Forward Gal Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:07 PM Eastern Frond and Feedback stick out against the other seven in this race, with Frond the much better win bet opening at 12/1 compared to 6 to 5 for Feedback. Feedback won impressively in her debut but that was back in August and she hasn’t been seen since so perhaps there were issues. Chad Brown wins at an above average rate off these kinds of layoffs but it’s a big jump from a maiden field to stakes so when the five and one-half months is added it’s tough to consider a win bet on Feedback at prohibitively low odds. The win came at 6 ½ furlongs so she should handle the seven furlong trip and she should be physically stronger as a three year old. On the other hand, Frond won at seven furlongs in her…
I always get a laugh when I see someone make what seems to be an outrageous or bold claim or accusation on social media regarding horse racing, and some expert talking head dismisses it as preposterous. If history has taught us anything, it is things do happen, and often the worst is true. At times the reality is even worse than what we imagine. Add money, lots of it, into the equation and you have a scenario where nothing alleged is really that preposterous at all. Forgive the redundancy from previous articles, but if I were to ask you to believe that not that long ago people were betting pick 6’s after say four of the six races were run, and doing this on the Breeders’ Cup, you would probably have laughed at me. Can you imagine the expert industry talking heads response? I’d be dismissed as a crazy no…
Fred W. Hooper Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:38 PM Eastern Unbridled Juan ALWAYS shows up, which is all we can ask when wagering on a horse. First or second in four of six since returning from an eight month layoff last May, Unbridled Juan, who opens at 8 to 1, ran three "A" races in a row last fall, all stakes, earning 108, 114 and 106 Equibase figures which are on par with lower odds horses in the field. In 11 career one-turn races (like this one), Unbridled Juan has a record of 5-4-2. He's won at Gulfstream and Cintron, up for his last three starts, rides him again. I can't find a single knock and so I'm hopeful we can start today's series of races out with a nice overlay winner. Before winning on 12/7, Breaking Lucky had not won in 12 starts…
 I think there are just some things related to playing the horses that come with time and experience. You can’t substitute anything for watching and learning the game by attending the races and studying the sport. There are no cliff notes or shortcuts. Does it mean you will win all the time? Of course not. Some players never win. Does it give you an edge over a novice or newcomer? Absolutely, if you’re an astute player and student. One of the things that have come to me over time is looking at a field and knowing two things almost off the bat. One is the likely or approximate post time odds. The other is the odds a horse should be, based on their likelihood of winning. It just comes to me after looking at the past performances and more times than not I’ll be spot on. Yes, I look at…
Pasco Stakes - Race 7 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:10 PM Eastern It appears Win Win Win and Cave Run are the only two which can win this year's Pasco Stakes, but they open as the morning line favorite at 5/2 and the third choice on the morning line at 7/2 so there may not be a lot of value on win bets. Therefore the main play in this race is a pick 3 to race nine, the Gasparilla Stakes. Still, there may be opportunity for a low odds overlay win bet. Cave Run, who opens at the higher odds of the two contenders at 7/2, has a slight edge over Win Win Win as he won over the track. The win came in his only start, on 12/15, and he not only showed a lot of maturity in victory when relaxing in third in the early…
We have all heard the saying if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. There was a time not really all that long ago when racing was not a broken sport, but somehow the industry tried to fix it, and that left us with what we have today. For those who have only been interested or exposed to the game for say the last 15 years or so, you really don’t know what you missed, and if you like the game today, you’d have probably loved it back a ways. When I first started writing Past the Wire, I made an effort to stay positive and focus on the ups. Always one to call it as I see it that has become increasingly challenging and at times just difficult. I’ve talked and written about many of the issues plaguing the Sport of Kings recently, and I won’t be making any shopping…
Is a tip ever a tip at the racetrack? If you ask a hundred bettors, I think you might be surprised at the assortment of answers that you get. I’ll come back to that. Most of you who know me know I spent many years going to the racetrack every day, without missing a beat, first in New York, and then in Florida. I’m talking decades. I once broke up with a girlfriend, or I should say she broke up with me because I had to bail on her sister’s wedding. Yes, she was in the bridal party, and it was a big deal. That said her sister chose to get married on the first Saturday in May. I did not miss many days. For several seasons at the Gulfstream meet my Dad and I sat with a dear friend of ours Joe T., may they both rest in peace.…
Tropical Turf Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:45 PM Eastern Heart to Heart might win. He might not. Opening at 4/5 we have incentive to take the latter opinion and try to beat him. Although his best effort can win this grade 3 stakes, he is coming back from three months off and was badly beaten in his 2018 debut last year at 3/5 over the course. He's an 8 year old now and we all know where he can be found after the gate opens, in front, but there are some serious questions of condition and his ability to win off the layoff. With a vulnerable favorite the race becomes very playable, starting with Doctor Mounty, who opens at 10/1. The jockey change from Boyce to Castellano is HUGE (no knock on Boyce) and the horse's winning effort in the similar grade 3 Baltimore…
Ginger Brew Stakes - Race 5 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:05 PM Eastern What a Beaut won her only start, four weeks ago at this identical 7 1/2 furlong trip on turf. All eight (who are entered for turf) are newly turned three year old fillies and she opens high at 12/1 because she is the most lightly raced in the field, but that doesn't mean she can't win because she showed a lot of maturity when establishing good early position in third early, five lengths off the leader, and getting up to win by a neck in a field of 12. Lopez rides back and vast improvement is possible off the experience of a race. The 90 Equibase figure earned in her debut is the same as favorite Pivottina earned in her U.S. debut last September and not that far from the 96 earned when third in…
I have always felt if you can’t say something better yourself, then use a good quote. Robert De Niro in Taxi Driver comes to mind for this one. It’s a classic film, and the quote is “you talkin' to me.” It’s a great scene and line, and I could not do it justice here. That said I think we can put the quote to some good use and it definitely fits. At least for me. Right up front, I’ll say I am not going to call out anyone individually. No names. No networks or racetracks either. If you know who I am referring too that is great but no names. I can sort of, but not really, give some major networks a pass for their coverage of our classic races. Sure it is terrible for true players and Racetrackers, but at least there are some casual once a year people…