Friday, 28 June 2019 14:29

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, June 29

King Edward Stakes - Race 6 at Woodbine - Post Time 2:53 PM Eastern

There are five horses that have some chance to win this year’s King Edward, but the best value comes in the form of Savage Battle, who opens at 20/1. I may admit to being a bit less objective than I should be, having picked him to run well in the Connaught Cup on June 1, but from that race he made my horses-to-watch list with the comment “Loaded at 14/1 and NOWHERE TO RUN FINAL 8th.” When I got email earlier this week he was entered in this race, I went back to watch the replay to insure I saw the same thing I saw weeks ago, and I did. The head-on is excruciating to watch, as he was bottled up with a wall of horses in front of him. I think the jockey hoped one of the horses would come off the rail, which never happened, and so instead of wheeling Savage Battle out and losing ground there was nothing he could do. In the final yards the jockey took him outside and he passed three horses for fourth in a few strides before the race was over. He gets Hernandez to ride and if the jockey keeps him a path or two off the rail and pulls him outside for the stretch, he can post the upset. Here’s the part of what I wrote a few weeks ago which still applies:

Savage Battle is a lightly raced five year old with just 16 races under his belt, 10 of those turf sprints. He has a fantastic record of 4-1-2 in those 10 races, including a runner-up effort in the Colonel Power Stakes at Fair Grounds in February. He earned a strong 108 Equibase figure winning a turf sprint in January before earning a 106 figure in the stakes in February, with those figures competitive with the best in here.

Synchrony opens as the 7/5 favorite on the strength of a neck defeat in the G2 Monmouth Stakes last month at 9 furlongs but his 1-2-0 record at the mile on turf compared to his 5-1-4 record in 11 turf races at longer distances suggests this may not be his best trip. I won’t leave him off exacta, double or pick 3 tickets but I am hoping one of the other contenders wins, if Savage Battle does not.

Those other contenders are Say the Word, Mr Ritz, Curlin’s Honor and Emmaus.

Bets:
Savage Battle to win and place at 3 to 1 or more, a true KEY BET on the day.

Exactas: Box Savage Battle and Synchrony
Then, for a smaller amount box Savage Battle and Say the Word, Savage Battle and Mr Ritz, Savage Battle and Curlin’s Honor and top it off by boxing Savage Battle and Emmaus.

Doubles:
Savage Battle in race 6 with ALL in race 7.
Savage Battle in race 6 with Meyer, Another Breeze, Zoological, Money Matters, Scocciatore and Proven Strategies in race 7.
Savage Battle, Say the Word, Mr Ritz, Curlin’s Honor and Emmaus in race 6 with Another Breeze, Zoological and Scocciatore in race 7.

Pick 3 (which has a $0.20 minimum so we can make these two plays cheaply)-
Race 6 – Savage Battle
Race 7 – Meyer, Another Breeze, Zoological, Money Matters, Scocciatore and Proven Strategies
Race 8 – Holy Helena, Art of Almost, Starship Jubilee, Lift Up, Rock my Love

Race 6 – Savage Battle, Say the Word, Mr Ritz, Curlin’s Honor and Emmaus
Race 7 – Another Breeze, Zoological and Scocciatore
Race 8 – Starship Jubilee, Rock my Love

Race 7 at Woodbine - Post Time 3:28 PM Eastern


This maiden race is very interesting so in addition to using it as part of doubles and pick 3s started in the sixth there may be a play or two here. Scocciatore and Zoological both come from the Biamonte barn, both either owned in whole or in part by the trainer’s relative (wife or sister I assume). They’ve been working in company for over a month as the dates, distances and times are identical for both horses. Since both are bred to run well early, since the workouts for both are above average and signal the horses have talent, and since they are ridden by Contreras and Husbands, respectively, we must use both. Another Breeze is used because his 20/1 morning line is wacky considering he’s a half-brother to Gigantic Breeze, who won first out at Woodbine and who went on to win over $450K. The breeding is fine on the sire’s side of the family tree as well and it must be noted Gigantic Breeze had the same breeder, owner, trainer and jockey when winning first out a couple of years back. Proven Strategies and Meyer both come from the Casse barn, the former with a decent post and workouts for his debut and the latter, although getting the rail which might be intimidating, ran on from eighth to fourth in his debut four weeks ago as the favorite and can improve.

Bets: Scocciatore and Zoological at odds of 3/1. (Note: The win bet may not be necessary if the daily doubles are live and paying well).

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Another Breeze to win and place at 6 to 1 or more.

If you played the pick 3 starting in race 6 and none of the contenders won that leg, you can consider doubles using the contenders from that pick 3 in this race and the next race.

Dance Smartly Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:18 PM Eastern

Rock my Love makes her U.S. debut, adding Lasix after what appears to be a race warranting the addition because she finished eighth of nine and never ran a lick. That was a group 2 race in France last October and prior to that Rock my Love finished second, beaten just three-quarters of a length, in another group 2 stakes race. That race was run at the same 10 furlongs on turf as this one, and she had been in training at Belmont before shipping up to put in a five furlong workout on the Woodbine turf, a very sharp move. Her trainer, Jonathan Thomas, is rock solid as he’s the trainer of top turf star Catholic Boy, and Flavien Prat (the leading jockey in Southern California) takes the call.

Starship Jubilee is 12 for 26 on turf in her career, including four wins on the Woodbine turf. One of those came in this race in 2017, but last year she could only manage a sixth place finish. She’s been an in-and-out type since then, winning a pair of races including the Canadian Stakes in September, before a fourth place finish in the E.P. Taylor at this distance. She won a restricted stakes race in January then led by three before being passed and settling for second in the Nassau over the course last month. She won the Nassau in 2017 before winning the Dance Smartly and it’s likely she will be competitive to the wire but opening at 2/1 she’s a poor win bet.

Art of Almost will be the profit key for exotics, opening at 20/1. Trained by excellent trainer Attfield, this lightly raced three year old filly won her last two starts, both on the all-weather here at Woodbine, in ridden out fashion. As a daughter of Dansili, she can run all day so I have no concern about getting 10 furlongs either. Her best Equibase figure to date is 93, far short of the 107 Starship Jubilee earned winning this race in 2017 and the 111 figure Rock my Love earned in her group two runner-up effort last summer, but the pattern (74, 86, 93) and the fact she’s just three years old suggests she can run much better, perhaps outrunning her high odds to be in the mix at the end.

Holy Helena (9/5 morning line) is a nice mare but she’s never run better than when earning a 103 figure in the Very One Stakes in March and she finished a dismal third last year in this race as the favorite. Lift Up was scratched twice recently, maybe to run here, maybe not, and is making her first start off an eight month layoff. That’s not a concern considering who her trainer is (Dickinson, a genius at getting a horse fit off a layoff) but she’s never run this far and with four career runner-up finishes to go along with five wins, I’ll just use her in exactas. However it must be noted the distance is no issue as she missed by a neck in the Maple Leaf Stakes at this distance on the main track before going on the bench.

Bets: Rock my Love to win at 2 to 1 or more.
At least a minimum $2 or $5 win, place and show bet on Art of Almost at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Rock my Love over Holy Helena, Art of Almost, Starship Jubilee and Lift Up.
For $1 - Art of Almost over ALL, then the opposite, which is ALL over Art of Almost.
For $1 Art of Almost over Holy Helena, Starship Jubilee, Lift Up and Rock My Love, then the opposite, which is Holy Helena, Starship Jubilee, Lift Up and Rock My Love over Art of Almost.

Trifecta: Rock my Love over Holy Helena, Art of Almost, Starship Jubilee and Lift Up over Holy Helena, Art of Almost, Starship Jubilee and Lift Up.

Doubles: Rock my Love in race 8 with Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag and Caribou Club in race 9.

