I’m often in the minority with many of my opinions on racing. I view that as a positive. Two of those areas are small fields and entries. I prefer horses owned even in part or trained by the same trainer coupled. I also don’t automatically frown on short fields and Saturday at Santa Anita is a perfect example of why. The Santa Anita Derby and Gold Cup cards are light on horses. Sure, that telegraphs some problems with the racing in California right now, but for the bettor it is not the horrible scenario people on social media are whining and complaining about. I don’t mind it at all. Of course, big competitive fields are better and can lead to big payoffs. Small fields do not eliminate those opportunities. They just make it more challenging in a sense. You can’t spread all over the place like a fisherman hoping to…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May 30, 2020Westchester Stakes - Race 7 at Belmont Park - Post Time 4:32 PM EasternChad Brown has been loaded waiting for racing to restart and it seems like he has more than one horse in every race he runs in. In this race he has a pair in Monongahela and Payne and both look very strong. Monongahela is one of many horses moving from suspended Servis. He’s not been seen since 2/15 but that was a huge effort when beaten a neck by multiple winner Alwaysmining. Two before that he won a 100K stakes strongly with a sweeping move. The 120 and 113 Equibase figures from those races are the best in the field this year and I have to think he’s going to run huge as a fresh horse with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. This one-turn mile and one-sixteenth…
Often I am asked how long I will follow or stick with a horse I have wagered on that didn’t win. While I will almost certainly be aware and “watch” them the next few times they run, that doesn’t automatically mean I will wager in them. A few months ago at Gulfstream I thought the Pegasus Turf race came down to two horses. Zulu Alpha and Without Parole. I went with Without Parole. He had such a horrendous trip that day under Frankie Dettori he made his way into my trip notes service Tracking Trips and I was pretty sure he was sitting on a peak or at least a big effort. You can learn more about Tracking Trips and see what it offers here. When Without Parole finally surfaced it was last week in the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita. Sure I was excited, and sensed a potential score,…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May 30, 2020Honeymoon Stakes - Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern/ 3:30 PacificParkour may have a significant edge over the other eight fillies in the field as she is very likely the “lone front runner” in the group and that makes her the one to beat. In her third career start last December, first on turf and first around two-turns, Parkour established a clear lead before the field had rounded the first turn and went into cruising mode, giving no other horse in the field of 12 a chance to get close while coasting home by two and one-half lengths. She never made the lead in the Blue Norther in her next start but after a three month rest returned to win even more easily on March 22. In that race, Mike Smith rode for the first…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 23 2020Race 4 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5:07 PM Eastern/ 2:07 PacificTiz Wonderfully starts out a decent sequence of races including two stakes, opening at 5/1. Even if she goes to post at half those odds she’s a KEY BET on the day as she sticks out. Not only does she lead the field in career wins with 4 (in 10 dirt starts) she just beat “open” (not restricted claimers) so this move into allowance ranks for California Breds is NOT a raise in class. Her last race 95 Equibase figure, earned at this distance over the track, tops the field, and she’s got the ability to win leading from start to finish or to sit in third or second early and take over. Bets: Win: Tiz Wonderfully to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more, a…
I have often stated my thoughts on hedging. My stance is not a popular one, and it has been ridiculed often on social media. I rarely If ever hedge.If you are playing to beat the game, one thing that is essential, and there are many, is to minimize the loss column and maximize the win column. Hedging may save a bet and a day, but over time it will cut into the win column. I don’t bet against myself or my opinion.There have been times where I have been alive in the last leg of a multi-race wager with a few horses. Obviously, these are the ones I chose. I chose them for a reason. Even if I stand to win good money with any of them and can mathematically assure a win by placing win bets on all the other horses, I generally won’t. If I wanted those horses,…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 16 2020Echo Eddie Stakes - Race 6 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:06 PM Eastern/ 3:06 PacificAlthough Big Sweep (a filly entered against males in this race) won her career debut and only start leading from start to finish, there is evidence she is not a need-the-lead type and won’t get caught up in the likely early pace battle between Stir the Pot, Project Leader and Bettor Trip Nick. Outside of that trio in the gate, Big Sweep may find herself in a great spot in fourth as the field moves down the backstretch, enabling her to take over on the turn and hold off any closers. In that debut Big Sweep earned a field high 99 Equibase Speed Figure and should improve in her second career start. It’s interesting to note trainer Glatt entered her in the race instead…
Two-year-old races are underway again. With more tracks starting to run, and barns getting to wait a tad longer with their babies, we should see some solid baby races with lots of opportunities. A lot of people shy away from baby races as there is not as much information to go on. I see that as an edge. Less can be more.Here are some of the things I look at when studying baby races. When you have a field full of first-time starters, you have to have some things you can identify which you value. I have several.The old sayings follow the money, or they knew, hold up pretty well in baby races. Fast horses generate a buzz on the backside, and that equates to tote action. The money shows on babies that can run a good percentage of the time. You don't have to blindly play every baby favorite…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 9 2020Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:30 PM EasternHoney Won’t gets a BIG jockey change from Meneses to Saez after a poor sixth place effort to similar last month. That followed two and one-half months off and a sharp five length win over the course. A lightly raced four year old, he’s won three of 12 on grass but more importantly two were routes at Gulfstream and with a rock solid 109 Equibase Speed Figure effort, best in the field, to run back to from the 1/26/20 effort he could be the one to beat. Shootin the Breeze also makes his second start off a layoff, finishing fourth both before and after the rest. That last effort with a 100 figure, combined with Rosario getting on, gives him a good shot to improve and be a strong factor…
What do you do when you see a horse like Charlatan in a race like the first division of Saturday’s split Arkansas Derby? If you don’t think he is the highly probable winner, then you don’t have all that much of a problem other than coming up with the horse you think will beat him. If you do like him, are you willing to take considerably less than even money on him when logically there are some questions? He’s stretching out. He’s running in a new state over a new track. He’s moving into a stake. Yet to most, he looks awfully good as a likely winner.So the question remains if you like him, what do you do?Many bettors will simply not take that short a price on any horse. I can understand that and even relate to it. Personally, I don’t have that “rule” to my play. I adapt…