Friday, 11 January 2019 13:54

Those Who Know

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January 11, 2019

Those Who Know

By: Jonathan Stettin


 

Is a tip ever a tip at the racetrack? If you ask a hundred bettors, I think you might be surprised at the assortment of answers that you get. I’ll come back to that. Most of you who know me know I spent many years going to the racetrack every day, without missing a beat, first in New York, and then in Florida. I’m talking decades. I once broke up with a girlfriend, or I should say she broke up with me because I had to bail on her sister’s wedding. Yes, she was in the bridal party, and it was a big deal. That said her sister chose to get married on the first Saturday in May. I did not miss many days.

For several seasons at the Gulfstream meet my Dad and I sat with a dear friend of ours Joe T., may they both rest in peace. My Dad would always make Joe laugh hysterically when he would ask us if we liked any of the horses we had running with Peter Walder. My Dad, also Joe, would say, “those who know don’t say, and those who say don’t know.” They would laugh together, and Joe T. would wave his finger and say, "You are right." Of course, Joe was never cold-shouldered out of any horse we liked, and I spent years chasing pick 6’s with him, and generally I don’t do partners.

Those who know don’t say, and those who say don’t know. Interesting. Does anybody ever really know at the races. Sure, there are a number of times a year where I feel I know the outcome of a race, but there are intangibles, as A Raving Beauty showed early in the last Saratoga meet. You can know, but they still have to run the race.

Once I claimed a horse named Am Flippy from of all people The Chief, Allen Jerkens. She had run a big number on the rags at two, and Peter and I grabbed her for $62,500. Obviously, we had some good expectations for her. She did not train as well as we hoped, but we were limited as to where to run her back. We used to win at a killer rate off the claim back then, and she would have taken money wherever we ran. With limited options, we ran back in an allowance race.

I remember walking into the track that day and almost immediately being approached by a well-known race-tracker. The man asked me if I liked anything and I said not especially. He then said he had some good information on a horse. He said he knew the owner, and he was a big bettor who flew in from New York to bet and watch his horse run. I honestly had no interest, and frankly could care less. I do and did my own thing and go by only my opinion. Nonetheless, to be polite I asked who is the horse? Am Flippy he said. Yes, he gave me a tip on my own horse, and he didn’t even know it.

Those who know don’t say, and those who say don’t know. This guy obviously didn’t know but he absolutely said. Am Flippy didn’t win that race. She was one of the few horses we never did any good with. Claiming from The Chief, not such a good idea.

One time in what seems like a lifetime ago, a well-known rider who is now a pretty well-known trainer, told my brother Joe DiMaio and I that he loved his horse at Belmont and was going to win this race the next day. The horse ran badly, and we didn’t even ask him, he volunteered the “info.” The next day when I saw him, I asked what happened, he looked at me with a degree of sincerity and disappointment in his face and said I should have read the form. What? Those who know don’t say and those who say don’t know.

If you have spent a degree of time on the backside of the racetrack you learn fast it is different than the frontside. It is a world all its own. Generally speaking, trainers and riders (both exercise and jockeys) don’t like to share insight they may have into how horses are doing with just anyone. Bettors are often viewed as outsiders who don’t understand the backside, and there is really no upside for people on the backside to share what they may know about a horse. Often, they know of problems a horse may have that aren’t public knowledge and don’t appear in past performances. This information is good to have when you can get it, but you usually won’t.

Trainers have a tendency to talk about their horses like people talk about their kids. They may like their horse, and know he is training excellently, but can they rate and rank the competition as objectively as a sharp handicapper?

The most solid type of in the know information at the track, with the exception of knowing who will not win for one reason or another, is when a trainer cheats, and I don’t mean with illegal drugs, or doing anything illegal at all. I am referring to those scenarios where a trainer runs a horse worth 50K first time out for 20K knowing they will jog, and nobody will claim them. Sure, you can catch someone better in there, but for the tag as opposed to a Maiden Special Weight, you probably won’t. If you are fortunate to know about one of those, that would be a real “tip” or edge. Most of us likely won’t know until after the race when it becomes very visible.

Sometimes a horse will overcome an issue that was hindering them, knowing can be an edge, but will you? Probably not but things even out in the long run, as the competition can always be tougher.

Tips, or inside information, is not a prerequisite to success at the races. Can it help, maybe at times but remember, those who know don’t say, and those who say don’t know.



Friday, 11 January 2019 13:10

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, January 12

Tropical Turf Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:45 PM Eastern

 

Heart to Heart might win. He might not. Opening at 4/5 we have incentive to take the latter opinion and try to beat him. Although his best effort can win this grade 3 stakes, he is coming back from three months off and was badly beaten in his 2018 debut last year at 3/5 over the course. He's an 8 year old now and we all know where he can be found after the gate opens, in front, but there are some serious questions of condition and his ability to win off the layoff.

 

 

With a vulnerable favorite the race becomes very playable, starting with Doctor Mounty, who opens at 10/1. The jockey change from Boyce to Castellano is HUGE (no knock on Boyce) and the horse's winning effort in the similar grade 3 Baltimore Washington Turf Cup in September at this mile trip (with a 109 Equibase figure) beats all of these on the square if Heart to Heart doesn't show up.

 

 

White Flag is just about as probable to win, except he's only run a mile or more a few times in his career and none were very good efforts. On the other hand, Jose Ortiz gets on for Clement and the horse has only run 12 times on grass, winning five including a 100K stakes like this one (although non-graded). That effort, in the Allied Forces Stakes in 2017, earned a 108 figure and he comes into the race off a win in a 125K stakes on turf, although at 6 furlongs.

 

 

Since we're adopting the strategy of "go big or go home" by trying to beat Heart to Heart, Mr Freeze and Your Only Man will be used on some exacta tickets and some pick 3 tickets. Mr Freeze (opening at 15/1) is trying turf for the first time and coming back from nearly four months off. The former is NOT an issue as ALL FOUR other foals of his dam have had success on the turf, most in stakes including Capitano ($576K) and Dilemma ($367K). Winner of the West Virginia Derby last summer, the colt may need a race but if not, or even if not ready to win but in good enough shape to hit the board, he could help us make a profit. Your Only Man opens at ridiculous odds of 30/1 as he's getting a jockey change to 2018 North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. He may appear cheap on paper as he raced in claiming races this spring and summer, but since moving to the Vitali barn he's run very well, second in his last two races, both over the course, with 106 Equibase figures good enough to in the money if repeated.

 

 

Bets: Doctor Mounty and White Flag to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

 

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

I'm also making a token win and place bet on Mr Freeze at 6 to 1 or more and a win, place and show bet on Your Only Man at 7 to 1 or more.

 

 

Exactas: Box Doctor Mounty, White Flag, Mr Freeze and Your Only Man

 

 

$0.50 Pick 3 ticket: Doctor Mounty and White Flag in race 9 with ALL in race 10 (a wide open maiden race) with Bellavais, Bombshell, Valedictorian and Rose Tree in race 11. (If all 11 run in race 10 the cost of the ticket is $44 but remember if we beat Heart to Heart the payoff could be huge).

