat, Pacific Gale and Take Charge Paula and we'll be playing doubles and pick 3 tickets using all three. Jehozacat cuts back from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs after leading at the 6 furlong mark then settling for 2nd at the longer trip last month. That race is already a KEY RACE as the winner won back when victorious in a stakes and the 6th place finisher came back to win as well so if this filly can run the same race to 6 furlongs as she did to the six furlong mark last month she can win. Pacific Gale won the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth at this trip in September then was…
Juvenile Turf Sprint – Race 3 at Del Mar – Post time 11:20 AM Pacific Time, 2:20 PM Eastern Time I probably could go on and on with listing contenders in this full field of 12 two year olds horse going 5 furlongs on turf, every one having run in a stakes race in North America or Europe. However, I will have to give Sound and Silence a bit of an edge here based on the number of races he's run (8), his record (4 for 8) and the fact he won the Group 3 Prix Eclipse Stakes in September, with a runner-up effort I a stakes prior to that and after that. With class in his favor and having run four "A" races in a row, three at this 5 furlong trip, Sound and Silence could have what it takes to win this year's Qatar Juvenile Turf Sprint. Next…
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf – Race 6 at Del Mar – Post time 2:25 Pacific, 5:25 Eastern September, one of two fillies from the potent barn of Aiden O'Brien, ran the best race of any horse in this field last month in England when a nose shy of victory in the Group 1 Bet365 Mile Stakes. She improved significantly off her 3rd place effort behind Happily one month earlier in another Group 1 stakes, that one at 7 furlongs, so the mile appears to be her better trip. In the Bet365 Mile, September was making up ground by leaps and bounds after waiting for room with about a furlong out and jockey Heffernan should have her motoring past most if not all of these in the stretch today. Rushing Fall is the North American filly with as big of a late kick as September but she's only run twice compared…
For more races this weekend, including the Awad Stakes (Race 10 on Saturday) at Belmont and some pick 3/pick 4 strategies, plus a couple of races on Sunday, October 29, listen to the Key Races & Bets Podcast at ubercapper.podbean.com or download the Podbean app from the Apple App Store or Google Play Store for Android. Athenia Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont – Post time 3:43 PM ET Thundering Sky opens at ridiculously high 15/1 odds given she just won a $100K stakes, albeit restricted and more importantly won the $200K Pebbles Stakes last year. That win last time out came in her 4th start of the year and now that she's rediscovered winning form she has every right to run big again. Behind her in that last race were multiple stakes winner Bar of Gold, who won her next start taking the Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes, and…
With the advent of Breeders’ Cup 2017 looming, I think it’s important to remember that handicapping is only part of the process of a successful day at the races. If you are not spending much time structuring your wagers over the two days, then as a horseplayer, you are doing yourself a disservice. Here are some points to keep in mind: 1. Know your bankroll. For Breeders’ Cup, the number of betting options can be overwhelming. Appropriate and partition your bankroll for BOTH Friday and Saturday. Worst case scenario, how much are you willing to lose? We all want to win but be disciplined enough to know when NOT to run to the ATM. 2. Find your strongest opinions over the two days and work backwards from there. If you can single a horse in a race, you need to maximize that opinion. Do you hammer an exacta or trifecta?…
In addition to this blog, you can get analysis and recommended wagers for other races this weekend on my Key Races & Bets Podcast at ubercapper.podbean.com This weekend's podcast will be published on Saturday morning and contain some of these races and in addition I will be tackling a couple of race on Sunday so please listen in. Ticonderoga Stakes – Race 4 at Belmont – Post time 2:01 PM ET Broken Border and Feeling Bossy are both trained by very high percentage (nearly 30% wins in 2017) Jason Servis, and if a top conditioner like Servis thinks both can win I won't argue so although they are not coupled for betting purposes (having different owners) I will consider them as an entry and bet them both. Broken Border just won at 7 furlongs on the Belmont turf course, her THIRD STRAIGHT win on the course, with just a loss…
Saturday - October 14 Keeneland Race (9) G1 Queen Elizabeth II A highly contentious race that is stacked with a full field of eleven three-year-olds looking to take grade one honors. While the Brown team of Uni and New Money Honey form an imposing tandem, I will try to beat them both with #2 Proctor’s Ledge(9-2). The daughter of Ghost Zapper has reeled off two graded stakes victories in row and I believe she still has room to improve. She will have to in order to beat #7 Wuheida (4-1) who ran 4th just beaten a half a length in the G1 Prix de l’Opera at Chantilly two weeks ago. Wuheida has run five times in her career, winning two, but the class is there as four of those were group one races. Of Brown’s pair I prefer #10 Uni who I believe has gotten better in each of her…