Art of Almost, Holy Helena, Starship Jubilee, Lift Up and Rock My Love in race 8 with Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag and Caribou Club in race 9.

Highlander Stakes - Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:51 PM Eastern

Wet Your Whistle gets slight preference among a quartet that appear most probable to win, if for no other reason than he is likely to go to post at the highest odds of the four. He won two of eight races last year and it took him six tries to earn his second career win which came in December, five months after he won his first career start. Nevertheless, only one of his eight races last year was a turf sprint. Starting off his four year old campaign in April and following four months off, Wet Your Whistle won a turf sprint rather easily when going from sixth, nearly five lengths back on the turn, to the lead and before drawing off by three lengths. Next time out on May 19, Wet Your Whistle won just as easily to take the Get Serious Stakes on the turf at Monmouth, improving to a career-best 117 Equibase Figure. To put that figure in perspective, when El Tormenta won the Connaught Cup Stakes last month over the Woodbine turf, he earned a 106 figure, and the winners of the last four editions of the Highlander earned 116, 105, 121 and 103 figures. As such, with logical improvement in his third start of the year, Wet Your Whistle could post the upset in this race.

Extravagant Kid also enters the Highlander off a stakes win, having won the Mighty Beau Stakes at Churchill Downs four weeks ago. The 116 figure earned was a career-best and as good as the figure Wet Your Whistle earned in his most recent race so there's little doubt Extravagant Kid can run well enough to win. He's also an extremely consistent horse as he's finished no worse than second in seven of his last eight races, all but one of those stakes races. Interestingly enough, although based in Kentucky with trainer Brendan Walsh, Wet Your Whistle shipped to Woodbine for the Jacques Cartier Stakes on the all-weather track in May and he wasn't disgraced one bit when second to the incomparable Pink Lloyd that day. Walsh knows how to keep his horses, particularly this one, happy and healthy as the trainer's record with back-to-back winners in similar situations is very good. Per a STATS Race Lens individual research query, over the last five years, Walsh has won with six of 19 horses in turf sprints which won their previous start. Getting local top jockey Hernandez is another sign Extravagant Kid has every chance to win this year's Highlander Stakes.

White Flag is pretty accomplished as well, with five wins in 13 career turf starts including the Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship last fall at this six furlong turf trip. He stretched out to a mile for the Tropical Turf Stakes in January and faded to fourth after leading from the start, but the cut back to six furlongs suits him perfectly. Having earned 113 figures in three straight races before the Tropical Turf, White Flag would need only the slightest improvement to run as well as Wet Your Whistle and Extravagant Kid have run in their best races and be very competitive in this spot.

Caribou Club has the second highest career earnings in the field at $504,744. He's raced exclusively on grass in his career, winning seven of 18 races. The most relevant of those wins came last year at Woodbine when the won the Connaught Cup, earning a career-best 112 figure. Caribou Club duplicated that effort and the same figure twice since, winning the Seabiscuit Stakes in November around two turns then winning the Joe Hernandez Stakes in January down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita. Then, shipping half-way across the world for his next start on March 30 in the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai, Caribou Club trailed throughout and finished last of 13. He's come back to work well and if he can rebound to the form shown last year or in January, he certainly can run well enough to win. On the other hand, those 112 figure efforts aren't as good as the effort Wet Your Whistle put forth in his most recent race nor the effort Extravagant Kid put forth in his most recent race, so it might be hard to consider a win bet on Caribou Club at low odds.

El Tormenta appears to be a cut below the four main contenders but is not completely without a chance. He's a four year old who may have improving to do and enters the race off a win in the Connaught Cup Stakes over the course four weeks ago. The effort earned a decent 106 figure, which was a big improvement off the 94 figure earned in April in his first start of the year and following six months off. Considering potential improvement, El Tormenta does have a shot to run competitively in the Highlander Stakes.

Bets: Wet Your Whistle and Extravagant Kid to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag and Caribou Club over Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag, Caribou Club and El Tormenta.

Trifectas: Wet Your Whistle and Extravagant Kid over Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag, Caribou Club, and El Tormenta over Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag, Caribou Club and El Tormenta.

Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag, Caribou Club and El Tormenta over Wet Your Whistle and Extravagant Kid over Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag, Caribou Club and El Tormenta.

Doubles to race 10, the Queen’s Plate Stakes:
Wet Your Whistle, Extravagant Kid, White Flag and Caribou Club in race 9 with Desert Ride, Pay for Peace, Skywire and Avie’s Flatter in race 10.

You can get my analysis for race 10 at Woodbine, the Queen’s Plate Stakes (also free) at the website of Woodbine Race Course.

Thursday, 27 June 2019 19:16

Summertime Blues

Past the Wire    Tracking Tips Logo

 

June 27th, 2019

Summertime Blues

By: Jonathan Stettin


It is going to be an interesting summer in our game. 

I remember a time not too long ago when the Saratoga meet was anticipated with as much excitement as any sport could bring to its fans. While I am sure it is still that way for many, for others it just is not the same. I’ll be the first to admit that if you were not around and in the game back when Saratoga was the August place to be as opposed to the summer place to be then you have no real frame of reference, and it is still an anticipated and exciting meet. If you were however, then you likely recognize that an aftermarket spoiler has been put on a red vintage Ferrari. You just don’t do that. It’s a rare case of when an addition intended as an enhancement devalues something. 

I attended every Saratoga meet in its entirety for the first 30 years of my life. Many others in part thereafter. It was absolutely the place everyone in the game wanted to be and where they wanted to win. I hit my largest Pick 6 there in excess of half a million dollars. There were plenty of others over 100K as well. I made my first significant bet, while pretty young, on It’s In The Air to upset Davona Dale in the Alabama. As an owner, I was lucky enough to run one horse there, and she won. One for one is how I’ll keep that record, at least for now. I never thought my excitement for the Spa would wane. 

While still a great meet by comparison to others, the changes to the game, racing in general, the times and the town have relegated it to just a small piece of what it was. Modernization and technology do not always improve everything they touch. Vintage is vintage for a reason. Saratoga was vintage. 

I think the main issue in changing the quality of the meet lies in the multiple extensions to it. For a long time, and through its heyday, it was four weeks of six days of racing. That amounted to a 24 day meet of high-quality thoroughbreds competing at what was recognized as the toughest circuit with the best outfits, trainers, and riders. Maiden Special Weight races featured many homebred horses from powerhouse farms and stables that wanted to outdo one another on the track, not in the sales ring and not join in partnerships. The competition was fierce, and so were the wagering opportunities with many less gimmicks or exotic bets. Allowance races were preps for bigger and better and not also optional claimers like we see today. There were very few if any maiden claiming races, and just a couple of lower level claiming races. While the sport probably can’t sustain such a meet today, trying over almost two months certainly changes what Saratoga was. It really was the Sport of Kings, and when you were there you felt like one. 

Whitney Day, Alabama Day, and of course Travers Day are still strong. The rest of the meet has far too many cards that could be run during the week at one of NYRA’s downstate tracks. It was never that way. Sometimes preserving is better than advancing. 

The late pick 5 being open to all bettors, not just NYRA Bets account holders and on track players, is one of a very limited few welcome additions. The pool which suffered under the previous restrictions will likely grow significantly. This is something that can really present some great opportunities. I wish it were a $2 wager, but hey, at this point we take what we can get in this game. 

I am not sure what to expect at Del Mar, another great meet that is also not what it was. Del Mar has publicly admitted they expect a horse shortage, limiting field sizes and race days. If they follow Santa Anita and ban Jerry Hollendorfer that will make things even tougher on the racing office to fill races and get the condition book to go. Santa Anita became a rough place to wager this last meet, and there is a good chance Del Mar has a lot of pass days for me as well. We will just have to see how it plays out. 