 

Marshua's River Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:47 PM Eastern

 

There's a suspect favorite in this race as well, just not one which opens at 4 to 5. La Signare won the similar grade 3 Wonder Again Stakes last June off a two month layoff and in her 2nd U.S. start. She had won one of two (a maiden race) in Europe before a runner-up effort prior to the win and then she finished 10th off the win before going on the bench. There is NOTHING to suggest she's a standout here particularly as the Wonder Again effort earned her a 94 Equibase figure which is marginal at best in this field. Bombshell may be the most likely to win, having nearly won four in a row since joining the Delacour barn last July. She missed by a nose and a neck in one and won the other three, two on turf. For her return off less than two months, she gets red hot Saez and the win in July was off a four month rest so firing with a win off a layoff is in her wheelhouse.

 

 

Bellavais moved to the Pletcher barn last fall and off an 11 month layoff won a classified allowance at Belmont as if she'd never been away She took two months off and was 4th in the similar My Charmer Stakes here at GP last month BUT that was in a 14 horse field. With only seven others to contend with here she could return to the form shown right before that with a 105 figure effort rock solid among this group.

 

 

Valedictorian has won or placed in her last four turf starts, all routes. Two of those were minor stakes but her win in the 150K All Along Stakes last September was very strong and if repeated gives her a shot to earn her 10th career win. Rose Tree was 2 to 1 when winning easily on the main track here at GP last month. She's earned $325K, all on dirt or all-weather, but has fine turf breeding and is handled by veteran Jonathan Sheppard, so she cannot be ignored when considering our wagers in this race as she opens at 20/1.

 

 

Bets: Bombshell and Bellavais to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

 

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

 

Exacta: Box Bombshell, Bellavais, Valedictorian and Rose Tree.

 

 

La Canada Stakes - Race 8 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:04 PM Eastern/ 4:04 Pacific

 

K P Wildcat shipped into Santa Anita from New Mexico last week and put in a workout over the track to get familiar with it under the watchful eye of Jeff Mullins, who is listed as her trainer for the race. The mare comes back from just under two months away and won the Albuquerque Distaff Handicap off a similar layoff in August with the second best Equibase figure (100) of her career. She won another stakes the next month before a runner-up effort in October before being shortened up to a sprint for her final start of 2018, where she finished third. Jockey Roimes Chirinos, one of the top jockeys on the New Mexico circuit which includes Sunland Park, Zia Park and Ruidoso downs, has ridden K P Wildcat in 13 of her 21 career races, including nine of her 13 wins, and comes in to ride her in the La Canada which helps ensure another top effort good enough to win.

 

 

Escape Clause is another mare with an excellent winning spirit, evidenced by a 9 for 13 record in 2018 and an 8 for 11 record the previous year. Most of those races took place in Canada, but since coming to California in November she has held her own. When trying turf for the first time in the Kathryn Crosby Stakes in her Southern California debut, Escape Clause finished second but was awarded the win via a disqualification, before third and fourth place finishes in graded stakes. Her last three efforts yielded 105, 104 and 112 figures and her best previous effort on dirt earned her a 106 figure so Escape Clause has every right to be in the photo on the wire in this group.

 

 

True Royalty deserves respect as the only graded stakes winner in the field. In August at a mile on dirt, True Royalty earned a career best 96 figure when winning the Torrey Pines Stakes easily by three lengths. After that, True Royalty tried and failed when sixth in a turf sprint. She then stepped up to grade two company while trying some tough sprinters in the Raven Run Stakes, finishing 12th behind eventual Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Shamrock Rose. Considering the career best effort and stakes win in the Torrey Pines came the only time True Royalty raced in a two-turn race on dirt, she must be considered strongly as a win contender in this year's La Canada Stakes.

 

 

Bets: Bet one or two of these three which are at least 5 to 2 odds near post time: K P Wildcat, Escape Clause and True Royalty.

 

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

 

Double: K P Wildcat, Escape Clause and True Royalty in race 8 with R Cha Cha, Lauren's Ladd, Incensed, Cool Green and Baby Bear's Soup in race 9.

 

 

Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:34 Eastern / 4:34 Pacific

 

It appears Tough But Nice, Storminside, Elwood J and also-eligible Silver Summer will all want the early lead at any cost, setting up any number of stalkers and closers. R Cha Cha won at this downhill sprint trip under apprentice Figueroa three back in October and has finished 2nd in two since so rates top billing as he continues in top form and is proven at the trip and level.

 

 

Lauren's Ladd moved back to the Baltas barn after Jacobson left California in November and the trainer made the odd choice to race the horse a mile on dirt (originally scheduled for turf) even off a 3 month rest. I view that as a workout as the horse pressed the pace for 7 furlongs then tired. He has run big at the trip, winning in June then finishing 2nd, and now making his 2nd start off a layoff and shortening up after that tightener could be very tough.

 

 

Incensed has won twice down the hill, as recently as June, and won his last start, scheduled for turf but run on dirt. He's got a good stalking style and good post and Roman got him to relax in 4th early last out so if the same tactics are employed he could be getting first run on the tiring leaders and hang on today.

 

 

Cool Green gets the disadvantageous rail for the trip but won from the 3 post at the distance in May and when Kent Desormeaux gets on for his brother Keith, as is occurring here, we must take note as that is a profitable angle. Kent rode the horse to his maiden win 3 years ago on the SA turf so I would not want to leave this horse out as a contender and be kicking myself later.

 

 

Baby Bear's Soup has never raced at the trip and only twice on turf in 22 races, but he missed by a neck the last time he did and he's in excellent recent form with two wins and a third place finish. He gets a good post and rounds out a quintet of contenders in the nightcap.

 

 

Trifecta: Box R Cha Cha, Lauren's Ladd, Incensed, Cool Green and Baby Bear's Soup

Friday, 04 January 2019 13:51

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, January 5

 

Ginger Brew Stakes - Race 5 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:05 PM Eastern

 

What a Beaut won her only start, four weeks ago at this identical 7 1/2 furlong trip on turf. All eight (who are entered for turf) are newly turned three year old fillies and she opens high at 12/1 because she is the most lightly raced in the field, but that doesn't mean she can't win because she showed a lot of maturity when establishing good early position in third early, five lengths off the leader, and getting up to win by a neck in a field of 12. Lopez rides back and vast improvement is possible off the experience of a race. The 90 Equibase figure earned in her debut is the same as favorite Pivottina earned in her U.S. debut last September and not that far from the 96 earned when third in the Jimmy Durante Stakes in her most recent start, which provides more reasons to believe What a Beaut can win this year's Ginger Brew Stakes.

 

 

Beechwood Ella is the other main contender for betting purposes, making her U.S. debut and third career start. She imported from Europe in November and has put in six local works for Biancone. She gets blinkers and Lasix and Biancone has won with an import in a similar spot, using Maragh as he's doing here as well. She earned the equivalent of a 92 Equibase figure in her 2nd start so fits on all counts.

