W.L. McKnight Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:12 PM EasternThis McKnight Stakes starts a sequence of three stakes races with a world of possibilities, even the Pegasus World Cup (dirt), Race 12 after the scratches of Omaha Beach and Spun to Run. This race brings together a field of 12 at the marathon mile and one-half trip and many have run at this distance or longer, some pretty well. However, there are slight separators in my opinion such that there are two groups of contenders here. The first group, consisting of Salute the Colonel, Red Knight and Spooky Channel, gets slight preference over the second group, consisting of Temple, Apreciado and Cross Border. Excellent marathon turf trainer Maker has four here in Apreciado, Carom, Cross Border and Temple and that muddies things up a bit because he’s very good at spotting horses for these types…
I always thought the great equalizer between sports betting and horse racing was value. With horses, you can go after wagers that return multiple times on the dollar. In sports, you are usually looking at close to even money unless you go after underdog money lines which coincidentally is my preference.Lately, it is becoming more and more difficult to find value in horse racing. You are lucky to get over the parlay on multi-race wagers when it used to be a given. Three or four times the parlay was the norm. That made those bets worthwhile. Today, between the syndicates, sharks, and low denominations you are up against it. It’s a lousy feeling hitting a pick 4 or 5 that should pay 4K and it comes back $950. We see this more and more and it is not likely to change soon.Adjusting and adapting is absolutely a prerequisite to beating…
Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:06 PM EasternI think four horses combined have the bulk of the probability to win this race. Put another way if this race was run 100 times, one of these four would win about 90 times in 100 in my opinion. The four are Muggsmatic, Second Mate, Curlin’s Honor and March to the Arch. Of the quartet, preference should go to Muggsmatic because he’s the only one of the group to have run in December, the rest coming back from two or three month layoffs. Muggsmatic won that last start, the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes, at this distance on this course, and he not only did so with a career best 108 Equibase figure and Lopez up then as now, but he also earned the win right off the claim by Jason Servis. The gelding has now…
Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:03 PM EasternI think four horses can win this race – Masterday, Moon Over Miami, Tiz Rye Time and Sounion. The first and third of the quartet open at double digit odds and both have chances to succeed much greater than those odds suggest. Masterday won as he pleased in his debut in November in a field of 12 and decently regarded at 6 to 1. Sent to post at 9 to 2 in a first level allowance like this one, at a mile, in December he was moving up fantastically on the inside when steadied so hard he had to go back to last of eight, losing all chance. It wasn’t Luis Saez’ fault, but nevertheless today Masterday gets a jockey change to Lopez which can’t hurt. As a son of New Year’s Day, a hot sire in 2019, Masterday should…
Glitter Woman Stakes - Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:30 PM EasternTale of Success, Sound Machine and Spanish Point comprise the top three contenders to win this six and one-half furlong sprint for three year old fillies. Of the trio, Tale of Success is the ONLY one playable to win if her morning line odds of 8/1 hold up (or anything close), compared to 3 to 1 and 5 to 2 for the other two. Tale of Success showed a ton of maturity winning her only start on 11/29, relaxing in fourth/fifth early then moving up to lead by a length at the eighth pole before coasting to the wire on top. She’s a half-sister to stakes winner C Z Rocket so there’s no doubt she’s got the quality to run well, improving nicely off the experience of a race and getting John Velazquez to ride as…
It is the time of year for fans of the Sport of Kings to turn their attention to the Kentucky Derby, and the top three-year-old horses. Generally, I like to start fresh, and I overlook or take with a grain of salt much of the two-year-old form. It doesn’t mean much now, and it will probably mean less come the first Saturday in May.Over at Aqueduct the other day we got to watch Independence Hall win the one turn Jerome going a mile in 1:37.2. He left some of his race in the paddock, still won easily, and made the Derby radar of some watchers. Not mine. Nothing about him looks like a Kentucky Derby horse to me. A nice horse, sure, a derby winner, I highly doubt it. We’ll see some other three-year-olds try and make the Derby radar screen Saturday at Gulfstream Park and also at Santa Anita. Bob…
For me, a lot goes into choosing the right single in any multi-race bet. With the exception of a 20-cent jackpot bet, I always like to have at least one single. Obviously, the most important thing about a single is that it wins. If it doesn’t, all else fails. Most multi-race bettors look for their separation or edge in races where they go deep or spread or even use all. I seldom use all. I always look for at least a few horses I can eliminate. Have I been burned, of course, but who hasn’t? In the long run, it helps make scores and have tickets more than once. Eliminating as many losing bets as possible is crucial to the P and L statement at year or meets end. It is easy to see the logic in creating separation or trying to create separation in a leg where you spread or use…
San Antonio Stakes - Race 5 at Santa Anita - Post Time 4 PM Eastern, 1 PM PacificMidcourt appears highly probable to win his third straight stakes race, second graded stakes, following his return from two months off at the end of October. He’s won four in a row, starting in June, the last win on 11/23 his best effort yet when dominating by almost six lengths in the Native Diver Stakes five weeks ago. He’s earned back-to-back 114 Equibase figures, which gives him a “Double Advantage” because those two are better than the last two of any horse in the field. He can win on the lead (as he did in the Native Diver) or he can win from off the pace as he did when rallying from seven lengths back to win the Comma to the Top Stakes in October, so there are no concerns dependent upon various…
As a horseplayer you have to look out for number 1. That’s you. Believe me nobody else is going to do it. Amidst all the reform we hear about today, granted all of it needed and long overdue, you don’t hear much about helping the bettor. The bettor true to past performances will be the first to get put on the back burner or worse swept under the rug. Beating this game as a horseplayer has always been hard. It is harder today than ever before. All the reform in the world won’t save the sport if nothing is done to help the current bettors, and attract some new ones. How does a bettor look out for number 1? There are several ways we can do this. Be selective and pick your spots. Remember you are not obligated to bet every day, every race at every track. Bet the races…
My Charmer Stakes - Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3 PM EasternTake These Chains can post the upset, opening at 12/1. She won four of her first eight races through November 2018 and is winless in four since BUT two of those were grade 3 stakes and the other was a comeback turf sprint in October. There a few keys to her returning to form good enough to win, the first being that trainer Colebrook does very well with horses coming back from two to six months off as she is and another is Colebrook uses Saez sparingly but they do very well together. The rest appears to have done her a lot of good as she put in a sharp half mile (47.4) workout coming into the race, and her best effort, when fourth of nine and beaten a few lengths to Vasilika in the Grade…