We are all awaiting word from the Breeders’ Cup on whether they stay at Santa Anita or move to Churchill Downs or even somewhere else. You would have to think this is the main point on the agenda for their meeting in the 27th. My guess is it remains at Santa Anita. First, it would be tough to change venues both contractually and logistically at this point. You also have all the prepaid flights and accommodations to think about. Second, while Santa Anita might not have handled the crisis of the fatal breakdowns as good as it could have, many of the changes they’ve implemented are consistent with the Breeders’ Cup philosophies and also European racing. I don’t think the Breeders’ Cup will be so fast on the draw to punish them for that. All that said, if they do move it I will be far from shocked. 

Stay tuned, it is going to be a long summer. 



Saturday, 22 June 2019 03:11

Upsets

Past the Wire    Tracking Tips Logo

 

June 21st, 2019

Upsets

By: Jonathan Stettin


Last week we got to see the first time in the short career of Maximum Security that he did not cross the wire first. To many, it was an unexpected shocker, but should it have been? We'll look at that in the recent content of angles we've been discussing to help identify scores and bet against races alike.

We have recently talked about bank roll management, two year olds progressing past their earlier figures, and today, we will talk about a widely used but often confused term, "the bounce."

While the stumble at the start didn't help Maximum Security, he was ripe to regress. Knowing when a horse is ready to regress or bounce is a strong advantage or edge, especially if the horse is a favorite.

Maximum Security ran a very hard race while still inexperienced and lightly raced in the Kentucky Derby. He ran harder and further than he ever had before under less than ideal conditions. His trainer was noncommittal about his run in the Pegasus until he actually entered. He has even publicly said blood was drawn on Maximum Security as he was not quite right. These factors all point to a regression or bounce. Let's define bounce. A bounce is when a horse goes backward or runs significantly worse than they have in their last start or even last few starts.

Most horses will regress or bounce off a race where they exceeded their previous top performance by a decent measurable speed figure or just flat out performance. You don't need to use speed figures to spot a bounce, but they certainly can accelerate the process.

Sure some horses can regress and win, and Maximum Security certainly looked like he could be one of those in the field he faced in the Pegasus. That said, do you really want a short price on a horse that is not peaking or going forward when you have nicer price options on horses that are?

When looking for a horse to bounce, thus bet against at a short price, here are some things you can watch for:

1-   A horse who ran significantly faster than ever before in their last start.

2-   A horse who has strung together a series of faster than their norm races.

3-   A horse who appeared to visually run hard or work very hard in their last start.

4-   A horse who is coming back faster than they normally do, or that their trainer likes to do or usually does.

5-   A horse who ran well last out but is now being asked to do something they've shown in the past they do not excel at.

Are there other indicators or tells, sure and you should pay attention to any you have learned to recognize. One thing to be careful of is the "easy win" not telegraphing a possible bounce. Some years ago, and I have written about this before, I watched a race with Bobby Frankel. His horse jogged under wraps with Jerry Bailey up and went really fast. Nonetheless, it was done handily, easily with ears pricked up. Bobby cursed. I asked what could possibly be wrong with that race?

He said plainly, "too fast." Explaining further, "This was not the race I was pointing to, and now I have to worry about a bounce."

I replied, "Why it was so easy."

Here is where I was schooled and went into sponge mode and made many a score because of it. He told me when a horse runs fast, real fast, no matter how easy they do it, how it looks, or how they act after it before their next start, you always have to fear they will regress. He explained a fast race is almost always taxing regardless of how it may look to us. I never forgot that lesson, so to speak and it served me well many times.

The bounce is a real angle. It happens. Horses are not machines and form cycles last indefinitely very rarely. Looking for the bounce and accurately spotting it can land you on some nice winners and keep you away from some short priced losers. That's a win-win right there.

 

Race 7 at Monmouth - Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern

 

This wide open maiden race leads into the Iselin Stakes (Race 10) and offers profit opportunity, not only in doubles to race 10, but in this race itself. Rumors of Violence ran very well when second last month in a race scheduled for turf but run on the main track, which was his first start after five months off. Trainer Dickinson, always high percentage on few starters, is 6 for 13 on the year, including two for three at the meeting, BOTH ridden by Gallardo, who rides this gelding who should improve nicely second off the layoff.

 

Zieg may be second most likely in my opinion but as he opens at 15/1 he must be played as well. He improved nicely second time out in April to be third at seven furlongs and is absolutely bred to adore the turf. That race turned out to be a key race and the 82 Equibase Speed Figure he earned is close enough to the 86 figure Rumors of Violence earned in his most recent start that, with logical improvement, this horse can run as well.

 

Trinity must be considered a contender although he's likely to go to post favored in the betting as he was last month at 2 to 1 when he led for the first mile then tired to fifth. He had run very well in two prior, either of those good enough to win here if repeated.

 

Win Bets: Rumors of Violence to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Zieg to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

 

Exactas:

Rumors of ViolenceZieg and Trinity over Rumors of ViolenceZiegTrinityAir AttackMedina RidgeSuperhighwayStorm Tower and Travel Agent.

 

DoublesRumors of ViolenceZieg and Trinity in Race 9 with Bal HarbourRunnin'toluvya and Diamond King in Race 10.

 

Rumors of ViolenceZiegTrinityAir AttackMedina RidgeSuperhighwayStorm Tower and Travel Agent in Race 9 with Runnin'toluvya in Race 10. (Optionally, also use Bal Harbour and Diamond King).

 

Iselin Stakes – Race 10 at Monmouth - Post Time 5 PM Eastern

 

 

Runnin'toluvya doesn't really know what losing feels like, having won 11 in a row and 13 of 17 races. All have been at Charles Town but one was the Charles Town Classic, in which he beat Diamond King and some other nice horses. He's a two-turn specialist with excellent tactical speed who can win on the lead or from just off the pace and it's great the trainer goes to a local jockey in Suarez. With the three post, Runnin'toluvya should be first or second early and should win for the 14th time in his career as his 110, 116 and 108 Equibase figures from his last three wins are as good or better than the other two win contenders, with the rest really a cut below.

 

Bal Harbour was third, two lengths behind runner-up Diamond King, in the Salvatore Mile over the track last month. That was his first race after four months off so he has room to improve and he does get seven pounds from Runnin'toluvya so he could improve off the effort on a couple of counts. Whether that improvement is good enough to win is a question as his last win came in November around one turn with a 105 figure. Diamond King adds blinkers, a bit odd for a stakes, but considering he led by a half-length in the stretch in the Salvatore Mile and was passed (albeit by a very good horse in Sunny Ridge) the blinkers could help. He's earned 108, 115 (when second to Runnin'toluvya) and 109 figures in his last three and is in the best form of his career.

 

Bets: Runnin'toluvya at 2 to 1 or more. (If live in the double, it's okay to skip the win bet).

 

Exacta: Runnin'toluvya over Bal HarbourDiamond King and Monongahela.

 

Race 8 at Belmont - Post Time 5:18 PM Eastern

 

I like this race not only because it provides opportunities to play doubles to the Wild Applause Stakes (Race 9) but also because I think Morgantown is a solid play and he opens at 10/1. A perfect two-for-two in his career to date, he has superb early speed and should have the lead to himself once again from his inside draw. He beat "open" (not statebred) company last out and Cancel, who rode him to his maiden win in April, gets back on and will send him from the gate to play "come catch me."

 

Bets: Morgantown to win at 5 to 2 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

Doubles: Morgantown in Race 8 with ALL in Race 9.

Also, ALL in Race 8 with Nova Sol in Race 9.