 

 

Pivottina, Boxwood and Fortunate Girl all can contend but none is a standout by any means.

 

 

Bets: What Beaut and Beachwood Ella to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more. Add a place bet on What a Beaut if 5 to 1 or higher.

 

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

 

Exactas:

What a Beaut and Beachwood Ella over What a Beaut, Beachwood Ella, Pivottina, Boxwood and Fortunate Girl.

 

 

Play the reverse of that exacta as well, which is What a Beaut, Beachwood Ella, Pivottina, Boxwood and Fortunate Girl over What a Beaut and Beachwood Ella.

 

 

$0.50 Pick 3: What a Beaut and Beachwood Ella in race 5 with ALL in race 6 with Fancy Dress Party in race 7.

 

 

Glitter Woman Stakes – Race7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:08 PM Eastern

 

Fancy Dress Party is a standout in this restricted stakes race, having won impressively in her debut last fall at Keeneland when rallying from seventh of 10 and drawing away powerfully, then proving that to be no fluke when drawing off to a two and one-quarter length win near the end of November at Churchill Downs in a field of 10. She's been working at Tampa and I imagine trainer Colebrook sees this spot as no more difficult than the second allowance level the filly is eligible for so ships her to Gulfstream and gets red hot Saez to ride. The logical choice for the runner-up spot is Brunette Princess, who has never been worse than second in three races and who gets John Velazquez to ride.

 

 

Bets: Fancy Dress Party to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more.

Exacta: Fancy Dress Party over Brunette Princes, also BOX Fancy Dress Party and Brunette Princess.

 

 

$0.50 Pick 3: Fancy Dress Party in race 7 with ALL in race 8 with Moon Colony and Bourbon in May in race 9.

$0.50 Pick 3: Fancy Dress Party in race 7 with ALL in race 8 with Royal Urn, Moon Colony, Bourbon in May, Dakota's Dude and Henley's Joy in race 9.

 

 

Kitten's Joy Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern

 

Bourbon in May opens at 10/1 and although that morning line won't hold up because Pletcher trains and leading jockey Saez rides, she will still be underbet relative to her probability to win. Bourbon In May debuted at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf last fall at Keeneland and finished well for second in a field of 10, then improve nicely to win by a pair of lengths in a field of 12 over this course on 12/1, at this 7 1/2 furlong turf trip. Saez was up then as now and the colt is bred to be something special so should continue to improve. The reason his odds will likely remain higher than they should is Henley's Joy opens at 3 to 5. That's just a bad morning line because when winning the Pulpit Stakes over the track on 12/8, Henley's Joy went to post at 6 to 5 and earned a 93 figure, no better than the 93 figure Bourbon in May earned in his debut, that figure tied for the best figure earned by any horse in the field.

 

 

Moon Colony has won his last two turf routes, in October and at the end of November. He ran poorly on dirt in between the wins but that effort is irrelevant. Jose Ortiz rides and the maiden win earned a 92 figure nearly on par with the best figures Bourbon in May and Henley's Joy so Moon Colony, who opens at 8/1,deserves a lot of respect when considering which horses we want to bet to win in this race.

 

 

I wouldn't talk anyone out of ANY other horse in the field given the fact if Henley's Joy goes to post as the prohibitive favorite there could be excellent value on many others.

 

 

Bets: Bourbon in May and Moon Colony to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Consider place bets on either or both if their odds are 5 to 1 or more near post time.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Exacta: Bourbon in May and Moon Colony over ALL.

 

 

Sham Stakes - Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:04 Eastern / 4:04 Pacific

 

Sueno can post the upset in this race based on the way he took to two-turns last month when winning the Gold Rush Stakes. Having been away from the races for three months, Sueno maturely rallied from fifth to draw off late and earn a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure. Although the Gold Rush was run on all-weather, Sueno proved capable on dirt prior to that with a four and three-quarter length win in a field of 10. Kent Desormeaux gets the mount for the first time on Sueno and that's a very positive angle according to STATS Race Lens. In the past five years, horse trained by Keith Desormeaux which get a jockey change to Kent Desormeaux have won 25% of the time on 72 races and betting those 72 horses to win has returned a healthy 25% profit. The dam has produced four other horses besides Sueno, and all four are dirt route winners, which provide more reasons to suggest Sueno can improve nicely off his first route win last time out and post the upset in this year's Sham Stakes.

 

Gunmetal Gray won his two-turn debut in August by nearly seven lengths. He followed up that effort with a career-best 100 figure earned when second to four and one-half length winner Game Winner in the American Pharoah Stakes in September. Like Game Winner, Gunmetal Gray returned five weeks later to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but he did not run as well, finishing fifth after being as far back as 12th in the 13 horse field. Rested two months in preparation for his three year old campaign, Gunmetal Gray gets the services of Mike Smith and has stakes experience three others in the field lack, including likely favorite Coliseum. As such, if Gunmetal Gray can logically improve off his American Pharoah effort as a much more physically mature three year old, he can run well enough to win this race.

 

Gray Magician broke his maiden impressively in his most recent race, by nine and one-half lengths, but facing stakes competition could be a whole different matter. However, Gray Magician earned a 98 figure while winning at this mile trip and following two months off so improvement is possible. Gray Magician has excellent breeding for the trip as well, as his half-brother Lombo won the 2018 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (in February) at Santa Anita. Grey Magician also showed a lot of maturity in his most recent race as he rallied from third, five lengths back, to win by nearly 10 lengths.

 

I feel I must mention Coliseum as he may be the betting favorite based on his easy six and three-quarter length win in his only race, in which he led from nearly start to finish and earned a field high104 figure. That style may be problematic in the Sham as Savagery puts blinkers back on and will likely be sent to the front from the start. However, Coliseum does have history on his side because his trainer, Bob Baffert, has won 33% of the time (14 for 42) when starting a horse off a debut maiden win in a stakes race over the last five years, including Midnight Hawk in this race back in 2014.

 

Bets: Sueno to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

 

 

Exacta: Sueno over ALL, and the reverse, which is ALL over Sueno.

Exacta: Gray Magician and Gunmetal Gray over Sueno, Gray Magician, Savagery, Easy Shot and Much Better. (Leaving Coliseum off the runner-up spot because it will be a low paying exacta). 

Friday, 28 December 2018 20:44

Are you Talking to Me

Past the Wire     Tracking Tips Logo

 

December 28, 2018

Are You Talking To Me?

By: Jonathan Stettin


 


I have always felt if you can’t say something better yourself, then use a good quote. Robert De Niro in Taxi Driver comes to mind for this one. It’s a classic film, and the quote is “you talkin' to me.” It’s a great scene and line, and I could not do it justice here. That said I think we can put the quote to some good use and it definitely fits. At least for me.

Right up front, I’ll say I am not going to call out anyone individually. No names. No networks or racetracks either. If you know who I am referring too that is great but no names.

