For more races this weekend, including the Awad Stakes (Race 10 on Saturday) at Belmont and some pick 3/pick 4 strategies, plus a couple of races on Sunday, October 29, listen to the Key Races & Bets Podcast at ubercapper.podbean.com or download the Podbean app from the Apple App Store or Google Play Store for Android. Athenia Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont – Post time 3:43 PM ET Thundering Sky opens at ridiculously high 15/1 odds given she just won a $100K stakes, albeit restricted and more importantly won the $200K Pebbles Stakes last year. That win last time out came in her 4th start of the year and now that she's rediscovered winning form she has every right to run big again. Behind her in that last race were multiple stakes winner Bar of Gold, who won her next start taking the Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes, and…
With the advent of Breeders’ Cup 2017 looming, I think it’s important to remember that handicapping is only part of the process of a successful day at the races. If you are not spending much time structuring your wagers over the two days, then as a horseplayer, you are doing yourself a disservice. Here are some points to keep in mind: 1. Know your bankroll. For Breeders’ Cup, the number of betting options can be overwhelming. Appropriate and partition your bankroll for BOTH Friday and Saturday. Worst case scenario, how much are you willing to lose? We all want to win but be disciplined enough to know when NOT to run to the ATM. 2. Find your strongest opinions over the two days and work backwards from there. If you can single a horse in a race, you need to maximize that opinion. Do you hammer an exacta or trifecta?…
In addition to this blog, you can get analysis and recommended wagers for other races this weekend on my Key Races & Bets Podcast at ubercapper.podbean.com This weekend's podcast will be published on Saturday morning and contain some of these races and in addition I will be tackling a couple of race on Sunday so please listen in. Ticonderoga Stakes – Race 4 at Belmont – Post time 2:01 PM ET Broken Border and Feeling Bossy are both trained by very high percentage (nearly 30% wins in 2017) Jason Servis, and if a top conditioner like Servis thinks both can win I won't argue so although they are not coupled for betting purposes (having different owners) I will consider them as an entry and bet them both. Broken Border just won at 7 furlongs on the Belmont turf course, her THIRD STRAIGHT win on the course, with just a loss…
Saturday - October 14 Keeneland Race (9) G1 Queen Elizabeth II A highly contentious race that is stacked with a full field of eleven three-year-olds looking to take grade one honors. While the Brown team of Uni and New Money Honey form an imposing tandem, I will try to beat them both with #2 Proctor’s Ledge(9-2). The daughter of Ghost Zapper has reeled off two graded stakes victories in row and I believe she still has room to improve. She will have to in order to beat #7 Wuheida (4-1) who ran 4th just beaten a half a length in the G1 Prix de l’Opera at Chantilly two weeks ago. Wuheida has run five times in her career, winning two, but the class is there as four of those were group one races. Of Brown’s pair I prefer #10 Uni who I believe has gotten better in each of her…
Get more analysis and recommended wagers for other races this weekend on my Key Races & Bets Podcast Futurity Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post time 4:46 PM ET Barry Lee and Happy Like a Fool are the two main contenders in my opinion, both with about a 33% probability to win, which equates to 2 to 1 odds. Considering Barry Lee opens at 5/1 compared to 5/2 for Happy Like a Fool, I'll start with him. Barry Lee won like a good thing in his career debut on 7/14 then folded like a cheap tent in the Saratoga Special one month later. However, he showed the poor effort at Saratoga to be a fluke when winning the Arlington Washington Futurity on 9/9 with a mature rally from fifth of seven in the early stages. He adds blinkers for the Futurity but I think that is much more…
Friday – Keeneland Race 8 – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Solid field of 11 sprinting six furlongs on the main track. If the #11 Whitmore (3-1) of the spring shows up today, then everyone else is running for 2nd place. That being said I don’t trust him and am not one to play a short-priced favorite who is coming into this race off two subpar performances. I landed on #2 Threefiveinia (6-1) who should sit a good stalking position in a race loaded with early heat. I’ll key the Brown trainee with #4 Loose On the Town (12-1), #7 Favorite Tale (6-1), #10 It’s the Journey (12-1) and #11 Whitmore. Saturday – Keeneland Race 7 First Lady A salty field of seven going the flat mile on the turf is led by the morning line favorite #4 Roca Rojo (2-1). The Strategic Prince mare has won 6 of 10 in…
Cross Country Pick 4 – Starts at 4:13 PM with Race 8 at Belmont Park, the Champagne Stakes Ticket A Leg 1 (Belmont Park race 8) – Bahamian, Aveenu Malcainu, Honorable Treasure, Enticed Leg 2 (Keeneland race 8) – Ezmosh, Bourbon Resolution, Enticed, Free Drop Billy, Givemeaminit Leg 3 (Belmont race 10) – Diversify, Rally Cry Leg 4 (Keeneland race 9) – Suedois, Mondialiste, Miss Temple City, Heart to Heart The cost at the $0.50 minimum bet amount is $60 or $64, depending on which race Enticed (who is entered in two races) runs in. Ticket B Leg 1 (Belmont Park race 8) – Bahamian, Aveenu Malcainu, Honorable Treasure, Enticed Leg 2 (Keeneland race 8) – Ezmosh, Bourbon Resolution, Enticed, Free Drop Billy, Givemeaminit Leg 3 (Belmont race 10) – Diversify, Rally Cry, Pavel, Keen Ice Leg 4 (Keeneland race 9) – Suedois, Mondialiste The cost at the $0.50 minimum…
Do you enjoy playing multi-race bets? Whether it’s a pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, or the elusive pick 6, you should be maximizing your opinion and budget every time you bet into these pools using the ABC wagering method. Now, I am not talking about learning the alphabet. The ABC method of structuring tickets should be the starting point for playing multi-race bets. Steve Crist, in his best-selling book Exotic Betting, wrote about this methodology of betting. Not only did he coin the ABC method, but he has shown that over the years if you are an astute horseplayer this is the way to maximize your opinion. So what is the ABC method you ask? Well, first let’s identify what it is not. If you are not using the ABC wagering method then you are playing the “caveman” ticket-meaning you are assigning the same weight(chances of winning) to each…
Saturday Keeneland Race 9 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes Keeneland’s race of the day Saturday is the Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes going the marathon distance of a mile and half over the turf. The race is named after a central Kentucky stream that is 18.3 miles long and runs through several counties with its two primary forks taking the shape of antlers. The race was first run at 1 1/8th miles in 1986 and then lengthened to today’s distance in 1996. Notable winners include Manila (1987), Lure (1994), and Musketier (2010 & 2011). This year’s edition features a competitive, full field of eleven older horses although Mike Maker, who has a superfecta of runners, has already stated he may scratch Taghleeb (4-1) and Roman Approval (20-1). The forecast for Lexington on Saturday shows several rounds of rain which means the turf might be rated “good” or “yielding.” I have handicapped the…
Friday Keeneland Race 9 Maker’s 46 Mile The highlight race on Friday’s Keeneland card is the Grade 1 Maker’s 46 Mile. Unlike the bourbon Maker’s 46, which has a smooth taste with hints of both vanilla and caramel, the race came up quite salty with a highly competitive field of 12. The race could be billed as an East vs. West Coast contest as we have four shippers from California, including What a View (5-1), Bolo (5-1), Conquest Enforcer (12-1), and Calculator (10-1), taking on the East Coast challengers, including the morning line favorite Heart to Heart (3-1). The six-year-old son of English Channel has had a stellar career, winning 12 of his 27 lifetime starts with earnings exceeding $1 million. There is no secret to his success as he likes to set the pace and run his competition into the ground. He is 6 of 13 at the one…