 

Wild Applause Stakes - Race 9 at Belmont - Post Time 5:51 PM Eastern

 

Nova Sol was very well meant in her U.S. debut and first start after seven months off last month in the Hilltop Stakes on Preakness weekend. Breaking last of 10 early, the filly was relaxed and far back, 15 lengths to be exact, after a half-mile, then began a steady rally to be second at the wire. The winner, Dogtag, is a multiple stakes winner and the third horse flattered both the winner and Nova Sol by winning a stakes next time out, improving her Equibase figure by 12 points. Since Nova Sol earned a field high 98 figure in the Hilltop, that kind of improvement makes her the one to beat by far, so she's going to be a low odds overlay in this race.

 

Bets: Nova Sol to win at odds of even money or higher. (Note: If the doubles are paying decently there's likely no need to play Nova Sol to win)

 

Wilshire Stakes - Race 8 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:36 PM Eastern (4:46 Pacific)

 

Ollies Candy had a phenomenal three year old campaign last year, never worse than second in five races, winning the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks and beaten necks in the Del Mar Oaks and San Clemente. She was short when returning in May trying nine furlongs without a prep but she's going to be a LOT tighter here as Sadler wins better than 20% of the time second off a layoff in a turf route. As such, she and has a big shot to post the mild upset, opening at 5/1.

Meal Ticket moved up comfortably inside from seventh to fourth last month in the Gamely and was third at the eighth pole before running into a roadblock from which she could not recover. She didn't quicken when asked but there was no reason to ask at the point where there was any room. The fact Smith is getting on says a LOT about her chances here, for a low profile trainer in Chew. She's been very consistent with seven first or second place finishes in 12 career races on grass, 11 if you ignore the Gamely, so opening at 8/1 she's a must to use on exotic tickets we play at the least.

 

Storm the Hill won the Ken Maddy Stakes last fall, a downhill sprint, when last seen, and she won last year's Wilshire at 9 to 1 right after shipping into the D'Amato barn from Kentucky. She last two races after that, one with some trouble, before the Maddy win, and although it's tough to win at a mile in top company off a seven month layoff like she's attempting to do today, it's not an impossible task for this trainer who has won four times from 25 starters over the last five years with these kinds of horses.

 

Bets: Ollies Candy AND Meal Ticket to win at odds 5 to 2 or more.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

 

ExactasBox Ollies CandyMeal Ticket and Storm the Hill.

Then also Ollies CandyMeal Ticket and Storm the Hill over Ollies CandyMeal Ticket, Storm the HillSimply BreathlessGliding By and A Little Bit Me.

 

Ginger Punch Stakes - Race 5 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:49 PM Eastern

 

With Faith N Hope stretching out and likely to go for the early lead, running as fast or faster than she usually does, which is to say getting the opening half-mile in about 47, the race falls to the closers. Those are made up two distinct groups. The first group are horses like Aquemini, who has a career record of 3-10-5 which in my mind clearly states she doesn’t know how to win or is always closing too late to do so, as exampled by her most recent race when 18 lengths back early and second, beaten a half-length, at the end. Another in that group is Bitacora, with a career mark on turf of 4-8-1, her last win coming in this race one year ago and winless in eight races since although she has finished second twice and third (a neck from second) once. The last of the group is Supercommittee, who was second with an eighth of a mile to go in the similar Powder Break Stakes in late April, before (as usual) running evenly and ending up third.

 

The other group consists of two “WIN” types – Passion Plus and Una LunaPassion Plus has a record of 4-0-2 in 10 races on grass including the most important of those, her last race. On May 30 in her 2nd start following a long seven month layoff and her 2nd start after changing to the Sano barn, also her first with Zayas aboard, the filly rallied from 14 back to close with a flourish and be in front by two lengths at the eighth pole before coasting home. She should be stronger third off a layoff and with Zayas riding back could win again. Una Luna has a 4-2-2 record in 11 turf races and also won her most recent start, on 5/30, the same day Passion Plus won. Una Luna had Jaramillo riding that day, for the first time, and it was a career best effort the same as the career best effort Passion Plus put forth. Passion Plus earned a 90 Equibase figure for her win while Una Luna earned an 89 figure so it is very conceivable these two fillies could be fighting to the wire today if they repeat or improve upon those last efforts.

 

Win Bets: Considering Passion Plus opens at 12/1 while Una Luna opens at 3/1, Passion Plus is the much better bet, but I would bet them both to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. I would also add a place bet on Passion Plus at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Exactas:

Box Passion Plus and Una Luna

 

Also, Passion Plus and Una Luna over Passion PlusUna LunaAqueminiBitacora and Supercommittee. Add Amaluna in the second position if she draws in from the also-eligible list.

 

For half-the amount you bet the above exacta (for example $1 if you bet $2 per combination on the above), play the opposite of the exacta above.

 

Trifecta: Passion Plus and Una Luna over ALL over Passion Plus and Una Luna.

 (This covers the possibility of Passion Plus and Una Luna finishing first and third)

 

Honey Bee Stakes - Race 10 at Monmouth - Post Time 5 PM Eastern

 

Servis is loaded with three horses in this race but all have similar ownership and two don’t have riders named so I suspect only one will run and that will be A Bit of Both, with Juarez named to ride. She’s VERY fast early, having wired the field in three straight, all on dirt. She reminds me of Servis’ top sprinter World of Trouble, who just runs the field off their feet nearly every time whether the race is on turf or on dirt. The only problem I see with A Bit of Both wiring the field is “IF” #11 Margie Is Livid gets in from the also-eligible list as that filly can run under 21 for the first quarter and she is absolutely a “need the lead” type the same as A Bit of Both is. So, for betting purposes I’ll use A Bit of Both but she won’t be my top pick.

 

That status goes to Queen of Bermuda who came back from five months off in April to finish sixth in a stakes as the 6 to 5 favorite, then improved last month to finish third of eight in another turf sprint stakes. She’s moving the right way and her third U.S. start could be her best yet. She won a group 3 stakes in September in an 11 horse field in Ireland so she has the best class in the race and with Bravo getting on it looks like all signs are GO.

 

Nightlife tried turf for the first time last out on 4/18 and won gamely by a nose. The race proved productive as the third place finisher won very nicely off the effort and with Ferrer, who really knows this turf course, getting on, an even better effort is likely particularly as this will be her second ever start on the grass.

 

There a lot of horses, six to be exact, to be used on some exacta tickets in the second position, including the two other Servis trainees – Golconda and Corn Off the Cob, as well as EyeintheskyMissmizzOrra Moor and the other also-eligible, Tide Storm.

 

Win BetsQueen of Bermuda at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Nightlife to win at odds of 7/2 or more.

Minimum odds for considering a win bet on A Bit of Both are 7 to 2 “if” Margie is Livid runs and 5/2 if Margie is Livid does not run.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Exactas: Queen of BermudaNightlife and A Bit of Both over Queen of BermudaNightlifeA Bit of BothGolcondaCorn Off the CobEyeintheskyMissmizzOrra Moor and Tide Storm

 

Race 7 at Santa Anita- Post Time 7:03 PM Eastern

 

Trainer Shelbe Ruis of Ruis Racing moved most of their stable's horses out of California early this year and based them in Kentucky, near the family's Chestnut Farm, but has begun to return to California and for Sergio particularly that appears to be a good move as he broke his maiden in February over the track with a strong 85 Equibase figure effort. He was cutting back from seven furlongs to six that day off a third place finish and I view his cut back from a mile (on grass) last out to 6 1/2 furlongs today in a similar light, particularly as he pressed the pace only a length off the leader from the start and most importantly, through the point this race ends. With Satori, Polity and Senditlikechilly all wanting the lead from the start or to press the pace close at hand, Gutierrez can relax Sergio off the pace in fourth to sixth just as he was for that 2/28 winning effort, so that looks repeatable here in this race with eight of the other nine all possessing just one career win just like he does.