I can sort of, but not really, give some major networks a pass for their coverage of our classic races. Sure it is terrible for true players and Racetrackers, but at least there are some casual once a year people watching those broadcasts. During the course of the year, however, the only people tuned in watching horse racing channels are bettors or horseman. I have to ask, who do they think they are talking to? “Are you talking to me?”

The other day on one of the racing networks the subject of the pick 6 came up and how some people prefer the $2 version as opposed to the 20 cent jackpot version. The analyst said, "well they could always play it for $2 if they prefer that." The other analyst agreed. Neither bothered to discuss the ramifications of that advice or solution or what is involved in it. Theoretically, you could do this, but the gripe is based more towards the jackpot format than the denomination although it is a factor. That part of it was ignored.

Another day an analyst was discussing a carryover in a multi race wager. The pool had climbed obviously in increments to just over 700K. The analyst said the pool goes up to 700K in one flash. That’s a deceptive statement geared towards someone who has no clue what’s going on. “You talkin to me?” Well, we’re the ones watching and listening so who are you talking to? They then go on to state once the pool hit a cool million that for 50 cents you are playing for a life-changing million dollars. Come on, seriously. You probably have about the same chance of hitting power ball as you do of hitting the only ticket on a 50 cent play in a multi race wager with a large carryover. You can’t be talking to me so who are you talking to?

For some reason, ADW’s and racetracks love to push and focus on multi race wagers. Pick 3’s 4’s and 5’s is all you hear. Very little about win, exactas, triples or superfectas. I guess they forgot those wagers generate more churn thus handle. All day long another multi race wager is starting. Are they talking to you?

This was a classic also. Truly an all time social media racing moment. A high profile guy attacks a tout for selling their picks. He points out anyone who picks winners doesn’t sell picks. He blasts all who sell picks and identifies touts as ones who charge. Hey, it’s their opinion, and they are entitled to it. Shortly thereafter this same industry person plugs a tout and their picks. Interesting. It gets better. This same person then offers to sell their picks because they are that good and offers a money back guarantee if no positive ROI is reached by playing. Well, we know how this book ends. No positive ROI and guarantee canceled. Nonetheless, the tout basher is, last I heard, a full-blown tout. Who are they talking to?

The other day an announcer called a $6,250 claimer who went out in 22,45 under pressure as not having gone that fast. What? "Are you talking to me?" Idiot, I singled the horse in a multi race wager, and I knew I was cooked turning for home, and he had opened about 5. Nailed of course. Not that fast.

What I am trying to illustrate here is part of a bigger picture. There are so many more examples of our industry just disconnecting with their core customer, the gambler. People following racing coverage don’t want to be spoken too like they don’t have a clue by people who make it sound like they don’t have a clue, and I don’t know maybe some of them don’t, but some do. Those that do should act accordingly in my opinion as it would make the coverage all the better for who matters, their gambler customers.

Friday, 28 December 2018 13:11

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, December 29

 

Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 3 PM Eastern

 

Forever Liesl shows up nearly every time, this year off the board just once in seven races. She ships in from New York for Nevin and the last time she came to Maryland she won, in August, at this one turn mile trip here at Laurel. Carrasco rode her then as well as to a six length win two starts later in September and the filly wasn't disgraced a bit when second to a six length winner in the Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm Handicap, herself six clear of the next horse. Carrasco rode Lady Vicky to a win three weeks ago over the track and chooses this filly which is another sign for a big effort. With the favorite, Sower, a contender but not a standout, but opening at 2/1 and likely going to post at those odds or lower, we may get around the 5/1 morning line on this gal and that would make her a good bet.

 

 

Lake Ponchatrain may be underbet as well, opening at 6/1, as she ships in from Mahoning Valley. She ran 2nd in a similar stakes at Laurel in July and was 5 to 2 that day and she won her last start nicely. Like Forever Liesl, Lake Ponchatrain shows up nearly every time, evidenced by 11 first or second place finishes in 13 races this year. Rosado rode her beautifully the last three times he was in the saddle, winning twice and missing a nose in the other race.

 

 

Sower is 4 for 8 in her career and ships in from Belmont for Rice, who does very well with shippers to Maryland, particularly with Karamanos aboard as here. The jockey rode the filly to her first two wins this spring in Maryland, before she went to New York and won a stakes. She may not be as good now as then as she's only 1 for 5 since and her mediocre effort earlier this month when third in a non-graded stakes similar to this one would see her beaten here if repeated, so she's going to need to run the race she ran before that but that was in the mud and she's going to need to prove she can win at a mile as she's trying the distance for the first time, whereas Forever Liesl has won at the trip. I'm defensively using her but mostly trying to beat her.

 

 

Bets: Forever Liesl to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher, AND Lake Ponchatrain at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

 

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

 

 

Exactas:

Forever Liesl and Lake Ponchatrain over ALL.

Box Forever Liesl, Lake Ponchatrain and Sower.

 

 

Doubles: Forever Liesl, Lake Ponchatrain and Sower in race 7 with Cautious Giant, Midtowncharlybrown, Laki and Colonel Sharp in Race 8.

 

 

Dave's Friend Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel - Post Time 3:30 PM Eastern

 

Colonel Sharp is 4-for-8 this year and in my mind has won two in a row. He won his most recent race, at Laurel on 11/16 and he won on 9/1 at Timonium. Before the last win he ran on turf and before that he was overmatched badly in the DeFrancis Stakes. The 9/1 race was a stakes like this one and last out he beat a classified allowance field easily. He can win on the lead or from off the pace and Acosta, who was up for both recent wins, rides back. The cut back from seven furlongs to six doesn't hurt and he's earned four of his seven career wins at the basic six furlong trip as well. Opening at 5 to 1, he could definitely be a great bet.

 

Midtowncharlybrown just posted the 10/1 upset in the $200K Fabulous Strike Stakes at the trip, beating a solid group of sprinters. He won back to back last fall and is 8 for 16 in his career. Like Colonel Sharp, Midtowncharlybrown has the capacity to win on the lead or from off the pace. I think morning line second choice Altissimo is vulnerable because even though he's 13 for 32 the wins have been earned in Ohio versus Ohio Breds and his trainer is just 3 for 38 with shippers the past two years, none in Maryland. With a potentially overbet second choice in the race, Midtowncharlybrown, who opens at 9/2, gives us a decent return for the risk with a horse who has every right to earn his 9th career win.

 

Cautious Giant is a must use on any exacta tickets because he's been first or second in 13 of 19 races this year and last. He ships in from Gulfstream where he won at 75K stakes one before last so he fits, while Laki is another must use off his win three weeks ago over the track. However, that win came in a stakes for Maryland breds only and his other two wins this year came when moved up to first via a disqualification and in an allowance race.  We'll throw in a nice longshot for 2nd in Team Tim, who opens at 20/1. He's not much for winning but he puts in a late kick to pass many horses a lot.

 

Bets: Colonel Sharp and Midtowncharlybrown to win at 5 to 2 or higher. Consider a win bet, for a lesser amount, on Cautious Giant at 3 to 1 or more.

