Race 7 at Monmouth - Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern   This wide open maiden race leads into the Iselin Stakes (Race 10) and offers profit opportunity, not only in doubles to race 10, but in this race itself. Rumors of Violence ran very well when second last month in a race scheduled for turf but run on the main track, which was his first start after five months off. Trainer Dickinson, always high percentage on few starters, is 6 for 13 on the year, including two for three at the meeting, BOTH ridden by Gallardo, who rides this gelding who should improve nicely second off the layoff.   Zieg may be second most likely in my opinion but as he opens at 15/1 he must be played as well. He improved nicely second time out in April to be third at seven furlongs and is absolutely bred to adore the turf. That…
Ginger Punch Stakes - Race 5 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:49 PM Eastern   With Faith N Hope stretching out and likely to go for the early lead, running as fast or faster than she usually does, which is to say getting the opening half-mile in about 47, the race falls to the closers. Those are made up two distinct groups. The first group are horses like Aquemini, who has a career record of 3-10-5 which in my mind clearly states she doesn’t know how to win or is always closing too late to do so, as exampled by her most recent race when 18 lengths back early and second, beaten a half-length, at the end. Another in that group is Bitacora, with a career mark on turf of 4-8-1, her last win coming in this race one year ago and winless in eight races since although she has finished second twice…
A few years ago, a two year old named Caledonia Red barely made it to my radar in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in my early work. By the time the race came up, I made and cashed a nice bet. It was a true track bias I recognized that got me there. A true track bias is a gift that just keeps giving. Not only can you capitalize on one race day if you catch it, but you can bet with an edge on those who ran well against it and downgrade those who ran with it. The whole key is knowing a true track bias from a false or perceived one. A bias can mean different things to different handicappers. I define a track bias this way: A trend in the track that helps horses run better than they would have if they ride it and worse then they…
   Easy Goer Stakes - Race 3 at Belmont - Post Time 12:47 PM Eastern   Personally I plan to bet BOTH Majid and Grumps Little Tots to win if above 3/1, and I plan to use ALL SIX if I play the double, pick 3 or pick 4 involving this race as a case can be made for every entrant. However, Majid could be a “lone front runner” in this short field if Saez takes advantage of his early speed. He’s won three in a row, all since moving to the Rodriguez barn, the last a one turn mile over the track no different from this one mile and one-sixteenth trip around one turn. Saez rode him to a wire-to-wire win last month and the effort earned a 96 Equibase figure which is competitive with nearly EVERY horse in the field in most of their races. The exception is…
Between Friday and Saturday at Belmont, there will be an abundance of opportunities to go after a score. While this is great and what most of us wait for, it helps to have a solid plan of attack. All those opportunities and alluring races can prompt many to spread their bankrolls out to keep them in action, but if you are looking to take down a big score that might not be the best way to go. It’s not how I play it. These two days are when your money management skills get out to the test. If you don’t have them your bankroll can be put to rest. Whether your bankroll for the weekend is $100, $1000, or $10,000 it doesn’t matter. You have to apply it in the best way to capitalize on your strongest opinion. Of course, you have to be right. I play more aggressively than…
  Connaught Cup Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:00 PM Eastern   Savage Battle is a lightly raced five year old with just 15 races under his belt, nine of those turf sprints. He has a fantastic record of 4-1-2 in those nine races, including a runner-up effort in the Colonel Power Stakes at Fair Grounds in February and he may be coming in under the radar opening at 8 to 1 here. It’s a big sign he’s live as Patrick Husbands gets on and the horse earned a strong 108 Equibase figure winning a turf sprint in January before earning a 106 figure in the stakes in February, with those figures competitive with the best in here. He comes from mid-pack and in this race with there likely to be a sizzling early pace battle he could get first run on the tiring pacesetters and…
Last week I saw an interesting conversation on social media between a few good handicappers. What I found interesting was that they seemed to do an awful lot of work and research to come up with an angle I have been following since the early 90’s and have made some really nice hits. At the end of the day, you get paid the same no matter how you arrived at the winner, but it seemed to me they were complicating something I learned long ago was relatively simple. It’s no secret horses mature. They are athletes. A two year old might be the equivalent of say an early teenager if we compare equine to human. An early teenage athlete will get stronger and faster as they arch upward towards their prime. A horse is no different. Regardless of which speed figures you use, Beyers, Brisnet, Ragozins, Timeform, whatever, a newly…

Focus

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I have talked about many aspects of your game and the tools needed in your arsenal to be successful betting on the Sport of Kings. Today seems like s good day to discuss one thing you need that often gets overlooked. Focus. Even if you know what to do and how to approach beating this very hard skill game, if you lose focus, you will almost certainly fail. So many players today get caught up in social media while they are gambling. People go to the races and behave like it is a social event. That’s fine if this is recreational to you. However, if you are playing to win and think you can spend hours on social media, or like you are at a catered affair, then I wanna bet that in the long run you are losing, donating, depositing or whatever you’d like to call it. Focus. Today,…
  Greenwood Stakes - Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern   Although Pink Lloyd loves to win races, more importantly races at this basic six furlong trip at Woodbine, being as he’s 13 for 14 at the distance, I feel he’s not the lock his likely 1 to 5 favoritism suggests he is. At the end of last season, Pink Lloyd lost two in a row at prohibitively low odds and he has a bad habit of hopping in the air at the start, or breaking inward or outward, basically anything other than straight. His last three stakes wins earned him 106, 103 and 105 Equibase figures, not standouts by any means compared to a few others in here. As such, I think we must use him on exacta and trifecta tickets although it might be best to try to beat him entirely for the best…
  Race 2 at Pimlico - Post Time 11:05 AM Eastern   Although race two on the Preakness day card isn’t one of the many great stakes races, it’s a KEY BETTING Race in my opinion owing to the fact He’s One Wild Dude opens at 12/1 and Sir Brahms opens at 6 to 1. He’s One Wild Dude returned from four months off last month and ran very well in spite of likely being a little less than 100% fit. He battled for the lead early before tiring to third but should run a lot better second off the layoff, particularly as his current trainer claimed him in December before giving him time off and had the horse in his care previously, with He’s One Wild Dude winning three times for the trainer, all on turf and all with jockey Russell riding as he’s doing today. Considering the trainer…