 

Sir Eddie has the biggest class edge in the field, having only run in a claiming race once in 16 starts, that race in January when in for a 50K maiden claiming price, leading late and finishing second. He won his next start, in April, at this 6 1/2 furlong trip, easily then ran poorly in a starter allowance and when completely overmatched in a Cal-bred allowance on the turf last month. Back on dirt, back at the distance of his win, reunited with Prat (who rode him to the win) and facing much easier, Sir Eddie has a fine shot to run back to that top effort which earned him an 88 figure.

 

Senditlikechilly has a shot to avoid the likely early all-out pace battle between Satori and Polity, the latter with apprentice Diaz likely to let the horse roll. From the outside, although close up, it’s possible with the jockey change to Arroyo, Senditlikechilly can sit just off the pace as he did three back on 4/20 when he drew off to win by three and one-half lengths with an 85 figure. Last time out on 5/25, the horse sat in third early and then passed the leaders to be up by two lengths in the stretch before being passed but beaten only a half-length while nearly three in front of the third horse, so he must be respected with a good post like the eight post he won from in April.

 

Win Bets:  Sergio and Sir Eddie at odds of 5/2 or more.

Senditlikechilly at 3/1 or higher.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Exactas: SergioSir Eddie and Senditlikechilly over SergioSir EddieSenditlikechillySatori, Kidmon, Surfside Sunset, Polity and Mo Dinero.

 

Double: SergioSir Eddie and Senditlikechilly in Race 7 with Desert Law in Race 8.

 

Thor’s Echo Handicap - Race 8 at Santa Anita- Post Time 7:36 PM Eastern

 

Desert Law has won four of 12 career starts on dirt, two of those at Santa Anita and three of them at this basic six furlong trip. Returning from a June to May layoff in an “open” (not restricted to Cal-Breds) allowance race, he pressed a very hot pace from the start then tired a bit to end up fourth. That prep sets him up nicely for a new career best effort, better than the one he put in in this race last June which preceded the layoff, in which he earned a solid 106 Equibase figure. He has the right off-the-pace style in this speed laden field and Bejarano, up for the win last June and the comeback last month, rides back. The works since raced have been top notch, the first two of the three both being “Bullet” (best of the day) workouts at five furlongs.

 

The reasons the race sets up nicely for Desert Law are as follows – Coil Me Home added blinkers last time out and ran hard early so should run as hard or harder here from the rail which forces him to go from the bell, To The Wire and Smiling Angelo have had the lead at the quarter mile mark in nearly every one of their nine combined career starts. Prodigal Son is yet another who may go for the front, or want to press the pace.

 

That leaves Fire When Ready as the only horse I want to use in exactas with Desert Law because Fire When Ready can take advantage of an outside post to stalk the pace and could benefit when the pacesetters and pressers tire.

 

Win Bets: Desert Law to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more (a true low odds overlay)

Exactas: Box Desert Law and Fire When Ready. Also Play Desert Law over Fire When Ready.

 

Saturday, 22 June 2019 02:57

True or False

Past the Wire    Tracking Tips Logo

 

June 14th, 2019

True or False

By: Jonathan Stettin


A few years ago, a two year old named Caledonia Red barely made it to my radar in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in my early work. By the time the race came up, I made and cashed a nice bet. It was a true track bias I recognized that got me there. A true track bias is a gift that just keeps giving. Not only can you capitalize on one race day if you catch it, but you can bet with an edge on those who ran well against it and downgrade those who ran with it. The whole key is knowing a true track bias from a false or perceived one.

A bias can mean different things to different handicappers. I define a track bias this way:

A trend in the track that helps horses run better than they would have if they ride it and worse then they would have if they are against it. Simply said a bias can make horses who would not have won on a fair track win, and horses who would have won on a fair track lose. Anything less to me is not a true bias. It would be hard to capitalize off anything less than my definition. Additionally, although tracks can change throughout a card, a true bias will more often than not hold for the bulk of the day. When they don’t you must ask yourself if it could have possibly been a false bias. Chances are it was.

Players are fast on the draw to label a track biased, often incorrectly at least by my definition. A bias comes in a few different forms. It can be an inside or outside bias which relates to a portion of the racetrack. It can be down the crown of the track as we often see in the mud. It can be a speed bias or a closers bias. Sometimes you will see more than one type of bias together, but obviously they can’t conflict with each other, or you are back to a false bias.

An excellent example of bettors being prematurely fast on the bias draw was last weekends Belmont Stakes card. The bias talk came early and often. It was all over social media and the tv broadcasts. Trainers even voiced concerns about how the track was playing would affect their horses. They were all wrong, and no this is not subjective. Not only were they calling it a speed biased racetrack but they were also saying it was a rail biased racetrack. A good deal of this gibberish began after only the second dirt race was run. That’s an impressive assessment if you are right. Were they? You tell me.

Sea Foam won the first race on the card. He stalked the pace, did not make the pace, and made an early inside move — a stalking trip in the opener.

The next dirt race had the bias callers out in full force. The fact it was just the second dirt race on the card did not temper them. Majid went to the lead in relatively easy splits. He went Wire to Wire. He should have. He got away uncontested and set soft splits on a very fast but fair racetrack. One of the biggest lures to a false bias is not realizing why a horse trips out and wins. With the way things unfolded Majid was supposed to win.

The next dirt race was won by Midnight Bisou who not only came from off the pace but was last at one point. Nonetheless, you had analysts, trainers, and people all over social media saying you had or be on the rail with speed to win. I knew this would lead to some big edge bets on the card.

The next dirt race we saw Guarana blitz the field from slightly off the pace. It was a stalking trip. 4 races and just one Wire to Wire winner. They still screamed bias in force. On true bias days, you see 4 races and 4 Wire to Wire winners.

The next one was a classic. Hog Creek Hustle roared down the middle of the track from off the pace. He beat my “edge play” Nitrous by a long nose and Nitrous was further back and wider than he was. The reported rail and speed bias is not what cost me that bet.

Mitole took the next dirt race stalking and prompting the pace. Noteworthy McKinzie came from off the pace and had a lot of traffic trouble, or it may have been a different result but certainly would have been closer. That’s six dirt races and one Wire to Wire winner who got a lone lead and went slow on a fast track.

Sir Winston won the Belmont from off the pace. Did he spend some time saving ground on the rail? Absolutely. Did it help him? Absolutely as saving ground usually does. When good horses save ground on the rail it helps a lot. Seven dirt races and one horse goes gate to wire.

Recognizing a true bias from a false one can be lucrative. Being quick draw McGraw won’t help you be correct in that assessment.

There was a rail and speed bias on Belmont Stakes day. True or false?

 

  

Easy Goer Stakes - Race 3 at Belmont - Post Time 12:47 PM Eastern

 

Personally I plan to bet BOTH Majid and Grumps Little Tots to win if above 3/1, and I plan to use ALL SIX if I play the double, pick 3 or pick 4 involving this race as a case can be made for every entrant. However, Majid could be a “lone front runner” in this short field if Saez takes advantage of his early speed. He’s won three in a row, all since moving to the Rodriguez barn, the last a one turn mile over the track no different from this one mile and one-sixteenth trip around one turn. Saez rode him to a wire-to-wire win last month and the effort earned a 96 Equibase figure which is competitive with nearly EVERY horse in the field in most of their races. The exception is the 103 figure Outshine (who opens at 9/5) figure earned when second in the Tampa Bay Derby but that was a two-turn race, but he earned a 93 figure at seven furlong before that. Heavy morning line favorite Alwaysmining earned 109 and 104 figures in March and April, which beat this field if repeated and if no horse drastically improves, but those were also around two turns and his 99 figure in his last one turn race is not that superior to Majids last effort. Rodriguez wins 25% of the time with his horses back-to-back so I’ll take a shot this colt can control things start to finish.