 

Always try to use a "Dutching" tool when making multiple win bets as it provides help with maximizing profit. Amwager offers you one for free along with many other perks.

 

Exacta: Colonel Sharp, Midtowncharlybrown, Cautious Giant and Laki over Colonel Sharp, Midtowncharlybrown, Cautious Giant, Laki and Team Tim.

 

 

Alex M. Robb Stakes – Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:47 PM Eastern

 

I usually forego statebred stakes, unless there's value to be had, and I think Winston's Chance offers superb value in this race, opening at 8/1. Favorites Mr. Buff (2/1 morning line) and Control Group (9/5 morning line) are just two of FOUR horses who appear incapable of rating off the pace as all I see are "1s" in their pp lines in the early stages. Mr. Buff draws the two hole and will go, but Black Tide will have to go from his outside post and Control Group just doesn't have anything but a need-the-lead style as well. Hit It Once More has shown speed on occasion and considering his trainer (Sciacca) also has deep closer Testosterone in the race, the early pace, no matter how slow, should be hotly contested. Winston's Chance rallied from fifth to win a sprint for NY breds only (like this one) in October and finished second to nine length winner Gold for The King (a very good horse) last out at seven furlongs over the track. He won his ONLY nine furlong race, in the summer of 2017 at Saratoga, and the stretchout from seven to nine furlongs is a pattern I really like, therefore I expect Winston's Chance to be gaining with every stride in the stretch and post the mild upset.

 

I'll also consider a win bet on Testosterone, who finished well from seventh of 11 last out to win at a mile and who is likely to benefit from the pace, as well as has won at this distance and has earned nearly half a million dollars so he's no slouch but just was off form for a long time before his win 13 days ago. He opens at 20/1, which makes him hard to ignore.

 

Bets: Winston's Chance to win at 2 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 3 to 1 or higher, a true KEY BET on the day.

Make a smaller win and place bet on Testosterone at 5 to 1 or higher.

 

 

Robert J. Frankel Stakes - Race 4 at Santa Anita - Post Time 4:34 PM Eastern (1:34 Pacific)

 

Excellent Sunset should be a low odds overlay, opening at 7/2, with every right to win this Grade 3 race just as she won the non-graded Crosby Stakes last month at Del Mar. Although overmatched off that win in the Grade 1 Matriarch, she managed to rally nicely from 13th to be beaten four lengths at the end. She's run very well in all four U.S. starts after importing from England in July, winning two and missing by a neck in the other. She gets a good post to sit in second early off the speedy Fahan Mura and can return to winning form in this situation.

 

 

Fahan Mura, as usual, is the one to catch as she likes to lead from the start. She too was overmatched in the Matriarch and faded to 12th of 13 BUT she was 2nd in the tougher G2 Goldikova Stakes one month earlier, here at SA, and won the Swingtime Stakes which was the same level as the Crosby so she has the same probability to win as Excellent Sunset here and would be no surprise.

 

 

Amboseli shipped from Cassidy's home base at SA in October to run in a pair of races in Kentucky, the first a 5th of 9 finish but the 2nd much better when rallying from 10th to 2nd to miss by a half-length at this 9 furlong trip. That was just about the best race of her career and she could run as well BUT she really doesn't like to win, evidenced by a 2-4-8 career record, so although she must be used on exacta and pick 3 tickets we must get decent odds before betting her to win. Escape Clause has won 9 of 12 this year, all on dirt except her last two on turf. She was moved up to 1st in the Crosby after Excellent Sunset was disqualified and the was beaten a pair of half-lengths in the G3 Red Carpet Stakes last month at the longer distance of 11 furlongs. Cutting back to 9 furlongs she could be rallying strongly once again and be in the thick of the action on the wire.

 

 

Bets: Excellent Sunset to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Consider a second win bet, for a smaller amount, on Amboseli at 4 to 1 or more.

 

 

Trifecta: With three of the four contenders also being the lowest odds on the morning line, I prefer playing the trifecta over playing the exacta, as follows (two tickets):

Excellent Sunset over Escape Clause, Fahan Mura and Amboseli over Escape Clause, Fahan Mura and Amboseli.

 

 

Fahan Mura and Amboseli over Excellent Sunset over Escape Clause, Fahan Mura and Amboseli.

 

Wednesday, 26 December 2018 15:17

Success of Failure

Past the Wire     Tracking Tips Logo

 

December 27, 2018

Success or Failure

By: Jonathan Stettin


 

The Pegasus and the unique purse structure it carries with it have only been around a few years. Thus far, I have been to all the runnings, and I intend to go again this year. The race has received some criticism about the depth of quality in the fields, and the buy-in slot system of the purse. The cost of attending has also come under criticism. While I think the current purse system may at some point have to change, overall I have to call the race and concept a success.

Any big money race with a decent size field is good for the game. Racing is built around gambling and having to put up a nice chunk of cash to buy a slot in a race is a gamble on a whole different level for owner/investors. It allows for wheeling and dealing including sponsoring a horse and competing for the big prize. You can do this without actually having a horse of your own if you are willing to take a shot, buy a slot and then sell or share it with an owner who actually has a horse. Most who have tried this approach have lost some money thus far, but the race and concept are still in their very early stages or infancy.

One of the many goals of the race was to keep some of the top horses around a tad longer. I think most in the sport are in favor of that. The timing of the race allows horses to compete and still hurry off to make the breeding season. It worked for California Chrome, Gun Runner, and appears it will for Accelerate as well. City of Light is also scheduled to run giving us two Breeders’ Cup winners competing against each other. I find that tough to knock.

Despite the hefty purse the race never garnered much international interest. Being run on dirt in late January likely has a lot to do with that, but this year Mexican Triple Crown winner and champion Kukulcan is scheduled to run. The addition of a turf race to go with the dirt edition will be unveiled this year. If it continues, the Europeans and others will start looking at it as an option. Big money will bring big horses even with this unique structure. For the Stronach Group it is a win as long as it lasts, as they are hosting a major purse race and not footing the whole bill.

Gulfstream is a beautiful venue. Unfortunately, it is just too small to host a Breeders’ Cup although it would be an ideal location. The high prices of the Pegasus have kept crowd size very comfortable so far. You can pretty much wager late and move comfortably around the facility taking in the horses without being too cramped. This is good but they do have to figure out a way to get the every day two dollar bettors in the door also. Maybe free entry vouchers or something to regulate Gulfstream attendees. That would be a nice and welcomed thank you.

The Pegasus is the last race on the card laden with supporting stakes. It anchors the late pick 4,5, and of course the Rainbow Pick 6. Last year Gun Runner won as the favorite, but the multi-race wagers paid well. There will be a lot of great wagering opportunities on the card, and you can count on decent field sizes and generous pools.

In the inaugural running Arrogate in the midst of his powerful string of races beat California Chrome so in only two years the race has quickly developed a little history. With two Breeders’ Cup winners squaring off with a Mexican champ thrown in we should have an interesting running again.

