Race 7 at Gulfstream - Post Time 3:03 PM Eastern Gran Causeway will likely go to post favored depending on how heavily bet the two Pletcher first time starters (Bebeau and French Revolution) get, BUT Thetrashmanscoming is the best bet (to win at least) of four contenders to win this race. Thetrashmanscoming is finally coming around after running his best race yet last month in his fifth career start. At the same one-turn mile trip as today's race, he broke slowly, REALLY slowly, to be last of 12 and 17 lengths back, but by the end he was third and moving nicely. He is bred exceptionally well as six of the other seven foals of his dam broke their maidens in straight maiden races on dirt like this one and the 88 last race Equibase figure is the best in the field so if he improves upon it he can…
We have all heard that old silly question about if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is there to hear it, does it make a sound? That is what the recently concluded Global Symposium on Racing reminds me of. Salud to Pat Cummings, Steve Byk, and some others for accurately pointing out some of the issues plaguing the Sport of Kings but all due respect given, identifying the problems has never been the issue. Dealing with and eradicating them has. I don’t see where having even a thousand symposiums will help if nobody is listening — nobody who calls any shots anyway. Several issues are hurting the game that can literally be fixed by post time today if we had the right shot callers. For example, how difficult is it to stagger post times between racetracks? It is not hard, I assure you but you need people who…
Race 4 at Aqueduct - Post Time 1:47 PM Eastern In a one-turn mile maiden race for New York breds, I'm going to take a shot with Overland, who opens at 10/1. When I see a horse in the top four in a previous race with a huge margin of defeat such as the 13 3/4 length margin behind the winner Overland was first time out, I take a quick look at the company line because once in a while that margin is deceiving if the winner or winner and runner-up dominated by many lengths. That is the case with Overland's debut on 10/20 at Belmont at the level, because the winner won by almost seven lengths and there was another four length gap to the third horse. In reality, Overland actually ran okay, passing horses from 10th to 4th over the course of the race. He's been gelded since…
Remsen Stakes - Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:12 PM Eastern Jungle Warrior, Network Effect and Maximus Mischief comprise the bulk of the probability to win this year's Remsen, but only one of the three is a good win bet and that is Jungle Warrior, who opens at 8/1 compared to 7/5 for Network Effect and 6/5 for Maximus Mischief. The key to those decent odds holding up is this colt is running on dirt for the first time after two turf races to start his career. He debuted in August with a big effort when rallying from last of 11 to win by a head then he ran okay when finishing 5th after being 12th early in the Grade 2 Natalma Stakes on the turf at a mile. He did improve his Equibase figure even though 5th in the Natalma, to 87, a far cry from the…
As the end of the year approaches, you’d think racing fans and bettors would be focused on the positives we’ve seen on the racetrack the past 11 months. We’ve definitely had our share of performances that would be considered outstanding in any era. Enable takes the Arc and Breeders’ Cup Turf. Justify takes the coveted Triple Crown. Accelerate has a championship caliber older horse year. Monomoy Girl almost runs the table capped by a win verse older in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Obviously, the game can still produce. Maybe not on a Wednesday afternoon but all in all we have had some good racing. While some are appreciative and focused on these performances, the majority of fans, as reflected by my observations primarily on social media and when I go to the track and talk to people, is consumed with negativity. Most of it is well founded and unfortunately, it…
Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship - Race 7 at Aqueduct - Post Time 2:50 PM Eastern Dubini is the KEY to a big profit in the race, opening at 15/1, if he runs as he did in this race last year when 2nd, beaten 3/4 of a length, at 59 to 1. He's in fine form off a pair of runner-up finishes in Turf Sprints, last out to a very tough horse in Smokin' Nitro, who might have won a stakes last week if half the gate didn't open when it sprung for the rest of the field. First or second in 8 of 13 career races, all turf sprints, the 122 figure Dubini earned in this race last year is as good as heavy favorite Disco Partner (even money on the morning line) earned in his two best efforts this year, with the rest of the field FAR SLOWER, and…
Race 7 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:17 PM Eastern This could get a little complicated because of the snow and rain that fell Thursday through Thursday night but with a day and one-half of fair weather, I'm hoping the race stays on the turf as scheduled. Greek Alphabet gets preference because in a field in which at least five horses have a decent probability to win, he opens at ridiculously high 15/1 morning line odds. Like most, Greek Alphabet won a maiden special weight and NW1X allowance level race to belong at this NW2X condition and like many, one of his wins came on grass. That was his maiden win and it was his ONLY turf start to date among five career races, in July at Belmont and in that race Greek Alphabet ran professionally, leading from start to finish on solid fractions in a field of six with…
I’ve said many times as students and fans of the Sport of Kings we have been quite fortunate the last decade or so. While the game has had a fair share of problems and then some, we have not lacked truly great racehorses. The accomplishments of some of these runners would be superlative in any era. That’s saying something in a game with a history like ours and a list of equine stars miles long. Who would have thought in a year where we had a Triple Crown winner there would be a debate amongst turf writers and racing’s social media ranks over Horse of the Year. What would normally be a foregone conclusion is now a debate due to the early retirement of Justify. That left the door open for Accelerate, and he came crashing through with a decisive victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I’m not going to…
Juvenile Fillies Sprint Stakes – Race 5 at Gulfstream Park West- Post Time 2 PM Eastern Lovesick opens at 9 to 2 odds and if those odds hold up, or even if she drifts down to about 2 to 1, the odds could prove to be a gift as I think she's an absolute standout in this eight horse field of Florida breds. In her debut on August 19, Lovesick made short work of a similar field when leading but lapped-on in the early stages and continuing powerfully to the wire in front by a length and one-half. The 80 Equibase Figure doesn't do justice to how well she ran and now three months later, more mature physically and mentally, she's not facing much tougher than she did over the summer as she beat "open" (not restricted) company that day and is facing statebreds here. This gal is bred to…
If you are in this game at any level, at some point you are going to be humbled. There are two types of horse players; those that have been humbled, and those that will be humbled. As with many aspects of life, it comes down to how you respond to these types of things. I suggest picking yourself up, dusting yourself off, and getting back into the fight. If you backed Abel Tasman in the recently run Breeders' Cup Distaff, it was a humbling experience. While after the race she was easy to knock off the last poor performance, but to do that prior to the race, with conviction you'd have to believe two things. First, that Bob Baffert brings horses to big dances at less than their optimum. Second, that you are smarter than he is at accessing a horses' chances. Both not likely, the latter especially, when it…