 

Grumps Little Tots, like Outshine, ran poorly in the Wood Memorial when last seen but opens at 12/1 compared to 9/5 even though he gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. to ride for the red hot Servis barn and even though this jockey/trainer combo clicks nearly 40% of the time (over almost 200 races going back to 1/1/18). In a one turn mile race before the Wood, the gelding ran off by six lengths and that kind of effort can be improved upon here.

 

As I said, all six can win and the favorites, Outshine and Alwaysmining are not standouts by any means but with decent prices or standouts in other races for multi-race bets there’s every reason to try to use “ALL” in this leg if possible.

 

Bets:

Win Bets: Majid and Grumps Little Tots to win at 3 to 1 or higher.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Pick 3 (two tickets):

Race 3: Majid, Grumps Little Tots

Race 4: Daddy Is a Legend, Rushing Fall, Beau Recall

Race 5: Come Dancing

 

Race 3: All (6 horses)

Race 4: Daddy Is a Legend, Rushing Fall, Beau Recall

Race 5: Come Dancing

 

Just a Game Stakes - Race 4 at Belmont - Post Time 1:22 PM Eastern

 

Daddy Is a Legend should NOT be the 6/1 odds she is on the morning line, but I’ll take it. She won the Lake George last summer at Saratoga in impressive fashion on a firm course then didn’t care for the soft turf next month in the Lake Placid. Two months later in the Valley View she WOULD HAVE WON if she didn’t try to duck through the rail when making the winning move in the stretch and thankfully the breakaway rail did its job and she was unharmed. She came back to miss by a half-length in the Grade 1 Matriarch after being nearly 10 lengths back early then took the winter off, returning to rally from 8th to 2nd in the Distaff Turf Mile on Derby day before the time off caught up with her and she tired back to third, still ONLY a head from runner-up Get Stormy. Franco has ridden her in six straight so gets along with her nicely and she gets SIX pounds from Beau Recall, who beat her a length and one-quarter last month, which should help her run well enough to win and post the mild upset as she improves nicely in her second start off the layoff.

 

Beau Recall won the Distaff Turf Mile in a mild upset at 10/1 but probably shouldn’t have been those odds considering who sizzling hot the Cox barn is. Since changing trainers in December, she’s three-for-four with one second and with Cox winning back-to-back at a 33% clip the past year she must be taken very seriously as a win contender.

 

Next we come to Rushing Fall, a favorite of mine but badly overbet here as she opens at 4/5 on the strength of a seven-for-eight career record. However, she really hasn’t beaten much and the 108, 105 and 103 figures she earned in her last three races are NOT even as good as the 111, 110 and 110 figures Beau Recall earned in her last three nor the 119 figure Daddy Is a Legend earned when second in the Matriarch, or even the 107 figure Daddy Is a Legend earned when third in the Distaff Turf Mile last month. I’ll use Rushing Fall defensively particularly as Brown’s horses win 1/3 of the time back-to-back but for making a profit I’m sure hoping one of the other two gals gets home on top.

 

Bets:

Win Bets: Daddy Is a Legend and Beau Recall to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Exactas: Box Daddy Is a Legend, Beau Recall and Rushing Fall

Daddy Is a Legend, Beau Recall and Rushing Fall over Daddy Is a Legend, Beau Recall, Rushing Fall and Get Stormy.

 

Trifecta: Daddy Is a Legend, Beau Recall and Rushing Fall over Daddy Is a Legend, Beau Recall, Rushing Fall and Get Stormy over Daddy Is a Legend, Beau Recall, Rushing Fall and Get Stormy.

 

Ogden Phipps Stakes – Race 5 at Belmont - Post Time 2:01 PM Eastern

 

YES, #2 Midnight Bisou is an exceptional racehorse, having won three graded stakes in a row, and YES, #4 Escape Clause has a shot as well as she nearly beat Midnight Bisou last time out in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. HOWEVER, Come Dancing is in another league right now and, when combined with the fact she has a big “early pace” edge in this short field, she should win, although most people agree and that’s why she opens at 6/5 (Midnight Bisou opens at even money). Come Dancing ran huge three back in December to Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Marley’s Freedom when battling that one neck-and-neck for the last six furlongs of the race then she destroyed the field by almost eight lengths in the Distaff Handicap in April. Proving that no fluke, Come Dancing won the Ruffian Stakes by nearly seven lengths over the track at one mile last month and the extra sixteenth of a mile should prove no issue, particularly as no other horse has shown any desire to lead early which gives her an edge she can use to control the race from start to finish.

 

Bets: (No bet is really necessary if you played the pick 3 in race 3 and are alive to Come Dancing)

Win bets: Come Dancing to win if 6 to 5 odds or higher (a low odds overlay win bet).

 

Exactas: There’s no point in betting an exacta consisting of Come Dancing and Midnight Bisou so we can play a couple of tickets using Escape Clause and each of those two as follows:

Box Escape Clause and Come Dancing

Box Escape Clause and Midnight Bisou

 

Belmont Stakes – Race 11 at Belmont - Post Time 6:37 PM Eastern

 

I’ll start by saying there’s no doubt War of Will has a great deal of competitive spirit. In spite of fighting his jockey in the early stages in a few of his races, when he is asked to run his best he responds nicely. Even after the incident early in the stretch of the Derby, War of Will re-engaged with Maximum Security for a number of strides before tiring. Then, when allowed to make one run in the Preakness, War of Will took the inside path and ran very well to draw off by a length and one-quarter, earning a career-best 107 EquibaseÒ Speed Figure in the process. The biggest question I have about War of Will repeating or improving upon his Preakness effort in the Belmont is related to his pedigree and ability to run as well at the distance of one and one half miles. Horses outrun their pedigree all the time, but considering none of the sons or daughters of sire War Front have run well at the distance, on turf or on dirt, I will look elsewhere for my top contenders although I will not discount the chances of War of Will to win the Belmont entirely.

 

Sir Winston will be my top choice. He may only have a career record of two-for-nine but the second of the two was in the Display Stakes, an important stakes race for two year olds at Woodbine. Returning two months later in February of this year, Sir Winston finished well in the late stages when fourth behind Tax in the Withers Stakes then rallied from 11th to fifth behind Tacitus in the Tampa Bay Derby in March. After a troubled trip when seventh in the Blue Grass Stakes in April and not having enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, Sir Winston pointed to the Peter Pan Stakes four weeks ago as a prep for the Belmont Stakes. This is the same prep the 2014 top two finishers (Tonalist and Commissioner) used. Until 2010, the Dwyer Stakes was run four weeks prior to the Belmont, with the top two finishers in that race (Drosselmeyer and Fly Down) finishing one-two in the Belmont. Joel Rosario rode Sir Winston in the Peter Pan and will once again be in the saddle in the Belmont. It must be noted in 2014 when Tonalist won the Peter Pan he was ridden by Joel Rosario, who won the Belmont with the colt one month later. Although the 101 figure Sir Winston earned in the Peter Pan is a bit shy of the 107 War of Will earned in the Preakness and the same figure Tacitus earned in the Derby, I think Sir Winston can improve more than enough to post the upset in this year's Belmont.

 

Master Fencer (JPN) may not have been fully acclimated to U.S. racing when he ran in the Kentucky Derby, especially with a 20 horse field and water being splashed into him. In the Derby, it appeared Master Fencer (JPN) didn't really know what to do as the field broke and he seemed a bit taken aback by all the water being kicked up so jockey Leparoux just let him drop back to last in the field of 19 in the early stages, as many as 23 lengths behind the early leader. As the race went on, Master Fencer (JPN) started to run more confidently and by the end he was rolling on the inside to be beaten just four lengths at the end. Galloping out second on the turn and having put in a series of strong workouts in Kentucky and then at Belmont Park since the Derby, there is a lot of upside for this young colt. Considering his Derby effort earned a 106 figure, I think Master Fencer (JPN) deserves a good deal of respect as a contender in the Belmont Stakes.