Gulfstream is and has been a speed favoring racetrack. Because of that mile and an eighth horses can get the Pegasus distance of a mile and a quarter over it. That will help City of Light the Breeders’ Cup Mile winner against Classic winner Accelerate. He might not have as good a chance over some other racing strips.

Remaining cognizant the whole purse system may change, thus far I have to call the Pegasus a win or success for the sport. I am looking forward to another strong running. I think we will see one.

HIGH FIVE: Racing is finally going to digital tattooing. Better late than never. Luis Contreras a nice 1000 win milestone.

LOW FIVE: It is the Holidays. Everyone gets a pass. I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!

Sunday, 23 December 2018 19:53

Key Races & Bets for Wednesday, December 26

La Brea Stakes - Race 6 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5 PM Eastern/ 2 PM Pacific

 

Spiced Perfection gets slight preference among a quartet of fillies which can win, with a great outside post to avoid any potential traffic trouble early and coming off a CAREER BEST effort at this 7 furlong trip in the Betty Grable Stakes last month. Although that was a statebred race, the 111 Equibase figure earned lines up favorably here compared to likely favorite Dream Tree, who earned a 106 winning the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes in her most recent start. Since adding blinkers, Spiced Perfection is 2-for-2 in dirt sprints and Prat, who rode her to victory last month when aboard for the first time, ride back. That last race has already become a KEY RACE as both the runner-up and third finishers came back to win and as a filly who has been ultra-consistent in her career, evidenced by a 5-4-1 record in 11 dirt races, Spiced Perfection could help us profit nicely in the race.

 

 

Mo See Call is another "NOW" horse, having won three in row, two in a row since moving from turf to dirt. She may not have beaten much in her two recent allowance wins by earned 103 and 111 figures, the most recent with Smith aboard, who rides back. Smith rode Dream Tree to victory in the Prioress when she traveled to New York and although Van Dyke has become Baffert's #1 rider of late it still is intriguing Smith and his agent take this mount. With three wins and a narrow defeat since adding blinkers in August and in the best form of her life, Mo See Cal is as strong a win contender as Spiced Perfection in my opinion.

 

 

Happy Like a Fool has one knock and that's the rail as she has good early speed but she's shown the ability to sit as far back as third early and still run big so she could be okay. She comes in off a sharp win with a 105 figure and won the Miss Preakness Stakes in May with a 111 figure. Trainer Ward shipped her in to train over the track over a month ago, a big sign he's been pointing her to this race and wants her ready on all counts. Ward is just so good at this level (32% wins on over 150 dirt sprints in the last year) we must respect this filly's chances to earn her 5th career win.

 

 

Dream Tree is going to be used defensively as she's likely to be the prohibitive favorite but I can't discount her as a win contender. She's undefeated in five start including three graded stakes and she won her only start at the trip.  She does have question marks as she was off from February to September then off until now, so she must have some issues. On the other hand she put in a stellar five furlong work on 12/9 followed by a pair of maintenance works and Baffert continues to win at a solid 25% clip with horses off layoffs, whether 2 to 6 months or 6 months or more.

 

 

Bets: Spiced Perfection and Mo See Cal to win at 5 to 2 or more. (Add a place bet if 5 to 1 or higher).

Minimum odds on Happy Like a Fool are 7 to 2.

 

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

 

Exactas:

1. Spiced Perfection and Mo See Cal

2. Box Spiced Perfection, Mo See Cal, Happy Like a Fool and Dream Tree.

 

Doubles and Pick 3's: Use ALL four horses.

 

Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes – Race7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern/ 2:30 Pacific

 

Shivermetimbers finds a field lacking in proven milers on grass and can win this race in his turf debut, particularly if likely favorite River Boyne doesn't cut back successfully from 9 furlongs to 8 furlongs. Shivermetimbers is bred to handle grass just fine as Shanghai Bobby has sired a number of turf winners and he has the right style to take advantage of what should be a very hot early pace. Snazzy Dresser, an absolute need-the-lead types, gets the extreme outside post and has to go fast to get to the rail, but Gemonteer and possibly Gidu will also be on or near the font early. Shivermetimbers rallied from 4th in his last two wins, BOTH under Smith, who rides back and who was also up for the colt's other win. His last two efforts yielded 113 and 114 Equibase figures which match up nicely with the 115 likely favorite River Boyne earned in the Twilight Derby so Shivermetimbers has every much of a chance to win as the favorite but will go to post at better odds.

 

 

River Boyne has no real knocks as he shows up every time. After making the lead by a length and one-half in the Hollywood Derby on 12/1, he was beaten near the wire by Raging Bull but was nearly three lengths clear of the next horse. He hasn't run a mile in nine months but won the non-graded Pasadena Stakes the last time he did and in terms of turf and stakes experience he is the one to beat.

 

 

Choo Choo forms an uncoupled Hollendorfer entry with Shivermetimbers and has a slight chance to win but a big chance to be in the exacta or trifecta. His two wins to date have come on turf and all-weather and his most recent effort when second and beaten under a length in the restricted Let It Ride Stakes last month earned him a career best 112 figure. That was his first start after six months off, second since adding blinkers, and better can be expected here particularly as Rosario fits his late running style nicely.

 

 

Bets: Shivermetimbers to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

"IF" Choo Choo should go to post anywhere near 7 to 2 or higher, make a smaller win bet on him as well.

 

 

Exactas:

1.Shivermetimbers and River Boyne

2. Box Shivermetimbers, River Boyne and Choo Choo.

3. Shivermetimbers, River Boyne and Choo ChooShivermetimbers, River Boyne, Choo Choo, Sejo, Gidu, Desert Stone, Gemonteer and Snazzy Dancer.

 

Doubles and Pick 3's: Use Shivermetimbers, River Boyne and Choo Choo.

 

 

San Antonio Stakes - Race 8 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6 PM Eastern/ 3 Pacific

 

Beach View has a decent upset shot here and gets slight preference in a race where four horses (of 9) have almost all the probability to win in my opinion. Of his 11 career starts, 8 were on turf and of the other three, only two were routes. However, both those efforts were exceptional. Both were at 12 furlongs but he's run well at a mile on turf so I'm not concerned about his ability to handle the trip. He returned from four months off last month and rallied decently enough for 3rd in the G2 Hollywood Turf Cup at 12 furlongs. He might have run even better but was blocked during a critical portion of the stretch run. Even though that trouble may be enough to back him here, it's his effort prior to that which, if repeated, could help him earn the upset as when winning the G3 Cougar II Handicap by five lengths in dominating fashion he not only earned a career best tying 112 figure which isn't far from the best in the field, he beat multi-millionaire Hoppertunity with ease. Bejarano was up for both efforts, the only two times he's ridden the horse, and rides back, which provides me with enough reasons to take a big swing with Beach View.

