Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 9 2020Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:30 PM EasternHoney Won’t gets a BIG jockey change from Meneses to Saez after a poor sixth place effort to similar last month. That followed two and one-half months off and a sharp five length win over the course. A lightly raced four year old, he’s won three of 12 on grass but more importantly two were routes at Gulfstream and with a rock solid 109 Equibase Speed Figure effort, best in the field, to run back to from the 1/26/20 effort he could be the one to beat. Shootin the Breeze also makes his second start off a layoff, finishing fourth both before and after the rest. That last effort with a 100 figure, combined with Rosario getting on, gives him a good shot to improve and be a strong factor…
What do you do when you see a horse like Charlatan in a race like the first division of Saturday’s split Arkansas Derby? If you don’t think he is the highly probable winner, then you don’t have all that much of a problem other than coming up with the horse you think will beat him. If you do like him, are you willing to take considerably less than even money on him when logically there are some questions? He’s stretching out. He’s running in a new state over a new track. He’s moving into a stake. Yet to most, he looks awfully good as a likely winner.So the question remains if you like him, what do you do?Many bettors will simply not take that short a price on any horse. I can understand that and even relate to it. Personally, I don’t have that “rule” to my play. I adapt…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 2 2020Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:21 PM EasternKid Bourbon appears to have a decent edge in this race but being as this is a first level allowance and he’s just one-for-seven we have to look at some others as well, at least for double and pick 3 tickets. Kid Bourbon finished fast from fifth to second against slightly tougher (no optional claiming component) last time out and Lopez sticks as he moves from turf to dirt. He earned his only win on dirt in a one turn mile, just like this race, last December and a repeat of that effort could be good enough to get him career win #2. Beau Luminarie won by seven lengths at the trip one before last over the track then completely regressed to finish ninth of 12 last time out. Saez…
Last week I tried to illustrate why I do not bet to place and how I alternately structure my wagers to cover a horse I think can win, but also who might just hit the board. I liked Ollie’s Candy in the Apple Blossom. She ran great, almost too good to lose, but she was second beaten a long nose on the side. She was bet down to 9-1, still a nice price, and I would have done much better had she won, but no complaints.Ollie’s Candy paid $7.60 for place. The $1 exacta was $35.90, the 50 cent triple was $128.05, the 10 cent superfecta came back $117.65. I think it is easy to see where the value or more lucrative wagers were. Ce Ce who was one of the favorites won, but the exotics were still a lot better than the place bet.At the end of the day,…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For April 25Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:48 PM EasternFreedom Force finished second to an eight length winner in his debut on 2/28, in a one turn mile race then cut back to six furlongs on 3/21 for career start number two. He pressed the pace in third in that sprint, moved up to a half-length from the leader at the top of the stretch then tired. Those two preps set him up exceptionally well for a route today, particularly if the race stays on turf as scheduled. He put in a turf workout recently and being a son of American Pharoah should take to turf like a duck takes to water. A STATS Race lens query shows me sons and daughter of the champion have won seven of 24 races when trying turf for the first time in a…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For April 18Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:53 PM EasternMintd was coming back from a pretty long layoff of 20 months off last month yet won like a good thing at the one lower NW1X allowance level, rallying from ninth of 10 after breaking slowly and going wide into the first turn. She put in two very strong workouts, on grass, since raced at Palm Meadows and gets Gaffalione for a very sharp trainer in Walsh. As she’s logical to improve second off the long layoff and has been off for 42 days, which reduces any chance of regression, she gets slight preference among three win contenders here. Rideforthecause also makes her second start off a layoff. She returned from three months off on March 27 and ran fourth from start to finish. She improved significantly second off a 14…
Smart BettingWhat is smart betting for one may not be for another. It all depends on why you play the game. If you play for fun, or just for the action, or entertainment with “disposable income,” if such a thing exists, then it really doesn’t matter. If you play to win and to beat the game, then it matters as much as anything. You will have to make smart bets. Not all bets are smart.Personally, I have never understood or been a fan of a place bet. Many people are. I cannot even recall the last place bet I have made, and there may be only two or three of them if that in my wagering career to date. First and foremost, I handicap who I think will win a race, not come second, and I structure my plays around that opinion. Second place is the first loser. That said, there…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For April 11Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:54 PM EasternGogo Shoes showed a lot of maturity winning last month in her second career start, stalking in second and third early and drawing off by four lengths in a field of 12. She’s got a lot of improving to do and the 80 last race Equibase figure is the third best in the field. The top last race figure horse in the field, Boerne (88) earned her win (also in career start #2) leading from start to finish and gets the rail. Lastchanceforlove earned an 81 figure and also when leading from start to finish. I’m going to root for a big pace battle between Lastchanceforlove and Boerne which puts Gogo Shoes in a great spot to win her second in a row. Chart won after stalking in second, in her…
Stay Tuned: Racing Will ResumeNobody is sure exactly when, but at some point, racing will resume in earnest. There will be changes, some things will be different, but the Sport of Kings will go on.There is something to be said for that fact alone. So many have said in the past few years racing was on the brink. There is no shortage of threatening issues. Maybe in a strange way, this sort of hiatus from what one could argue was over saturation will help the sport.Maybe track management will see less is more. Fewer tracks running head to head can lead to increased handle. Without spreading itself thin all over the place maybe tracks can focus on promoting each other’s quality and opportunities and find a way to share the revenue. Well, we can dream anyway.When things go back full swing, what can we expect, and what can bettors capitalize…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For April 4Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:18 PM EasternLady Panda gets the ground saving rail and has a great stalking style in a race with at least three “need the lead” types (Callie California, Ms Headley and Yolanda’s Pride) likely to set a fast pace which helps her out a lot. I think we can ignore her first five races even though three were excellent. The reason is the only two races relevant to her chances to succeed today where her last two, both since adding blinkers. She rallied for second in the first of the two on 1/31 then on 3/6 next out she rallied from fifth to draw off late, at the same mile trip at this race and under Gaffalione, who rides here. The 90 Equibase figure earned is better than BOTH favorites, Ghostly Beauty and…