 

Tacitus was also rolling faster than most horses in the last quarter mile of the Derby, earning a career-best 107 figure when beaten just three-quarters of a length for third at the finish. Tacitus had won three races in a row prior to that including the Wood Memorial and in that race the colt recovered from early trouble where he nearly fell, after which many horses may have given up. As a son of Tapit, who sired three recent winners of the Belmont (Tonalist in 2014, Creator in 2016 and Tapwrit in 2017), there is no question Tacitus can get the mile and one-half distance of the Belmont. Trainer Bill Mott won this race in 2010 with Drosselmeyer so he knows what it takes to get a horse ready for this marathon test as well.

 

In addition to the four horses I think have the bulk of the probability to win this year's Belmont Stakes - Sir Winston, Master Fencer (JPN), Tacitus and War of Will, Everfast is a horse I think we need to consider for any exacta or trifecta tickets we play. Coming off a career best 105 figure effort when second in the Preakness, similar to the effort he put in four races before that when second in the Holy Bull, Everfast will be rallying from far back and passing many of the horses who will find the mile and one-half distance to be beyond their range.

 

Bets:

Win Bets: Sir Winston to win at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

Master Fencer to win at 4 to1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more.

 

Exactas:

Sir Winston and Master Fencer over Sir Winston, Master Fencer, Tacitus, War of Will and Everfast.

Then also play the opposite of the above, which is Sir Winston, Master Fencer, Tacitus, War of Will and Everfast over Sir Winston and Master Fencer.

 

Optionally (for $1) Sir Winston and Master Fencer over ALL.

 

Trifecta:

Sir Winston and Master Fencer over Sir Winston, Master Fencer, Tacitus, War of Will and Everfast over Sir Winston, Master Fencer, Tacitus, War of Will and Everfast.

 

In conjunction with the above, Sir Winston, Master Fencer, Tacitus, War of Will and Everfast over Sir Winston, Master Fencer and Everfast over Sir Winston, Master Fencer, Tacitus, War of Will and Everfast.

 

The strategy in playing both trifectas above is to avoid any tickets involving the favorites War of Will and Tacitus coming in first and second and trying to maximize profit with any of the three horses at higher odds coming in first and second or first and third)

 

Optionally, for the trifecta, you can use “ALL” in the third position, but that significantly increases the cost. 

Friday, 07 June 2019 12:18

Belmont Action

Past the Wire   Tracking Tips Logo

 

June 7th, 2019

Belmont Action

By: Jonathan Stettin


Between Friday and Saturday at Belmont, there will be an abundance of opportunities to go after a score. While this is great and what most of us wait for, it helps to have a solid plan of attack. All those opportunities and alluring races can prompt many to spread their bankrolls out to keep them in action, but if you are looking to take down a big score that might not be the best way to go. It’s not how I play it. These two days are when your money management skills get out to the test. If you don’t have them your bankroll can be put to rest.

Whether your bankroll for the weekend is $100, $1000, or $10,000 it doesn’t matter. You have to apply it in the best way to capitalize on your strongest opinion. Of course, you have to be right.

I play more aggressively than most. Using a $100 bankroll, I will take 80% of that and put that into my best spot for the weekend. I may spread the 80% across different types of wagers keying on the horse I like the best, but I won’t use any of that 80% on other horses or sequences. This puts me in position to maximize my investment on the horse I feel best about. If I am right, I will have a good majority of my bankroll on my horse, and that is how you set yourself up to score.

Many people will spread thin and want action in every race and sequence. Can they catch a big number and score? Of course. That said, in the long run, if your handicapping is solid, you will get much farther into the black column attacking who you really like best. Does it really make sense just for the sake of action to spread around and use as much of your bankroll on a horse or sequence you like a little as opposed to one you feel strongly about? I say no all day to that.

When finished handicapping I will look at the two or maybe three horses I like best. It is my nature to go after the longest prices one, and I will have to like a shorter priced one a lot more to pull me in that direction.

Using 80% of my bankroll allows me to go after every type of bet I want keying my horse. If things work out, I can hit all the exotics. If not I can hit some. Nobody and I mean nobody bets too much on a winner. It’s a sinking feeling to be right on a key horse on a big weekend like this and not capitalize. 80% of your bankroll minimizes that risk.

The other 20% is what I will use for fishing, stabs, and some lighter action. Does that at times save the day. Absolutely. It keeps one in a spot to catch that longer priced play or sequence but also leaves you strong for the major wager.

On days like these, there is always a lot more recreational and uninformed money in the pools. This is a tremendous help to us. Beat a favorite or two which should always be a goal, and your value increases significantly than what it would on say a regular day or even weekend. Use that. It can’t hurt and can only help.

We are all usually locked and loaded by now. I try and hold off final opinions as long as possible. Will the weather change? Will there be a real bias? Will someone get white hot or maybe ice cold? These intangibles can give you an edge over players who lock in early and surely over the recreational money. Take whatever edges you can get.

Log into your AmWager accounts and attack! All the best and enjoy these great cards.

#PBK

 

 

Connaught Cup Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:00 PM Eastern

 

Savage Battle is a lightly raced five year old with just 15 races under his belt, nine of those turf sprints. He has a fantastic record of 4-1-2 in those nine races, including a runner-up effort in the Colonel Power Stakes at Fair Grounds in February and he may be coming in under the radar opening at 8 to 1 here. It’s a big sign he’s live as Patrick Husbands gets on and the horse earned a strong 108 Equibase figure winning a turf sprint in January before earning a 106 figure in the stakes in February, with those figures competitive with the best in here. He comes from mid-pack and in this race with there likely to be a sizzling early pace battle he could get first run on the tiring pacesetters and come home on top. Shakhimat, who has done all his winning when leading from the start, has to go hard for the lead from the rail, but with need-the-lead types Yorkton and El Tormenta in the field there’s little chance any of the three “early” pace types gets the lead they need to succeed and a big chance they set up the stalkers and closers, foremost among them Savage Battle.

 

Eminent Force won’t go to post anywhere near his 20/1 starting odds with DaSilva named to ride but anything above 4/1 would be betting odds for me because this nine year old with 15 career wins proved he still has what it takes when rallying for second in April following three months off. He won in his third start of the 2018 meeting and this is only his second but the debut was at this seven furlong trip (on the main track) and he’s earned 10 wins from 32 starts on turf in his career. In short, I feel it would be a mistake to leave Eminent Force off any tickets we play involving this race particularly as he too may be up close with Savage Battle early and in a position to be in the exacta at the least down to the wire.

 

Curlin’s Honor and Emmaus both are win contenders and horses we must use on exacta and trifecta tickets, but opening at odds of 5 to 2 and 2 to 1, respectively, it’s tough to make a case to wager on either two win as neither is a standout. Curlin’s Honor rallied from 10th to third in the Cartier Stakes on the main track last month and last year missed by a neck in the Paradise Creek Stakes at this distance on turf in New York, but both were against three year olds only so he’s not yet proven at this level, or even on turf (where his record is 0-1-0 in three races). Emmaus lost by a neck in his U.S. debut in late April in a stakes at Belmont, which followed six months off, so he’s likely to improve, but to be honest with Moran riding so cold (1 for 62 at the meeting) it’s hard to bet this talented horse to win. Moran has 10 second place finishes at the meeting, and there’s nothing to suggest anything more than his current cold streak is just that, but it must be taken into account when considering a win bet at low odds.

 

Bets:

Win Bets: Savage Battle to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Consider an additional win bet on Eminent Force at 4 to 1 or more, for a smaller amount than on Savage Battle, adding a place bet at 7 to 1 or higher.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Exactas:

Instead of a win bet on Savage Battle and/or a win/place bet on Eminent Force we can consider these exactas: Savage Battle and Eminent Force over ALL (for $1) and then ALSO, the opposite, which is ALL over Savage Battle and Eminent Force.