 

Gift Box is very interesting here as he shipped west sometime in the past few months after being privately purchased (from Farish, with Chad Brown as his trainer) by Hronis racing and sent to the Sadler barn. Considering Sadler's success with dirt stakes stars the past year, this five year old could turn into something special. Even though it took him six tries to move through the 2nd allowance level, he was very competitive, missing twice by inches before an eight length win in March with a career best 114 figure. The only knock is coming back from 9 months off around two turns and in a graded stakes BUT the works are excellent, Rosario rides, and if Sadler is confident I won't argue.

 

Battle of Midway and Dabster are likely to be the two favorite and both are logical contenders, but not standouts. Battle of Midway has yet to run as well as when winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in the fall of 2017 but got close in his last two efforts, particularly his win in the G3 Native Diver at this trip last month with a 117 figure. Dabster was neck shy of his foe in the race, BUT we must note it was essentially a match race, a three horse field in which the other horse was never involved.

 

 

Bets: Beach View to win at odds of 5/2 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

For a slightly smaller amount, Gift Box to win at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

 

 

Exacta and Trifecta: Box Beach View, Gift Box, Battle of Midway and Dabster.

 

 

Doubles: Use all four horses.

 

Malibu Stakes - Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern/ 3:30 Pacific

 

Bobby's Wicked One ships in from Louisiana by way of Ohio, having just missed by a nose in a $250K sprint for three year olds. It was his second start after coming back from six month off and he's on a pattern for an even better effort here. Based on the barn of top trainer Al Stall, the well bred colt is bred to handle 7 furlongs just fine although to date he has a runner-up and third place finish at the trip and the previously mentioned pattern off 101 and 109 Equibase figures, with a great post and a lot of early pace to stalk, Bobby's Wicked One could post the upset in this year's Malibu.

Copper Bullet was thought to be a Derby prospect last summer (2017) after winning the Saratoga Special but had issues which kept him on the shelf for 15 months. He returned last month at Churchill Downs as if he had never been away, winning easily by 3 1/2 lengths in a new career best effort (110 figure) and has every right to take a big step forward 2nd off the layoff. Asmussen has been pointing him to this race as he shipped the colt in right after the last win for three works over the track and getting Jose Ortiz (2nd in the jockey race for 2018 and just behind his brother  Irad Ortiz, Jr.) the colt would be no surprise if winning this race.

McKinzie and Kanthaka are very likely to go to post as the first and second betting choices here based on their performances in graded stakes this year and both can win or be part of the exacta but they are not standouts. McKinzie moves back to three year olds only after finishing 12th of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He won the San Felipe Stakes over the track in March with a 118 figure then had issues and was off for nine months, returning to win the Pennsylvania Derby. The 114 figure in the PA Derby was fine and he broke his maiden at this distance. He's been working fine but this year's Malibu drew a very strong field compared to what he faced in the PA Derby and he has his work cut out for him although he could be up to the task and that's why I'm not completely taking a stand against him. Kanthaka is a ONE-TURN horse, proven by winning the San Vicente Stakes over the track at the distance in February with a 113 figure, then by running not nearly as well around two turns in the San Felipe and Blue Grass, then by winning the Barrera Stakes in May when turned back to this trip. Rested since then, he's working like he can pick up where he left off and must be respected as a contender as well.

 

 

Bets: Bobby's Wicked One to win and place at 7 to 2 or more.

Copper Bullet to win at 7 to 2 odder or more.

 

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

 

Exactas:

Copper Bullet and Bobby's Wicked One

Copper Bullet, Bobby's Wicked One, Kanthaka and McKinzieCopper Bullet, Bobby's Wicked One, Kanthaka, McKinzie, Axelrod and Nero

Friday, 14 December 2018 14:30

The Feature Race

Past the Wire     Tracking Tips Logo

 

December 14, 2018

The Feature Race

Plus my take on the Horse of the Year debate and Santa Anita’s new wager

By: Jonathan Stettin



At the very least, on just about every weekend day of racing the “major” racetracks had a feature race. This was almost always a stake, often a graded stake, and was carded towards the end of the program. In New York, way back when, it was the seventh race of nine but later on moved to the eighth of nine, or customarily the next to last race. This gave the racing fans, and bettors alike, something to look forward to.

Horse racing is a fantastic sport to view live. It is exciting, competitive and features both phenomenal equine and human athletes. The top horses and riders who competed at these high level meets developed strong followings and people came not only to wager but to see them compete.

Along with a changing and evolving world, the Sport of Kings has changed. The history and traditions of the game are evaporating or being brushed aside. I’m all for change for the better. For the worse not so much.

Today the feature races, for the most part, have been combined into what we now call super Saturdays. I was middle of the road on this concept as it developed. I was initially against moving the Metropolitan Mile from Memorial Day to Belmont Stakes Saturday. I’ll admit on the first Saturday they ran it that way I loved the card and thought I saw the light. I was wrong.

While these super days are great when we run them, they leave a sour wake for days and even weeks to follow. The Sunday feature, often a stake, is now usually an optional claiming race if we are lucky. For example, last Sunday three major tracks ran the following feature races:

Aqueduct, a starter allowance race for horses who previously ran for a claiming price of $16,000.

Gulfstream Park- Claiming $16,000 and have never won three races.

Los Alamitos- California breds which have never won three races other than maiden, claiming, or starter, or which have never won two races or a claiming price of $20,000.

Obviously, racing secretaries have to get creative to fill races. Back in the day conditioned allowance races would fill without all these innovations to the condition book. Today we have to accept these newer types of races, but do we really have to cram the stakes into the big days and leave a void for up to weeks following? Is this the way to get people coming to the races, or have tracks folded their hands? Many may not mind the lack of a stake most days. However, I think history shows the interest and excitement they generate, and that spacing out as opposed to cramming it in looks more like a recipe for growth. The competition and athletes are our strengths, we need to show them off more not less, and stakes do that.

So there is a horse of the year debate. I think the Eclipse awards have lost luster and significance due to some shall we say, weak voting. Nonetheless, people are talking and voicing their opinions. It comes down to Justify and Accelerate. I found it on the border of silly when Bob Baffert and John Sadler were interviewed about whom they thought deserved it. Seriously. Bob likes Justify, and John likes Accelerate. What a surprise. Did we really have to ask that?

I am with Bob on this one. John Sadler brought out a great point in that Accelerate was good enough to get him his first Breeders’ Cup in over 40 tries, but that isn’t enough. Accelerate had a great year, a championship year for sure. I’m not arguing who I think would handle who on the racetrack. That’s a different discussion and will always be subjective. The Triple Crown is one of the toughest things in all sports to accomplish, not just the Sport of Kings but all of sports. Add doing so without racing at two, which broke a very old streak that goes back to Apollo, and you have to give the nod to Justify. Historically, there are so few Triple Crown winners for a very good reason. Sadler did a fantastic job and plotted a great course, and they executed beautifully. They just did it in a Triple Crown year. History is history. Sure Justify retired sooner than we would have liked. He still won the Triple Crown. It was but a few years back when all the talk was to change the sequence, it is too hard. We won’t see another one. It is hard indeed. Horse of the Year hard.

