Turf Dash Stakes – Race 6 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:15 PM EasternOf the three morning line favorites – Extragavant Kid (5/2), Justaholic (3/1) and Faction Cat (7/2), Justaholic has a slight edge, followed by Extragavant Kid. I’ll take a stand against Faction Cat because I’m not sure he’s running nor am I sure trainer Baxter has much intent. The reason is intuitive, noting Baxter has Pay Any Price in the race and Morales is named to ride but even at the time final entries came out there was no jockey named on Faction Cat. As to Pay Any Price, he’s likely to zip out fast from the rail and is a need-the-lead type who won his only start on the Tampa turf, but that was in 2017 and he folded badly last in a similar stakes in January after leading early so I’m not interested here.…
One of the most common mistakes I see handicappers make is assuming a horse will run similar or even exactly how they ran in their last start.Horses are not machines, and they don’t run the same every time they race. All too often people look at the past performances or the replay of a horse's last start and conclude that’s what they will see again.I will be the first to agree horses, in general, are more consistent today than in the past. I believe drugs, legal and otherwise are a large part of that but even given that they don’t repeat every performance.Handicapping comes down to predictably and being to see in advance what will or at least will likely happen. If it was as easy as looking at the entrants' last race we would all win a lot more often.Pace changes. Class changes. Competition changes. Conditions change. Distances change.…
John B. Campbell Stakes – Race 4 at Laurel - Post Time 1:50 PM EasternWait for It is one of three horses who, combined, have the bulk of the probability to win in my opinion. He opens at 5 to 1 whereas the other two, Someday Jones and Monongahela, opens at 5/2 and 2/1. That makes Wait for It the one to write about first and to consider betting on to win, particularly as he gets the rail to save ground and as he's making his fourth start and third route start after coming back from five months off. The pattern is easily identifiable, as he earned a 100 Equibase figure in his comeback, than 111 and finally 113 when winning a classified allowance race around two turns at Parx last month, from the rail no less. Flattered when runner-up Senior Investment (who is in this race) came back to…
Today is the day. You proudly strut yourself to your favorite racetrack. You know your stuff and you’re sure of your picks. You know the odds and place your bets with confidence. The race begins, the anticipation builds, the finish line roars and you are congratulated by your friends when you walk out with cash in your pocket. Everyone wants to be a winner, but the reality is that most of us do not fully understand the intricacies of horse racing odds. Sure, placing a bet is easy enough but that is why most race goers walk out with less money than they came in with. Are you one of them?Are you just placing bets blind and hoping for the best? It’s completely fine if you are. We won’t judge. We made this guide just for you! Here we will explain and simplify horse racing odds to make betting easier.…
A stab to me is not a shot in the dark or a play without some logic and reasoning behind it. It is when I go for one horse over some others I like because of a feeling, or something less scientific than just hard-core handicapping. In some races and instances, I can’t separate the contenders. At times I will use them all in multi-race bets. Other times I will come up with an angle that favors one over the others. Sometimes I will take a stab. At Tampa in the Sam Davis I will be taking a stab. I think the favorite, Independence Hall, who many will have their eyes on as a possible Kentucky Derby horse, is talented and does not absolutely need the lead to win. That said, his best and most recent races have come with him on the engine, and I think he is close to or…
Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes - Race 8 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:59 PM EasternGot Stormy opens as the 4/5 favorite and although the race isn’t playable from the perspective of a win bet or even other exotics there’s value in the pick 5 which starts here because it becomes a pick 4 with a strong single (the only horse to play) to begin the sequence. She’s a multiple grade 1 winner in a grade 3 race and although she hasn’t run since winning the Matriarch Stakes in December she fired to win last August off a three month layoff. Hopefully we can make a decent profit in the pick 5, or at least more than we would make betting her to win.BetsPick 5: Race 8- Got Stormy Race 9 – Lucrezia, Two Sixty, Motu Race 10 – March to the Arch, Devamani, Caribou Club Race 11 –…
With the Derby preps in full swing, many of us are asking where is this year’s winner? The obvious answer is probably somewhere in Bob Baffert’s barn at Santa Anita. This is horse racing however and things are never that obvious. Or are they? On Saturday we get to see the Holy Bull and Swale at Gulfstream. We also will see the Withers at Aqueduct and the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. Is the 2020 Kentucky Derby winner running tomorrow? It certainly is possible, and it doesn’t even have to be in one of the races mentioned. That is what is so great about this game. Stars can come from so many different places, and you never know when one may emerge. It would not shock me if a horse in the Dania Beach on the grass transfers to dirt down the line and becomes a consideration for the first Saturday…
With the rather late scratches of the first two choices in the Pegasus, Omaha Beach and Spun to Run, we are left with somewhat of a handicapping puzzle. This is further complicated by the horses running without medications they are used to racing with. Lasix is the obvious drug that stands out, but there are others. Just look at Spun to Run. Had it not been for the ban on medications, he probably would have been treated for his skin breakout and been in the gate Saturday afternoon. We are going to keep this short and sweet today. I thought Omaha Beach would be a tough short-priced favorite to beat in the Pegasus. I did not like Spin to Run, especially with the late choice of Castellano to ride. I did not think he fit the horse all that well. I think Spun to Run needs to be hustled to the…
W.L. McKnight Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:12 PM EasternThis McKnight Stakes starts a sequence of three stakes races with a world of possibilities, even the Pegasus World Cup (dirt), Race 12 after the scratches of Omaha Beach and Spun to Run. This race brings together a field of 12 at the marathon mile and one-half trip and many have run at this distance or longer, some pretty well. However, there are slight separators in my opinion such that there are two groups of contenders here. The first group, consisting of Salute the Colonel, Red Knight and Spooky Channel, gets slight preference over the second group, consisting of Temple, Apreciado and Cross Border. Excellent marathon turf trainer Maker has four here in Apreciado, Carom, Cross Border and Temple and that muddies things up a bit because he’s very good at spotting horses for these types…
I always thought the great equalizer between sports betting and horse racing was value. With horses, you can go after wagers that return multiple times on the dollar. In sports, you are usually looking at close to even money unless you go after underdog money lines which coincidentally is my preference.Lately, it is becoming more and more difficult to find value in horse racing. You are lucky to get over the parlay on multi-race wagers when it used to be a given. Three or four times the parlay was the norm. That made those bets worthwhile. Today, between the syndicates, sharks, and low denominations you are up against it. It’s a lousy feeling hitting a pick 4 or 5 that should pay 4K and it comes back $950. We see this more and more and it is not likely to change soon.Adjusting and adapting is absolutely a prerequisite to beating…