 

Exactas: Box Savage Battle, Eminent Force and Curlin’s Honor.

Box Savage Battle, Eminent Force and Emmaus. (The strategy with these two exactas is twofold, to split the favorites as the exacta between Curlin’s Honor and Emmaus will be the lowest paying of all the possible combinations, and to maximize profit, hoping that Savage Battle and Eminent Force finish first and second, in which case we cash the bet twice).

 

Trifecta: Box Savage Battle, Eminent Force, Curlin’s Honor and Emmaus.

 

Race 6 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern

 

This is a wide open maiden race which leads into a good betting stakes race so we can take some shots here as well as in doubles to race 7. King Jack appears to be a live first time starter because Smith is riding for Hollendorfer and Smith doesn’t need to ride maidens at this stage of his phenomenal career. Smith and Hollendorfer are 9 for 25 together in the last year and sire Jimmy Creed’s first time starters have won nearly 25% of the time. Best of all the colt put in a very sharp 58.2 five furlong workout, from the gate, on May 10, followed by a pair of six furlong “maintenance” workouts. On Easy Street ran on from fifth and last to second into a runaway seven length winner no horse was going to beat last month. The effort earned a 92 Equibase figure better than it usually takes to win at this level so he must be respected. Music to My Ears finished second in a big effort last month BUT that was at five furlongs on turf and so there’s no guarantee he can run as well on dirt, particularly as the effort only earned a 76 figure. Baffert’s Morning Snow is likely to go favorited because Baffert continues to win at an astronomical level with first time starters. Over the last two years, Baffert has saddled 97 first time starters in straight maiden races, and 48 (effectively 50%) of those have won. The rail can be intimidating so I don’t think he’s a standout and the works, although okay, aren’t that fast, but we can’t ignore that percentage Baffert has put forth. Last but not least, Moana Luna is a first time starter from the barn of veteran Headley, who also bred the gelding and owns him. Although he’s a Cal-Bred in open company, he fits as he’s a FULL BROTHER to $477K winner Cyclometer, who won stakes in open company. One of the dam’s first time starters won and another finished second. Canadian Luck doesn’t have flashy works but they’re consistent and although his sire (Distorted Humor) is known for producing two-turn runners, believe it or not he has sired 18% first out winners in sprints over the last five years.

 

Bets:

Win Bets: King Jack and Moana Luna to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. Add a place bet on Moana Luna at odds of 5 to 1 or more.  

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Doubles: Morning Snow, Moana Luna, Music to My Ears, King Jack, Canadian Luck and On Easy Street in Race 6 with Seranitsa and Hostess in Race 7.

 

Honeymoon Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7 PM Eastern

 

Seranitsa makes her first start in California after being privately purchased. She has only run three times on turf and all were good efforts, first beaten a neck in January, then winning on March 2 before a third of six finish in a stakes on turf at the end of March. She’s now in the Drysdale barn and the veteran trainer has been sneakily good the past few months, shipping horses all over for wins in stakes. The fact Prat takes the call is a BIG sign in my opinion, because Drysdale and Prat are 10 for 50 in stakes the past five years and Drysdale is very good at getting horses to run well off these kinds of 60-90 day layoffs. The race Seranitsa finished third in on March 30 has become a very productive race, as the winner won a stakes two races later, the runner-up won a stakes two races later and the fourth and fifth finishers finished second in stakes out of that race. The 98 Equibase figure Seranitsa earned is AS GOOD or better than every other horse’s last race figure and she’s moving up a lot off a 6% winning trainer as well.

 

Hostess won the Providencia Stakes at this nine furlong trip in her U.S. debut in April and following six months off, no easy task. Then, when shortening up to a mile, her late kick may have been dulled as she only managed fourth. It may also have been the jockey change as Van Dyke rode her to victory and Blanc rode her last month. Van Dyke gets back on and the filly gets the same outside post she got when winning so that effort appears very repeatable. The Providencia earned her a 106 figure which is the highest figure earned by any horse in the race, period, so she deserves a ton of respect as a win contender.

 

Maxim Rate finished a nose behind Hostess in the Providencia then won the shorter Senorita in which Hostess finished fourth so she has a shot as she is proven at the distance. Lady Prancealot was a pair of noses shy of winning in the Providencia and a half-length behind Maxim Rate in the Senorita so can’t be ignored either. Over Emphasize is the new face and ran well when second at this nine furlong turf trip last out against allowance company, with a competitive 97 figure.

 

Bets:

Win bets: Seranitsa and Hostess to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

 

Exactas:

Seranitsa over Lady Prancealot, Over Emphasize, Maxim Rate and Hostess, THEN ALSO the opposite, which is Lady Prancealot, Over Emphasize, Maxim Rate and Hostess over Seranitsa.

 

Seranitsa and Hostess over Seranitsa, Lady Prancealot, Over Emphasize, Maxim Rate and Hostess.

Seranitsa, Lady Prancealot, Over Emphasize, Maxim Rate and Hostess over Seranitsa and Hostess.

 

Penn Mile Stakes – Race 11 at Penn National - Post Time 7:50 PM Eastern

 

The Black Album will be my choice to post the upset in this year's Penn Mile Stakes, if he can break with the field as he failed to do in the American Turf Stakes last month, and if he can run down likely lone front runner A Thread of Blue. The Black Album won the Prix la Rochette Stakes at Longchamp in France last September and did so gamely by a nose to earn a 104 Equibase Figure which would be very competitive with horses likely to go to the post at much lower odds in this race if repeated. Highly regarded when imported to the U.S. last fall, The Black Album was entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf then took the winter off. When he returned to the races, the colt ran very well when third and beaten just a length in the Transylvania Stakes in April in spite of likely being in need of a race off the long layoff. Following that, The Black Album ran in the 13 horse American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby day. In that race, he hopped at the start and was away 12th in the field. After lagging nearly last for the first six furlongs, The Black Album rallied boldly on the turn and was within two lengths of the lead with less than an eighth of a mile to go. At that point, the energy he had expended during the rally caused him to make no further progress although he fought to the wire, finishing seventh but beaten the same two and one-half lengths by the winner he was behind the leader at the eighth pole. In the Penn Mile, if The Black Album can break better to race mid-pack in the early stages, and if he can put in the late kick he showed last year in France, he has a good chance to post the upset.

 

A Thread of Blue earned his first three wins leading from start to finish, including when taking the 11 horse Dania Beach Stakes field to task in February with a then career-best 99 figure. Then, for the first time in his career, A Thread of Blue showed a new dimension when stalking in third position for the first half-mile in the Palm Beach Stakes in March, taking over on the turn and winning by three-quarters of a length. The 102 figure earned in the Palm Beach was a new career-best effort, which he nearly duplicated in the tougher American Turf Stakes last month. In that race, A Thread of Blue established the pace easily in a field of 13 and was very game to the wire even when passed, beaten three-quarters of a length at the end and finishing a head in front of the third place finisher to earn a 101 figure. Jockey Luis Saez has been aboard for the colt's last four races including three wins and from an inside post, horse and rider are likely to take advantage of that position to go for the lead from the start. As such, A Thread of Blue has every right to return to stakes winning form in the Penn Mile.

 

Forty Under won his first two races around two-turns on turf last year, the second and third starts of his career, including the Pilgrim Stakes in September. After a sixth place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Forty Under took the winter off. Returning off more than five months off rest, his second place effort in the Woodhaven Stakes in April was a good effort and one he can improve upon, perhaps back to graded stakes winning form.

 

Bets:

The Black Album to win at odds of 4 to 1 or higher, adding a place bet at odds of 7 to 1 or more.

 

Exactas: Box The Black Album, A Thread of Blue and Forty Under.