Santa Anita has come up with a new Roulette wager. Kudos for trying but this sounds like a silly bet to me. Apparently, they will group horses into three color categories, red, black, and green. You bet a separate win pool on the color and thus the horses in that group, and if one of those wins so do you. We’ll see I guess.

 

Friday, 14 December 2018 14:14

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, December 15

 

Race 7 at Gulfstream - Post Time 3:03 PM Eastern

 

Gran Causeway will likely go to post favored depending on how heavily bet the two Pletcher first time starters (Bebeau and French Revolution) get, BUT Thetrashmanscoming is the best bet (to win at least) of four contenders to win this race. Thetrashmanscoming is finally coming around after running his best race yet last month in his fifth career start. At the same one-turn mile trip as today's race, he broke slowly, REALLY slowly, to be last of 12 and 17 lengths back, but by the end he was third and moving nicely. He is bred exceptionally well as six of the other seven foals of his dam broke their maidens in straight maiden races on dirt like this one and the 88 last race Equibase figure is the best in the field so if he improves upon it he can post the mild upset, opening at 10/1. Gran Causeway ran on from 11 lengths back early when 5th to get second at the end into a five length winner and can improve, but will need to as the effort earned only a 66 figure. The other two foals of his dam have run well, with 7 wins and 7 runner-up finishes in 26 races. There's nothing special to report about the Pletcher pair but Todd continues to win with 25% of his first time starters in straight maiden races at Gulfstream so they are mostly ready to run and spotted right.

 

 

Bets: Thetrashmanscoming to win at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

 

 

Double (Races 7 and 8) and Pick 3 (Races 7, 8 and 9):

Race 7 – Thetrashmanscoming, Gran Causeway, Bebeau, French Revolution

Race 8 – Electric Forest, Tweeting

Race 9 – Bellavais, La Moneda

 

 

Rampart Stakes – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:38 PM Eastern

 

Electric Forest can be any kind of filly sprinter as she makes her 2nd start after 6 1/2 months off to end her three year old campaign and began her four year old campaign. She won impressively first out in April then ran poorly before taking the six month break she returned from last month, repeating the 94 Equibase figure effort in a romp and with a lot of improving she can do here 2nd off the layoff for Brown, with Ortiz riding. We all know how Brown has had a career best year but looking at a subset of that, which applies to this filly, really tells a story. Moving horses up from allowance to stakes off a win in the last five years, Brown is 17 for 87 including a 6 for 19 record in the last 12 months.

 

 

Tweeting was claimed for a pretty paltry 40K in April then sent to Casse at Woodbine where she finished 2nd in an all-weather route. Moved to Navarro for her next start, first on dirt in 14 months, she destroyed the field by 12 before leading late and coming up a half-length short on the wire in a little stakes at Laurel near the end of September. Given a couple more months off, if she runs as well as she did off the layoff in August she can win, given that effort earned her a 96 Equibase figure. However, as stated previously a lot will depend on how big a step forward Electric Forest takes off her comeback win last month.

 

 

Bets: Electric Forest to win at 3 to 2 or more, a true low odds overlay.

 

Double (Races 8 and 9), Pick 3 (Races 8, 9 and 10), Pick 4 (Races 8, 9, 10 and 11):

 

Race 8 – Electric Forest, Tweeting

Race 9 – Bellavais, La Moneda

Race 10 – Awestruck, Stormy Embrace, Dream Pauline, Surprise Wedding

Race 11 – Glorious Empire, Projected, Qurbaan, Hi Happy, Mr Havercamp

 

 

My Charmer Stakes  - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park- Post Time 4:05 PM Eastern

 

La Moneda shows up EVERY TIME, with four wins and a runner-up effort in her last five races, all on grass, the last two in stakes. Even though those last two were against statebred company in New York, the 105 and 107 Equibase figures are as good as any in here who have run well recently in "open" (not restricted) company. Those five "A" efforts all came when Morley was the named trainer, and the trainer saddled her to a win and a runner-up effort last year in two races under his care as well, so we can expect a top effort and I just hope her 5/1 starting odds hold up.

 

Bellavais took 11 months off from November to October and returned in the Pletcher barn to win at a mile on grass at Belmont, in a decent classified allowance field. She was no slouch before that, with 3 wins in 10 career tries on turf and a stakes win so moving into this grade 3 level is no issue, particularly as Castellano (up for the first time last out) rides back and she gets the rail. Off the 11 month layoff, Bellavais earned a 105 figure and so with logical 2nd off the layoff physical improvement looming she is the other gal with the bulk of the probability to win this race.

 

For exactas and trifectas I'll also use Conquest Hardcandy, possibly a lone front runner and a filly who has been first or second in six of 11 career turf races.

 

Bets: La Moneda and Bellavais to win at odds of 2 to1 or more.

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Exacta: La Moneda and Bellavais over La Moneda, Bellavais and Conquest Hardcandy.

 

Trifectas (two tickets):

La Moneda and Bellavais over La Moneda, Bellavais and Conquest Hardcandy over ALL.

La Moneda and Bellavais over ALL over La Moneda, Bellavais and Conquest Hardcandy.

 

Sugar Swirl Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:36 PM ET

 

Stormy Embrace was completely over her head in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf Sprint last month but before that she was top notch, winning four of her six races this year including the tougher Grade 2 Princess Rooney Stakes in June over the track. That effort earned a 110 Equibase figure, no fluke as she had earned a 107 figure three months earlier winning a handicap at Tampa Bay Downs easily. She can win on the lead or from off the pace and is the one to beat.

 

In spite of Stormy Embrace being the one to beat, Awestruck opens lower at 2/1 (compared to 3/1 for Stormy Embrace). I suppose it's because she finished a troubled second behind solid sprinter Vertical Oak in a stakes last month at Churchill but she wasn't going to beat the other filly in spite of traffic issues on the backstretch and the effort earned her a 99 figure, the third time this year she's earned that figure and it's not good enough to beat Stormy Embrace if she repeats her 6/30, 3/10 or 1/21 efforts in this situation. Just the same, Awestruck does have a shot if the top pick doesn't fire.

 

Also worth a look, particularly for pick 3 and 4 tickets, are Dream Pauline and Surprise Wedding. Dream Pauline is a lightly raced filly with a two-for-three record. She was third and three lengths behind Awestruck in that stakes won by Vertical Oak last month but she had trouble as well. She earned a 96 figure winning before that and has a nice shot to step up and run a career best race today. Surprise Wedding gets Jose Ortiz and a good outside post as she moves back to dirt off an irrelevant try on turf. She won her last dirt start handily with a 99 figure and was a stakes winner (vs Florida breds only) a year ago so can't be ruled out opening at 8/1.

 

 

Bets: Stormy Embrace to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

 

 

Exacta: Stormy Embrace and Awestruck over Stormy Embrace, Awestruck, Dream Pauline and Surprise Wedding. For about half the above wager, play the reverse as well, which is Stormy Embrace, Awestruck, Dream Pauline and Surprise Wedding over Stormy Embrace and Awestruck.